A recent look at several systems suggests the Rays will win about 91 games this season and finish third in the AL East. That’s nice, but what is the full potential for the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays?
In the PECOTA projections over at Baseball Prospectus they actually provide a range of projections for each player. The highest (best) projection for each player is their “90th percentile.” We decided to take a look at what the 2010 Rays would look like if each player played to their 90th percentile.
Notes on the projections are found after the tables…
Notes on the 90° PECOTA projections…
- We used all 25 players on the opening day roster as well as the two players on the DL.
- The offense is projected to score 1,189 runs. That number is based on 7,912 plate appearances. The 2009 Rays only had 6,223 plate appearances. Based on that number, the Rays would be projected to score 935 runs.
- The pitching staff is projected to allow 686 earned runs in 1,814 innings. Last year, the Rays pitched 1,427.1 innings and the total runs allowed was about 10% more than their earned run total. Based on those numbers, the projected runs allowed were scaled back to 593 total runs.
- Based on Pythagorean Win Expectation, scoring 935 runs and allowing 593 would translate to a .697 winning percentage or a record of 113-49.