PECOTA gives the Rays a 96.9% shot at making the playoffs. CoolStandings.com has the number at 91.3%. Sure the Rays are 30-11. But we are only one-quarter of the way through the season. Certainly those numbers are a little bloated, right?
In the Wild Card era, 12 American League teams have had a lead of at least 4 games on May 21. All 12 teams made the playoffs. The Rays lead right now (on May 21) is 5 games.
The criteria does not hold up as well in the National League. Eight teams have had at least a 4-game lead on May 21. Only 5 of those teams made the playoffs.
It is a long season. But we like the Rays chances.