It is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index in which we rank the top 45 players in the Rays organization based on their overall value to the team.
The TVI ranks every player on the 40-man roster and the top prospects. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in the organization.
Notes on how the rankings are compiled and a few specific players can be found after the table. Full calculations can be found at the end of this post…
Notes on the TVI top 45…
- The TVI is calculated using four variables: 1) talent (based on a reasonable projection of abilities); 2) age-value (based on age and years remaining until free agency); 3) position (based loosely on Bill James’ defensive spectrum) and 4) current level (i.e. MLB, triple-A, etc.). These values are all scaled 1-10 and given a weight of 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 respectively.
- Evan Longoria is the clear #1. The next 4 players (Jeremy Hellickson, David Price, Wade Davis, Matt Garza) all fall in a narrow range. But 6 years of Hellickson gives him just a tad more value than 4 more years of Price or 3 more years of Garza.
- At the other end of the spectrum we have mostly players that will be free agents at the end of the year. These players usually won’t command much in a trade.
- Players were given a “bonus” based on their free agent status (Type A or Type B). Even though these players will likely be gone next year, they will command one or two draft picks in compensation. The bonus was loosely based on the values of draft picks in the second-half of the first-round and the supplemental round. Players that will be free agents following the 2011 season were given half the free agency bonus.
- The one player that probably doesn’t fit this model is Carl Crawford. He has a low TVI value due to his pending free agency and he plays a non-premium position. But if the Rays were to try and trade him, he would probably command a steep price because he is considered a “difference maker.”
- Feel free to let us know in the comments if you feel their is variable that should be included in the TVI calculations and if you think the relative weights should be different. This is evolving process. And while we try to remove as much subjectivity as possible, the nature of the beast will always require at least a little bit.
FULL CALCULATIONS AFTER THE JUMP