We rarely gamble, but when we do, we have always been big fans of team win total over/unders. For those not familiar, that is where Vegas sets a win total for a team, and you have to guess whether that team will win more or less games than that figure.

Bookmaker.com just released their over/unders for the 2011 baseball season. Now, keep in mind that Vegas is not trying to predict how many games each team will win. Rather, they are trying to predict what the public thinks. Bookmakers set lines that they think will bring in equal money on both sides.

The Rays’ over/under according to Bookmaker is 84.5 wins. That agrees quite favorably with PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus), who projects the Rays to win 84 games using statistical projections of each player.

Over at Business Insider, I compared each team’s Vegas over/under to their PECOTA projection number. This gives us an idea of which teams might be underrated by the public and which teams aren’t as good as most think. You might be surprised by the results.

Which Major League Teams Could Surprise You The Most This Season [Business Insider]

 
 

2 Comments

  1. dustin says:

    I worry a bit about people underestimating the Orioles. I don’t think they’re likely to make the post-season, but I’m pretty sure they’re going to be a much better team this year than they’ve been for the past decade or so. I’m not so sure picking them to be under .500 is a safe bet this year.

  2. Sean says:

    The Orioles are really turning it around fast. You gotta remember, if they turn out better than expected (I have them at around 83 wins, but in my opinion theyre a preseason darkhorse to make the playoffs), that means the parity in the AL East gets even closer. At least for 2010, you’d look at the Yanks getting tangled up with Toronto and Baltimore since NYY has so many questions all over the pitching staff (compared to Boston and ourselves). On a related note, it makes me wonder how PECOTA has NYY so high. Their rotation and bullpen, from a projection standpoint, are questionable at best and bad at worst. The offense will be there, but the Rays and Red Sox consistently total seasonal runs at, over, or near the Yanks, and have done so even prior to the Rays burst into relevance in 08.

    I think the AL East champ is Boston at 90-91 wins, with the Rays taking the WC somewhere around 88. NYY, Baltimore, and Toronto will be around 86, 83, and 80 respectively. I say this because the only way the Yankees get a piece midseason is emptying out an already depleted farm, which Cashman has expressed an aversion to. If the Yanks are stuck with the likes of Hughes, Nova, and Mitre in the rotation – and a suspect bullpen at best – only a breakout season by a lowly regarded starter puts them into the WC convo. In addition, I think people continue to underestimate the Rays FO. This bullpen won’t compare to last year, obviously, but it will still be serviceable. Baltimore is still a year or two away, and Toronto is going backwards.

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