Why Jeremy Hellickson Might Not Make His Debut In 2010
David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis March 9th. 2010, 10:00amThe Rays have a nice problem in Jeremy Hellickson. His is one of the top prospects in baseball and already has dominated triple-A batters striking out 70 and walking just 15 in 57.1 innings last year. But with all five of the starting pitchers returning from last year, there is no immediate need for Hellboy on the big league roster.
Still, most think Hellickson will make his big league debut at some point in 2010. But the Rays have always been adamant that the needs of the prospect outweigh the needs of the team. In other words, Hellickson will not be promoted until the team feels he is ready.
And when might that be?
First there is the innings limit the Rays will impose on Hellickson this season. The Rays prefer to limit their pitchers to a 20% increase over the previous season and Hellickson only threw 114 innings in 2009. That would mean a limit of approximately 140 innings this year. A full season in the minors would be closer to 160 innings. So even if the Rays waited until September and used Hellickson out of the bullpen, there is a very good chance he will have already exceeded his innings limit for 2010.
Next, let’s look at Hellickson’s experience and compare that to the Rays last two top pitching prospects, David Price and Wade Davis. Specifically let’s look at how many seasons and innings pitched each had since high school before they entered the Rays rotation…
Price shot through the minors and the lack of experience may have hindered him in 2009. He struggled at times and had a difficult time working deep into games averaging less than 6 innings per start. Meanwhile, Davis looked much more polished and composed as a starting pitcher, albeit in a small sampled size (6 starts).
The Rays have always said that when a prospect is ready is more than just numbers. They believe that it is also important that the prospect spend enough time in the minors that they learn to handle many different obstacles.
Everybody is excited to see what the Rays next great pitching prospect can do at the big league lever, but we may just have to wait until until 2011.
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Hellickson threw 151 innings in 2008, so I dont think they will use the 2009 number of innings pitched as the benchmark.
I wouldnt be surprised to see Hellickson if a)there is an injury to a starter(and they decide on Hellboy instead of Sonny) or b)as a September call up to work out of the bullpen.
Rays sitting in a good spot with Hellboy…. If any starter gets hurt or blows up like Sonnanstine(2009) ….they have a 5th starter ready to go….NOW!
I think the current starters already know (feel) this….. and I think the fear factor (ie. losing their job) is a real 2010 motivation…..esp. if they go down or don’t perform! All of them will improve off 2009…or starters will be different in 2011!
[...] Starts for Jeremy Hellickson in 2010 with the Rays: 5 Outside of David Price, the Rays are very cautious with their starting pitchers and even with Price we bet the Rays have second thoughts about calling him as soon as they did in 2009. We have made the case before that Hellboy might not be promoted this year…UNDER [...]
[...] this season after pitching only 114 innings last season. And based on his lack of experience, we still believe the Rays would prefer to wait until 2011 for him to make his [...]