We rarely gamble, but when we do, we have always been big fans of team win total over/unders. For those not familiar, that is where Vegas sets a win total for a team, and you have to guess whether that team will win more or less games than that figure.
Bookmaker.com just released their over/unders for the 2011 baseball season. Now, keep in mind that Vegas is not trying to predict how many games each team will win. Rather, they are trying to predict what the public thinks. Bookmakers set lines that they think will bring in equal money on both sides.
The Rays’ over/under according to Bookmaker is 84.5 wins. That agrees quite favorably with PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), who projects the Rays to win 84 games using statistical projections of each player.
Over at Business Insider, I compared each team’s Vegas over/under to their PECOTA projection number. This gives us an idea of which teams might be underrated by the public and which teams aren’t as good as most think. You might be surprised by the results.
Which Major League Teams Could Surprise You The Most This Season [Business Insider]