Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems uses a different set of projected stats and simulated the 2010 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.
Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 96-66, showing that the Rays played as would be predicted based on their run differential. By comparison, the Yankees Pythagorean Record was 97-65.
After two straight seasons in which CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays regular season record, CAIRO was the most robust this season, missing the Rays win total by just 2. CHONE missed by 9 wins.
Four of the five projections were spot-on when it came to projecting the number of runs the Rays would score. On the other hand, only CAIRO came close to projecting how well the Rays pitchers would perform.