Archive for December 7th, 2009

Dec 07

Winter Meetings Underway; Rays Rumors Aplenty

Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

[Update] Marc Topkin reports Andrew Friedman is saying nothing is imminent with trades or free agents.

[Update] Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald says that the Rays interest in Matt Lindstrom is “mild at best.”

[Update] The Chicago Sun-Times reports (via Twitter) that the Cubs deny having talked to the Royals about Milton Bradley…And there are the winter meetings in a nutshell. Reports that contradict each other completely.

If you want all the breaking news from the winter meetings, be sure to follow us on Twitter.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at some of the early rumblings regarding the Rays at in Indianapolis…

  • There was an early report that claimed Pat Burrell had been traded to the Cubs and then the Mets…We were told about 5 minutes later that the report was “bogus.”
  • David Lennon then reported that the Mets have no interest in Pat Burrell. It surprised us that a three-way deal was even being mentioned. There was a report two weeks ago that the Mets had no interest in Burrell which makes sense since the outfield at CitiField needs about 3 center fielders.
  • Paul Sullivan reported that Milton Bradley’s agents are now involved in trade negotiations as they are apparently trying to convince other teams that Milt has a good heart.
  • ESPN.com is reporting that the Cubs spoke with the Royals about a Milton Bradley-Gil Meche deal and that the money matches up much better than it does with the Rays.
  • Finally, Tim Brown is reporting that the Rays are one of five teams interested in free agent relief pitcher Kevin Gregg. Which of course would fill the void left by Gregg Zaun for players named Gregg with 3-Gs.
  • We will update this post if any other news breaks today about the Rays.
Dec 07

Conspiracy Theory: Rays Had No Intention Of Signing Top 2 Picks

Kenny Diekroeger, LeVon Washington Cork Gaines 8 Comments »

hangoverLet us play Conspiracy Theorist for a moment…

Back in June the Rays took LeVon Washington in the first round (30th overall) and Kenny Diekroeger in the second round (78th overall). The Rays failed to sign either player. Seemed like a bad draft at the time. But what if the Rays never intended to sign either of their top picks from the 2009 draft? Crazy?

OK, here is where we add two plus two and get the square-root of Andrew Friedman’s IQ.

After the draft Washington’s father told the Gainesville Sun that the Rays “didn’t want to sign” LeVon, noting that the Rays refused to negotiate for more than two months following the draft. He also said that the Rays gave his son a take-it-or-leave-it offer just prior to the deadline for signing 2009 draft picks. An offer the Rays certainly knew would be rejected.

As for Diekroeger, it was well-known prior to the draft that he was expected to honor his commitment to Stanford. Still, the Rays took a chance on Diekroeger. In the end, there is no indication the two sides were ever close to an agreement.

So why would the Rays not make any effort to sign their top pick and use their second pick on a player they knew was unsignable? Because not signing those picks could save the Rays a crap-ton of money in future drafts.

By failing to sign either pick, the Rays receive compensation picks in the 2010 draft in comparable slots. For example, in addition to their 15th pick, the Rays will also have the 31st pick in the first round. Failing to sign Diekroeger also netted the Rays an additional second round pick. Add the compensation picks between the first and second round for the departure of free agents Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse* and all of the sudden the Rays have 6 picks before the third round.

The immediate concern is how much the Rays will have to dish out in signing bonuses for 6 picks in the top 80. That is a lot of cash for a team that counts every nickel.

But what if the Rays have no intention of signing all 6 picks?

The compensation picks for Zaun, Shouse, Washington and Diekroeger are protected. That is, if the Rays fail to sign the players chosen with those picks, they will not receive compensation in 2011.

That leads to what could be the Rays draft strategy for 2010 and beyond:

  1. Target 2-3 players with protected picks that the Rays want to sign and are within the Rays budget. The Rays will have a good idea prior to the draft how much these players will cost.
  2. Target 1-2 players with protected picks that the Rays would like to sign if the price is right. The Rays may not have a strong sense of how much these players will cost.
  3. Use the regular first-round (#15 overall), second-round (approx. #52 overall) on players the Rays have little intention of signing.

The Rays can then use the players they don’t intend to sign as leverage during negotiations with the players they targeted with the compensation picks. The Rays can also use the four players selected with the protected picks as leverage against each other. The Rays have already set the precedent that they are willing to let a player walk if the price is not right. In addition, the Rays can make it clear that they will only spend a specific amount on bonuses. The Rays can then tell the targeted players that if they don’t take that money, the Rays will be happy to give it to one of the other top picks and it will still be considered a strong draft.

For the players the situation changes from one in which they are hoping to negotiate a higher signing bonus to one in which they must choose between an amount the Rays like and nothing at all. In the end, the Rays could lose 1-2 picks that are not protected. But they will be able to sign 2-3 players at reasonable prices and they will get extra picks in the first- and second-rounds next year.

And with at least four picks in the first two round next year they will be able to repeat the entire process. In theory, the Rays could continue this cycle of extra draft picks forever, continually using the extra picks to keep signing bonuses low and with no intention of signing all of the drafted players. And all this for the low, low cost of sacrificing the 2009 draft.

It’s just crazy enough…that it might be true.

*Shouse is not expected to accept arbitration from the Rays and as long as he signs with another team, the Rays will pick up a second compensation pick between the first and second round.

Dec 07

Three Years Ago On Rays Index

The Archives Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Three years ago on Rays Index we wrote about the official end of the once promising Rays career of Josh Hamilton, as he was selected by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft.

Josh Hamilton Selected By Cubs in Rule 5 Draft [Rays Index]

Dec 07

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss A New Place To Discuss, Shouse’s Arb Offer And Of Course, Burrell-For-Bradley

Brian Shouse, Evan Longoria, Matt Lindstrom, Milton Bradley, Nelson Cruz, Pat Burrell Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

hangoverOver the years we have received many requests to make RI more discussion friendly by adding a forum and many more have asked for recommendations on where the best places are to discuss the Rays.

Quite frankly, before now we didn’t think a good discussion forum existed for the Rays. Some were too remote and most included way too much commenter-on-commenter violence and snobby attitudes from those that had been there a while.

That all changes now with the introduction of discussion forums by MLB Trade Rumors.

This will be far and away the best place to discuss the Rays.  There won’t be any shenanigans or tomfoolery and each forum will have its own moderator that will actually moderate as opposed to moderators that claim to enforce some code of conduct but really just rail on those that don’t subscribe their sycophancy.

So head on over and give it a shot. We know you guys will represent the Rays well.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • First of all, we don’t know when this happened, but Roger Mooney has moved from the Bradenton Herald to the Tampa Tribune. Congrats to Mooney and nice pickup by the Trib. Here is Mooney’s take on the Rays and the Winter Meetings. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Marc Topkin reports that Brian Shouse is unlikely to accept arbitration from the Rays. If he does decline and sign elsewhere, the Rays would have six picks before the third round in next year’s draft. [The Heater]
  • We spoke with Will Carroll who told us that he was told last Wednesday that a Milton Bradley deal is “imminent,” but that he had no other details.
  • Meanwhile Jon Heyman says Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell is “not close,” and that sounds believable. Keep in mind, just because there is only one hurdle remaining to get a deal done, it is usually the biggest hurdle and toughest to get past. [Twitter]
  • Marc Topkin explains just how big that final hurdle could be. [St. Pete Times]
  • Marc Topkin says the Rays don’t expect to make any big moves at this week’s winter meetings. [St. Pete Times]
  • Several members of the Rays front office battled the elements last week to build a playground in one day. Afterwards, Stuart Sternberg won the wet t-shirt contest. [MLB]
  • Jon Paul Morosi reports that the Rays are one of several teams that have contacted the Rangers about Nelson Cruz. That sounds nice, until we hear tomorrow what the Rangers would want. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Meanwhile, Joe Frisaro says the Rays are interested in Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom. [Twitter]
  • And Buster Olney says a Matt Lindstrom deal is “imminent.” [Twitter]
  • Ted Keith writes about Evan Longoria’s effort to ramp up his off-season training by enrolling in the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona. [SI.com]
  • He has a new home, but David Chalk is still bringing joy to the masses with his 2009 All-Times Devil Rays advent calendar. [7th Inning Stache]
  • We often refer to a player’s WAR and/or their WAR dollar value. Dave Cameron does an excellent job explaining exactly what that means. [Fangraphs]
  • Mets Today weighs the pros and cons of adding Pat Burrell. [Mets Today]