The PECOTA projection system at Baseball Prospectus is out and the they have the forecast for the AL East. In it, the Rays are projected to finish third at 84-78, which is right about where we would think they should be. Interestingly, they have the Red Sox winning the East at just 92-70 and the Yankees in second at 91-71.

Of course, the Rays may have the biggest margin of error in the group. And that depends a lot on the bullpen. If one or two guys step up and give Joe Maddon “Benoitian” performances, this team could be in the hunt for 93-95 wins and the Wild Card. But if the bullpen is a big pile of donkey doo doo, this team might struggle to finish .500.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA

  • The moment you all have been waiting for: Joe Maddon’s slogan for 2011: “Another Away”…Also in this piece, Roger Mooney writes that the Rays may add a player this week, with Lance Cormier as a possibility. [TBO.com]
  • Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman met with the media yesterday. Roger Mooney has the highlights. [TBO.com]
  • Juan Cruz may be late to camp due to visa issues. Also, Marc Topkin reports that Manny Ramirez is expected in camp on Monday. [TampaBay.com]
  • In addition to the pieces of turf, the Rays will also be having a “yard sale” with game-used bats and such. [TampaBay.com]
  • We’re beginning to think the Rays spring training complex is cursed. First there were the wild boars and Pat Burrell. This year there was the bat infestation. And yesterday a small brush fire broke out. [TampaBay.com]
  • John Romano writes about how the Rays’ starting rotation gives the team hope for 2011. [TampaBay.com]
  • Just when you thought the Mets off-season couldn’t get any worse, Jason Isringhausen has signed a minor league deal with New York’s broke team. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • This makes sense>> One of the practice fields at the Rays Spring Training complex has been outfitted with AstroTurf. Of course, we have no idea why the main field is not AstroTurf, but hey, why practice on what you will play 81 games on. [Sarasota Herald-Tribune]
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9 Comments

  1. Hosstyle in Tampa says:

    "Interestingly, they have the Red Sox winning the East at just 92-70 and the Yankees in second at 91-71."

    Give me a break...

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  2. Brixology says:

    Cork, which was the most accurate prediction system the past few years?

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    • Mike says:

      Here is last year's projections

      http://www.raysindex.com/2010/04/the-mathematical-definition-of-one-tough-ass-division.html

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  3. Don says:

    Let me see if I can make "Projections".....

    AL East: Red Soxs in a run away, Yankees/Rays don't win enough games to make the playoffs....because of Baltimore/Toronto beating both of them so often..

    Exception: Ramirez/Damon return to super star status of younger years
    Then NOBODY beats the Rays (Maddon stays out of the way)

    Did I cover all the bases: "Don's Projection System"

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  4. Scot says:

    This is a very early in the season projection. Last year, BP started with the Rays well behind the Yankees/Red Sox. However, by the time spring training broke, they had projected Yankees, closely followed by the Rays and the Red Sox trailing significantly. Other than the flip of Yankees, Rays, this was the outcome of the season.

    For those of you who understand a little statistics, the standard deviation of a 162 game season is about 6 games, hence there is about a 2/3rds chance the Rays end up within 6 games of the 84 total. A 96+ win season would be a very unlikely outcome (less than 2.5%). Something really significant would have to change in the team at this point for that to happen. But it could!!

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  5. Gus says:

    Looking at the 2008 and 2009 projections for the Rays seem to be the most applicable, as this team is most like those teams, the difference between the two teams being (primarily) bullpen performance and a good start. Either Maddon is going to patch a bullpen together like he did in 2008 or he'll fail in epic fashion like he did in 2007. But don't underestimate the value of a good start to a team that lost so much; they need to convince themselves and the fans that they are not the Marlins of 2004.

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