Dec 22
For those that follow the minor league system, it always fun to project the Rays lineup 2-3 years down the road. Baseball America does just this with the release of their Top 10 Rays prospects list. And while projecting a lineup 2-3 years into the future is akin to guessing how many times BJ Upton will be picked off first base, BA’s list raises a few eyebrows…
A few thoughts on the lineup projection…
- This is proof of how weak the Rays system is at the catcher position. Does anybody think the Rays are counting on Kelly Shoppach to be the everyday catcher in 2012?
- Carlos Pena is a free agent at the end of the year, but we would not be surprised to see Pena give the Rays a “thanks for saving my career” discount and sign an extension.
- There are very good reasons to believe that 2009 was not a fluke for Jason Bartlett. But he will be two years on the wrong side of 30 in 2012 and it is reasonable to think his offensive and defensive skills will have started to decline. Barty will also be a free agent following the 2011 season and due a large raise.
- Most of us would love to see Carl Crawford play his entire career in a Rays uniform. But it just doesn’t seem realistic. A free agent at the end of the year, CC is more likely to be in a new uniform in 2011, if not sooner.
- Desmond Jennings and BJ Upton is an interesting scenario. Upton might have a slight edge in range which means the Rays would want him in center. But he also has a strong edge in arm, which the Rays would love to have in right field. But should the Rays also consider that Upton has finally found a comfortable position after being bounced around the field like a Pinata?
- Zobrist will be 31 in 2011. And while he is not as good defensively as some metrics suggested in 2009, it is difficult to think that Ben Zobrist will have regressed so much by 2011 that he will be the most-days DH. A more likely scenario would have Reid Brignac take over at shortstop for a departed Jason Bartlett and Zobrist at second base.
- The top 4 starting pitchers seem safe. But we are surprised to see Jeff Niemann over Wade Davis in the rotation. Davis has shown that he can stay healthy and be a workhorse. Meanwhile there are still questions about Niemann’s stamina. Joe Maddon gave Niemann extra rest in 15 of his 30 starts. Opponents’ OPS was over 100 points lower when he was on 5 days rest (.666) as opposed to the normal 4 (.768). We’d say if one was headed to the bullpen, it is more likely to be Niemann.
- Notables left out: Jake McGee (closer?), Tim Beckham (he will either be in the picture by 2012 or he will be a bust), Matt Moore (double-A in 2010 suggests he is on pace to be a factor in 2012)
Dec 22
Alex Torres, Alexander Colome, Desmond Jennings, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Nick Barnese, Reid Brignac, Tim Beckham, Top Prospects, Wade Davis Cork Gaines
Baseball America has released their annual list of the Rays Top 10 prospects. The number in parentheses is that player’s 2009 ranking…
1. Desmond Jennings, of (5)
2. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp (8)
3. Wade Davis, rhp (3)
4. Matt Moore, lhp (6)
5. Reid Brignac, ss (4)
6. Tim Beckham, ss (2)
7. Alexander Colome, lhp (NR)
8. Jake McGee, lhp (9)
9. Alex Torres, lhp (NR)
10. Nick Barnese, rhp (7)
A few notes on the list…
- The top 4 are no surprise. We would not be surprised if both Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson are both in the top 10 of BA’s top 100 prospects list.
- We are a little surprised that Tim Beckham fell all the way to 6, and behind Reid Brignac. The rise of Brignac’s star has slowed considerably, and Beckham held his own in his first full pro season while facing older competition in the South Atlantic League. Of course, Beckham’s status is hurt if he is not a long-term shortstop. And his 43 errors in 117 games does bring that question into play.
- Alexander Colome was voted the top prospect this season in the New York Penn League.
- Jake McGee will be 100% this season for the first time since early 2008. While the Rays are still holding out hope that he will develop into a big league starter, for the first time they are openly talking about a move to the bullpen and possible future closer.
- Alex Torres came to the Rays in the Scott Kazmir deal. He was not ranked in the Angels system a year ago.
- Nick Barnese’s status is hurt by an injury-shortened 2009 season that limited him to 15 starts. As a result, look for the Rays to limit his workload in 2010 to about 120 innings.
Dec 22
Just a few links on Steve Garvey’s and Steve Carlton’s birthday…
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Little surprise here…Mitch Talbot was sent to the Indians to complete the Shoppach deal. Several writers have suggested the Indians ended up with the better player in this deal. But keep in mind that Talbot is out of minor league options, and the Rays had no room on the 25-man roster. [The Heater]
- Stacy Long has released his list of the Rays top 30 prospects. Kepp in mind, unlike most Rays Top Prospects lists, Long has actually seen most of these guys play…And we will forgive Long for his shot at the great state of Iowa. [Biscuit Crumbs]
- Trop Talk projects the Rays 2010 lineup. [Trop Talk]
- Jayson Stark reports that the Rays were one part of a complicated 4-team trade that fell apart during the winter meetings. In the end, the trade was no different than the proposed trade with the Cubs in which the Rays would have received Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell would have gone to the Cubs (scroll down to 5:03pm). [ESPN]
Dec 21
59 days until pitchers and catchers report.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Joe Dillionaire is back! The Rays have re-signed Joe Dillon to a minor league deal. They have also added Ryan Shealy, a first baseman. Shealy has played 164 games with the Rockies and Royals in parts of 4 seasons. His last appearance was in 2008 with the Royals when he hit .301/.354/.603 in 20 games with 7 home runs.
- We can finally stop with the “They will!” and “The won’t!” posts concerning the Rays and Milton Bradley. The Cubs have traded Bradley to the Mariners. [The Heater]
- Marc Topkin says the “Player to be Named Later” in the Kelly Shoppach trade will be named today. Topkin says evidence indicates it could be Mitch Talbot, who is out of minor league options. [The Heater]
- Marc Topkin looks at how some recent moves by other teams will affect the Rays…In the same piece, we learn that Gary Sheffield wants to play 2 more years and (of course) finish his career with the Rays… We could see the Rays making a run at Sheffield if they can find a taker for Burrell. Or they could wait until next year. The problem is, the Rays like players at below market value, but Sheffield is a player a team doesn’t want to underpay. There is always the fear that Sheff will play to his level of pay. That is, if he feels he is underpaid, he will underperform. [St. Pete Times]
- Carl Crawford (91) is the only member of the Rays to make Rob Neyer’s list of the top 100 players of the past 10 years. [ESPN]
- Ken Davidoff thinks the Rays and Johnny Damon would be a “marriage” with “real potential,” if the Rays can unload Pat Burrell. [Newsday]
Dec 19
Tonight is the second annual St. Petersburg Bowl to be played at Tropicana Field. The game will match Rutgers and Central Florida.
And the game is…sold out?
There can be only one explanation for a sold out sporting event at Tropicana Field: There must be a post-game concert featuring Smashmouth.
Dec 19
Two years ago on Rays Index we broke the news of Raymond’s makeover and how he suddenly looked a lot less Wilford Brimleyish.
Raymond’s Makeover Raises Questions Of MPEDs [Rays Index]
Dec 17
Just a couple of links as we need to get back to the kitchen and celebrate National Maple Syrup day. Yummy…
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Forbes lists the Rays as the 26th most valuable franchise in baseball at $320 million. That is a 10% increase over last year. Not a bad return on investment in this economy. Only the Yankees (15%) and Mets (11%) had a higher increase. Of course, 10% of not very much is still not very much. [Forbes]
- The Rays were one of several teams on hand to watch Kelvim Escobar throw yesterday. Reports say that Escobar’s fastball was in the low 90s. He has made only one appearance since 2007. [Twitter]
- Kelvim Escobar listed the Mets and Rays as the two teams that appear to be the most interested and commented on both. [St. Pete Times]
- Here is a primer on where the Rays would pick in the supplemental round depending on which free agents sign with other teams. The Rays already have one supplemental pick (Gregg Zaun) and could get a second if Brian Shouse signs with another team. [Capitol Avenue Club]
- Roger Mooney has all of the Rays minor league coaching staffs which were announced yesterday. [Rays Report]
- Steve Henderson has been hired by the Phillies. [The Heater]
Dec 15
Earlier today we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
- The Rays now have 37 players on the 40-man roster. Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are out of minor league options and we don’t see a spot on the big league roster for either. We expect both players to be removed from the 40-man roster at some point.
- The Rays had 10 players that were arbitration-eligible this off-season. The Rays non-tendered Gabe Gross and avoided arbitration with Grant Balfour, Dioner Navarro, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate. Salaries for the remaining 5 arbitration players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats.
- With the addition of Rafael Soriano and the decision to keep Dioner Navarro (for now) the opening day payroll projects to be $71.1 million. Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for almost one-third of the 2010 payroll.
(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.
Dec 15
Now that the Winter Meetings, the Rule 5 Draft and the non-tender deadline have come and gone, let’s take another look at the 25-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- LINEUP: The key to the lineup is Matt Joyce. Re-signing Gabe Kapler suggests the Rays want him to platoon in right with Joyce. That leaves Ben Zobrist to play second base. If Joyce is not ready, Zobrist could be in right and second base would include Sean Rodriguez by himself or part of a platoon.
- BENCH: Willy Aybar and Gabe Kapler are the locks. Again, assuming Matt Joyce is ready, that will allow Sean Rodriguez to inherit Ben Zobrist’s old role as Mr. Do It All. That leaves the second catcher. The Rays re-signed Dioner Navarro. But Kelly Shoppach hit .191/.313/.340 versus righties while Navi was actually worse at .183/.234/.255. The Rays figure to play 100-110 games versus right-handed starters in 2010 and that is a big hole no matter who is in the lineup. So, do the Rays trade Navi? Until they do, we have to assume he is the backup.
- ROTATION: The Rays are always looking to improve every aspect of the roster and that includes the rotation. If the Rays do find a veteran pitcher this off-season, Wade Davis will be back in Durham for more seasoning. But that seems like a long shot.
- BULLPEN: With the trade for Rafael Soriano and the new contracts for Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, six of the seven spots appear to be spoken for. The Rays will continue to look outside the organization to fill the seventh spot, but for now we give a slight edge to Andy Sonnanstine. Could also go to Dale Thayer, Mitch Talbot or even Winston Abreu who is on a minor league deal. Unless another reliever is added to the mix, this could be the only spot up on the roster up for grabs in spring training.
Dec 14
Akinori Iwamura took out a full-page ad in the Sunday St. Pete Times (click on image to see a larger versions), thanking the Tampa Bay Rays and their fans. Classy move by a classy guy.
In related news, the guy that sold the full-page ad was taken to the hospital after six straight hours of doing the Ed Lover Dance*.
*he may have only been doing the Ed Lover Dance in his head
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- The Rays avoided arbitration with yet another player, this time agreeing to a one-year deal with Grant Balfour for $2.05 million. We had The Mad Australian projected at $2.1 million. [The Heater]
- Durham manager Charlie Montoyo was named the Minor League Manager of the Year by Baseball America. [MiLB]
- Joe Maddon spoke with the Boston Herald about the downfall of using a closer-by-committee. This is the biggest reason most people (including us) feel closers-by-committee can’t work: Pitchers can be warn out from too much warming up during a game. This happens because the manager doesn’t always know how a situation will play out 2-3 batters down the line. [Boston Herald]
- Closer Matt Capps was non-tendered by the Pirates. There has been some rumbling that the Rays would be a good fit. One writer even said the Rays are “very interested.” However, it was unclear if that was insider info or speculation. While the Rays may be interested now that he is a free agent, John Perrotto said they had no interest in Capps during trade talks, saying they were “leery” of his 2009 performance (it sucked). [Inside Pittsburgh Sports]
- Roger Mooney writes that the ability to acquire Rafael Soriano only happened after the market changed by Soriano accepting arbitration from the Braves. [Tampa Tribune]
- Keith Law breaks down the trade for Rafael Soriano (insider subscription needed). [ESPN]
