In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have released their “The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.”
In the Projection Blowout, stats from five different projection systems are used to project the 2011 season using the “Diamond Mind” simulator. Each set of projected stats is used to simulate “hundreds of thousands” of seasons. The projected stats used include Bill James, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver and PECOTA.
In the overall projections (averaging the 5 systems), the Rays, on average, finish 3rd in the AL east with 86.1 wins. Last year the Rays were projected to finish third with 91.2 wins.
Below we have summed up the results from each of the projection systems for just the Rays. Data for 2007-10 are how the Rays performed those seasons. We have added a few notes below the table (click “Read the rest…”)
A few notes on the projections…
- The Red Sox are projected to finish first with 94.4 wins and the Yankees are second at 92.4 wins. In the projections, the winner of the AL East won an average of 98 games and the Wild Card winner won an average of 92 games.
- The Rays actually are projected to finish third in each of the individual projections, with the Red Sox projected to finish first in each of the projections.
- The Rays are projected to score 40 runs less this season, and give up 55 more runs than a year ago. This would translate to an 87-75 record based on the Pythagorean Win Percentage.