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AL MVP: Zobrist About To Become Face In War Between Statheads And Sabermetric Defamation League
Ben Zobrist November 23rd. 2009, 9:19amThe AL MVP award will be announced today, which means Ben Zobrist is about to become the latest and maybe most controversial name in the fight between those that believe stats are the end-all, be-all and those that think Sabermetrics is synonymous with Satan.
According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Zobrist was the most valuable player in the American League this season*.
So what does this mean for Zobrist’s MVP chances and the value of WAR as a Super Statistic?
Zorilla will not win the AL MVP. Only a handful of the most radical statheads have dared make that argument. But Zobrist likely won’t even finish in the top 3 and that might just be too much for te Sabermetric side to handle.
Pro War
WAR is an excellent stat that attempts to place all players on a level playing field regardless of position, league, home ballpark or female hair color preference.
WAR value includes a players contributions at the plate and in the field (for batters) or on the mound (for pitchers) and also takes into account the value of the position a player plays.
It is unbiased. No matter how fair we try to judge, our eyes will always bias even if not at a conscious level.
The likely winner of the AL MVP, Joe Mauer is at a disadvantage in WAR because the stat is unable to accurately assess the defensive value of catchers.
Anti-WAR
Even most WAR believers don’t think Zobrist was the most valuable American Leaguer this year, which essentially admits that the stat is not perfect (it is not). But those that still doubt the value of WAR will see that as proof that WAR is unreliable.
Zobrist was second only to Franklin Gutierrez in the AL in defensive value. Was Zorilla the second most valuable defensive player in the AL this season? We are not even sure Zobrist was te second most valuable defensive player on the Rays. And if Zobrist’s defensive WAR is skewed, then why should anybody accept his total WAR?
WAR is universal, so we should be able to compare players in the AL to players in the NL. Albert Pujols posted a WAR of 8.4 in 2009. Would anybody dare argue that Zobrist was more valuable than Pujols?
*Actually, if we are going to be true to WAR, Zack Greinke was the best player in the AL with a 9.6 WAR. Justin Verlander was the second best pitcher at 8.2 WAR.
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The first question I would have about Zobrist’s WAR rating is how are you deciding who is a replacement? Do you break down his games at every position and then weigh the replacements at his 7 different starting positions accordingly? That seems muddled at best. It also seems skewed to rate his fielding stats if he did not play enough games to qualify at that fielding postion — ten games of error free ball in right field is not better than 150 games in right with ten errors. I think the essential problem with this stat is there is no comperable “replacement” for the guy who is essentially the ultimate “replacement” during a season…
If you are using WAR, I would say pitchers have to be included in their as well.
Good point. When I first started this post I was only looking at players that were considered candidates to win. When I moved past that I should have included pitchers. I made a note in the post.
The stat doesn’t lie. Zobrist IS the best position player in baseball according to WAR. Will he be next year? Would you want him on your fantasy team over Pujols? Irrelevant. For what the WAR stat attempts to measure he is the best. If you don’t like that alter the statistical formula. But, don’t argue about the deservedness of it. Makes you look petty.