Back in January we took a look at the workload of each of the starting pitchers in 2009 and 2010. The result was a ginormous red flag next to David Price’s name that left us a little worried that he might not pitch as well in 2011.
Here is what we said back then:
Price’s numbers raise a red flag. In 2010, Price had 14 starts with at least 110 pitches and saw his innings pitched increase by 36.1% over the year before. That is a lot of stress on Price’s
What we should have added was that is an enormous amount of stress on an arm that was just 24 years old in 2010.
Some call it the “Verducci Effect,” a term coined by Will Carroll, who showed that pitchers under the age of 25 have a higher probability of regression or even injury if they experience a sharp increase in innings over the previous year.
Whatever you want to call it, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that Price is struggling.
It also raises the question if maybe the Rays should shut Price down at some point to give his arm a break and start preparing for 2012.