Archive for November 30th, 2009

Nov 30

Shouse, Zaun And Springer: To Arb Or Not To Arb

Brian Shouse, Gregg Zaun Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

hangoverToday is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Gregg Zaun, Brian Shouse and Russ Springer are the only Rays to receive either Type A or Type B free agent status (all are type B). If any of the three signs with another team, the Rays can potentially receive a compensation draft pick between the first and second round in the 2010 draft.

In order to receive the draft pick, the Rays must first offer the player arbitration. The risk is that the player could choose to accept the arbitration. The Rays would then be stuck with that player.

BRIAN SHOUSE: It is highly unlikely that the Rays will offer Shouse arbitration. The Rays paid Shouse $1.35 million in 2009 and declined his 2010 option for $1.9 million. While there are no restrictions on what a team can offer a player with 6+ years of experience*, there is the risk that Shouse would win an arbitration hearing. Being forced to keep Shouse in 2010 would be an unwelcome sight considering the Rays already have Randy Choate as a lefty-specialist and presumably no room in their bullpen…No

GREGG ZAUN: Zaun is a little more complicated. On the one hand, the Rays would like Zaun back in 2010 to platoon with Dioner Navarro. So having Zaun accept arbitration would not necessarily be a bad thing. However, the Rays already declined their $2.0 million option on Zaun. If the Rays offer arbitration and Zaun accepts, there is a chance that Zaun could actually make more than $2.0 million. If that happened, the Rays would look foolish. It doesn’t seem unreasonable that Zaun would ask for $2.5 million in arbitration. While we would not be surprised if the Rays offered Zaun arbitration, our guess is that they won’t…No

RUSS SPRINGER: At 41 years of age, offering arbitration would be a nice incentive for Springer to not retire…No

So that is a “NO” on all three. Can you make a case for offering arbitration to one or more of the players in the hopes of receiving an extra draft pick(s) in next year’s draft? Let us know in the comments.

* Players with less than 6 years of experience cannot have their salary reduced by more than 20% in arbitration.

Nov 30

Ranking The AL Closers; JP Howell Second Worst

Brian Fuentes, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria, JP Howell, Mo Rivera Cork Gaines 8 Comments »

Last year, Joe Posnanski generated a new statistic to evaluate closers (CLOSER+) based on Bill James’ method of classifying saves. James breaks down save opportunities into three categories:

1. Easy Save. This is a save when the first batter faced is not the tying or go-ahead run.
2. Tough save: This is a save when the tying or go ahead run is already on base when you take over.
3. Regular save: Everything else. [Typically, a "regular" save is when a pitcher starts the 9th inning with a 1-run lead.]

CLOSER+ compares a pitcher’s save total to how many saves an average closer would have converted given the same number and type of save chances. 100 is average. A number greater than 100 means the pitcher did better than an average closer would have fared.

While Posnanski compared closers to all relievers, we decided to do things a little different this year. We looked at just American League closers (any pitcher with at least 10 saves), and evaluated JP Howell based on how the average AL closer fared in each category (full rankings are below).

Notes on the above table…

  • AL closers converted 93.3% of Easy saves. Based on Howell’s 12 Easy save opportunities, the average AL closer would have converted 11.2 saves. So Howell was average on Easy saves. The same can be said for “Regular” saves. Howell converted 6 while an average AL closer would have converted 6.6.
  • Howell struggled converting saves in which the tying or go-ahead runner was already on base when he entered the game. In those situations, he was 0-5. On average, AL closers converted about half of the Tough chances.
  • In his 25 save opportunities, Howell converted 17 saves. That translates to a CLOSER+ of 83 as an average AL closer would have been expected to convert 20.5 out of 25 based on the number and type of save opportunities.. So Howell was well below average in the AL.

Now let’s look at where Howell ranks among the 16 AL closers that registered at least 10 saves…

Notes on the above table…

  • Howell ranked 15th out of 16 AL closers, finishing ahead of only Jim Johnson who became the Orioles closer after George Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Howell was hurt most by his 0-5 showing in Tough saves. For comparison, Troy Percival had a CLOSER+ of 103 in 2008*. The advantage Percival had was that Joe Maddon never used Percy in a Tough save situation.
  • Tough saves are rare these days. Only 4 closers in the AL converted more than 1 save this season in which the pitcher entered the game with the tying run already on base. Only 6 attempted more than 2.
  • Mariano Rivera tops the list with a 111 CLOSER+. His 4-4 showing in Tough save situations shows how dominant he can be in the most crucial situations. Every other closer with at least 2 Tough save opportunities blew at least one of those chances.
  • Brian Fuentes, who led the AL in saves (48) was only the 10th best closer in the AL.
  • Andrew Bailey, who won the AL Rookie of the Year award, was the 9th best closer in the AL.
  • How much would you give up to have Joakim Soria on the Rays?

Howell’s numbers were hurt in part  by spending part of the season in middle relief. One of the Tough saves that Howell blew came in the 7th inning. In those situations, Howell was not being asked to close the game. While a Blown Save is possible, a Save is not. If we remove that one blown save, Howell’s CLOSER+ is a little better (85), but not much.

It is no secret that one of the Rays’ biggest priorities this off-season is renovating the bullpen. What is unknown is how the Rays will handle the closer’s role in 2010. Will they stick with Howell, develop a closer from within (Jake McGee?) or will they decide to bring in a closer via trade or free agency?

If the Rays hope to return to the playoffs in 2010, they will need more consistency from the bullpen when the game is on the line. And they will need a closer that performs better than next-to-last in the AL.

*The 2008 data uses conversion rates for closers in the AL and NL.

Nov 30

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss McGee’s Fastball, Hellboy’s Changeup And Crawford’s Clubhouse Presence

Desmond Jennings, Gregg Zaun, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson Cork Gaines 14 Comments »

hangoverBefore the Webtopia, Joe Smith gives us several great tidbits in his latest column…

  • On Jake McGee: “McGee feels he’s back to 100 percent. He said he’s throwing 95 mph, and his changeup is better than ever.”
  • Andrew Friedman adds that the Rays “haven’t given up on McGee as a starter,” but does admit that moving to the bullpen is a possibility.
  • Mitch Lukevics says both Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson need more seasoning but that Hellboy is further along than the Rays expected, noting that his changeup has “become a factor.”
  • The Rays are having ongoing discussions with Gregg Zaun, but several other teams have expressed interest.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on Carl Crawford: “Crawford is a big clubhouse presence, a player everyone looks up to. There may come a time when Rays ownership bites the bullet and says this is one player they need to keep and works out a long-term commitment.” [Boston Globe]
  • The Rays radio duo will return intact next season. [The Heater]
  • Around the Majors takes a look at the Rays off-season in the first of a two-part series. [Around the Majors]
  • Around the Majors explores the possibility of trading Jason Bartlett. [Around the Majors]
  • Not sure why security would let a fan bring a device composed of a bunch of random wires into the Trop, but OK. [Instructables]
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/article1055060.ece