Dec 02
Earlier today we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in 2010.
- The Rays now have 40 players on the 40-man roster after the recent additions of Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Torres. However, Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are candidates to be traded or designated for assignment as they are out of minor league options and not likely to be on the big league roster unless somebody is injured. Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are both candidates to be non-tendered to traded.
- The Rays have 10 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 8 of those players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats. Last year, we missed the five arbitration cases by a total of $300K and nailed 2 right on the head. Anybody you think we are way off on?
- The opening day payroll projects to be $63.0 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Bartlett). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for about one-third of the 2010 payroll. We are including the $700K used to buy out team options. While not officially part of the payroll, it is certainly a cost that must be factored.
(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.
Dec 02
25-Man Roster Projection and Lineup (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- LINEUP: The questions here are catcher, second base and right field. The catcher position only got more complicated by the addition of Kelly Shoppach. It seems unlikely that the Rays would enter the 2010 season with both Shoppach and Dioner Navarro. Look for Shoppach to start versus lefties and possibly part-time versus righties. With Gabe Kapler being re-signed, he will start versus lefties in right field, which likely pushes Ben Zobrist to to the infield to be the most-days second baseman. That opens the door for Matt Joyce to be the right fielder versus righties.
- BENCH: Willy Aybar and Gabe Kapler are locks. Sean Rodriguez will likely see time at both middle infield spots and the corner outfield positions. The big question is the second catcher. If Dioner Navarro is not brought back, the Rays could bring back Gregg Zaun or somebody similar to be part of a platoon. Or the Rays could go with either John Jaso or Jose Lobaton. Both represent cheaper options and have shown they can hit righties in the minors. But are either ready to start 40-50 games in the big leagues?
- ROTATION: The first four are set with James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price and Jeff Niemann. The final spot will almost certainly go to Wade Davis, unless the Rays pursue a veteran starting pitcher and want Big Dub to get a little more seasoning in triple-A.
- BULLPEN: JP Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler are locks. We think Andy Sonnanstine is in. Lance Cormier may be also, but do the Rays need him and Sonny? Randy Choate will be the lefty-specialist. Jesse Chavez is just a guess right now as the Rays will likely add one or two relievers through free agency or trades.
- WHO’S OUT: In addition to Dioner Navarro, we don’t see a spot for Gabe Gross who is arbitration eligible.
Dec 02
Yesterday, the Rays acquired Kelly Shoppach from Cleveland. The move did nothing to clear up the catching position for 2010. In fact, it just made the situation a bit more complicated.
Assuming Shoppach is one of two catchers on the opening day roster, the question then becomes: Who will be the second? There are several options…
- Dioner Navarro (as part of a platoon) – These are the top two catchers in the organization right now, so this may seem like the obvious choice. However, both hit right-handed pitchers about as well as James Shields hits charging batters. And with about 100 games against righties, that doesn’t seem very productive.
- Dioner Navarro (as backup) – The Rays could give Shoppach 110-120 starts and let Navi get the rest. The upside is the Rays could get lucky with Shoppach posting a strong OBP versus righties. The problem here is that Shoppach would get all the starts versus lefties, leaving Navi to only play against pitchers he doesn’t fare well against. Also, Navi is arbitration-eligible and his salary will be based on being a starter the last two seasons. $2.0-2.5 million is a lot for a backup catcher on a team with a tight budget.
- Gregg Zaun (as part of a platoon) – This may be the ideal situation for the Rays as Zaun hits righties well, is solid defensively and provides leadership. However, with several teams reportedly interested, the Rays may be out of luck if another teams is willing to give Zaun more than 50-60 starts.
- Shawn Riggans (as backup) – This may be the “if all else fails” option. Like Shoppach and Navi, Riggans hits lefties better. With Shoppach on board, Joe Maddon will want to give him his rest versus righties so Riggans is not an ideal backup.
- [Insert catcher here via trade or free agency] (as part of a platoon) – If Zaun signs elsewhere, the Rays will likely set their sights elsewhere. But who? We can speculate, but knowing the Rays it will be somebody that is not on anybody’s radar.
- John Jaso or Jose Lobaton (as part of a mini-platoon) – Let’s say Shoppach gets all 60 starts versus left-handers and half of the starts versus right-handers. That would be about 110-120 starts. That leaves 40-50 starts versus righties. Jaso and Lobaton are both on the 40-man roster. Both have big league experience. Both are cheap. And both hit righties better than lefties (Lobaton: .779 career OPS in the minors vRHP, .629 vLHP; Jaso: .847 vRHP, .760 vLHP). But is either ready to hit big league pitching and is either ready defensively? Jaso threw out only 17% of would-be base stealers in triple-A last season while Lobaton was a little better at 28% in double-A and triple-A combined.
We have to admit, the final option is the one that we are warming up to quickly. Why not trade/non-tender Navarro and let Jaso and Lobaton compete for the backup job in spring training. Best man wins. It would be Andre the Giant versus Hulk Hogan (if Andre the Giant was 6-1 and from Venezuela). The ancillary benefit is that the Rays would save ~$2.0 million that could be better spent in the bullpen, or on a quarterback for the Florida Tuskers.
Dec 02
If you missed it last night because your significant other was making you watch “The Biggest Loser,” the Rays did offer arbitration to Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse, but not Russ Springer. Zaun and Shouse have until December 7 to accept or decline those offers.
The next important dates for the Rays are December 10 and 12.
December 10 is the Rule 5 draft. Aneury Rodriguez is a candidate to be selected off the Rays roster by another team.
December 12 is the deadline to tender contracts to all players with less than six years of service time, including those that are arbitration eligible. Two of these players, Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are candidates to be non-tendered.
So don’t be surprised if the next Rays to be traded are Gross and Navi. The Rays won’t receive much in return (a mid-level prospect?), but it is better than just letting them walk as free agents.
Either way, we have probably seen the last of the Gabe-of-the-Day and The Fat Catcher eras.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- From Marc Topkin: “Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.”…well, that was carefully worded. The right offer comes along and the Rays will start thinking about it real quick. [The Heater]
- In the same piece, Marc Topkin reports that Fernando Perez is “a little behind” in his rehab from shoulder surgery but should be ready for opening day. [The Heater]
- Around the Majors takes an in-depth look at what the Kelly Shoppach trade means for the Rays, Gregg Zaun and Dioner Navarro. [Around the Majors]
- The Hardball Times has a list of several teams that could be interested in Dioner Navarro. [The Hardball Times]
- Would the Mets be interested in Dioner Navarro? [Mets Today]
- We’re not sure we would call Kelly Shoppach a “huge upgrade,” but ok. [Center of the Sports Universe]
- Fangraphs tries to figure out if Jason Bartlett’s 2009 season was a fluke. [Fangraphs]
http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/12/kelly-shoppach-nice-pick-up-for-tampa-bay-rays.html
