In 2006 and 2007, we called this “The Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell.” In 2008 it was “The Mathematical Definition Of ‘The Rays Are Getting Warmer,” and last year it was “The Mathematical Definition Of “Rays Are In For A Dogfight.”
In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have released their “The 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.”
In the Projection Blowout, stats from five different projection systems are used to project the 2010 season. The 2010 season is projected using the “Diamond Mind” simulator and each set of projected stats is used to simulate 100,000 seasons. The projected stats used include CHONE, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA and CAIRO.
In the overall projections (500,000 seasons), the Rays on average, finish 3rd in the AL east with 91.2 wins. Last year the Rays were projected to finish third with 90.1 wins. The Yankees are first with 96.1 wins and the Red Sox are second at 92.9 wins. In the 500,000 projections, the winner of the AL East on average won 100 games and the Wild Card winner won an average of 94 games.
Below we have summed up the results from each of the projection systems for just the Rays.
A few notes on the projections…
- The Rays actually are projected to finish second using the Marcel, PECOTA and CAIRO projections while finishing third with the CHONE and Oliver stats.
- The Yankees are projected to finish first in all the projections except PECOTA which has the Red Sox first and the Rays second.
- The Rays are only projected for a slight improvement offensively (+7 runs scored) but a significant improvement is expected for the pitching (-48 runs allowed). This would translate to a 91-71 record based on the Pythagorean Win Percentage.