Archive for November, 2009

Nov 30

Shouse, Zaun And Springer: To Arb Or Not To Arb

Brian Shouse, Gregg Zaun Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

hangoverToday is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Gregg Zaun, Brian Shouse and Russ Springer are the only Rays to receive either Type A or Type B free agent status (all are type B). If any of the three signs with another team, the Rays can potentially receive a compensation draft pick between the first and second round in the 2010 draft.

In order to receive the draft pick, the Rays must first offer the player arbitration. The risk is that the player could choose to accept the arbitration. The Rays would then be stuck with that player.

BRIAN SHOUSE: It is highly unlikely that the Rays will offer Shouse arbitration. The Rays paid Shouse $1.35 million in 2009 and declined his 2010 option for $1.9 million. While there are no restrictions on what a team can offer a player with 6+ years of experience*, there is the risk that Shouse would win an arbitration hearing. Being forced to keep Shouse in 2010 would be an unwelcome sight considering the Rays already have Randy Choate as a lefty-specialist and presumably no room in their bullpen…No

GREGG ZAUN: Zaun is a little more complicated. On the one hand, the Rays would like Zaun back in 2010 to platoon with Dioner Navarro. So having Zaun accept arbitration would not necessarily be a bad thing. However, the Rays already declined their $2.0 million option on Zaun. If the Rays offer arbitration and Zaun accepts, there is a chance that Zaun could actually make more than $2.0 million. If that happened, the Rays would look foolish. It doesn’t seem unreasonable that Zaun would ask for $2.5 million in arbitration. While we would not be surprised if the Rays offered Zaun arbitration, our guess is that they won’t…No

RUSS SPRINGER: At 41 years of age, offering arbitration would be a nice incentive for Springer to not retire…No

So that is a “NO” on all three. Can you make a case for offering arbitration to one or more of the players in the hopes of receiving an extra draft pick(s) in next year’s draft? Let us know in the comments.

* Players with less than 6 years of experience cannot have their salary reduced by more than 20% in arbitration.

Nov 30

Ranking The AL Closers; JP Howell Second Worst

Brian Fuentes, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria, JP Howell, Mo Rivera Cork Gaines 8 Comments »

Last year, Joe Posnanski generated a new statistic to evaluate closers (CLOSER+) based on Bill James’ method of classifying saves. James breaks down save opportunities into three categories:

1. Easy Save. This is a save when the first batter faced is not the tying or go-ahead run.
2. Tough save: This is a save when the tying or go ahead run is already on base when you take over.
3. Regular save: Everything else. [Typically, a "regular" save is when a pitcher starts the 9th inning with a 1-run lead.]

CLOSER+ compares a pitcher’s save total to how many saves an average closer would have converted given the same number and type of save chances. 100 is average. A number greater than 100 means the pitcher did better than an average closer would have fared.

While Posnanski compared closers to all relievers, we decided to do things a little different this year. We looked at just American League closers (any pitcher with at least 10 saves), and evaluated JP Howell based on how the average AL closer fared in each category (full rankings are below).

Notes on the above table…

  • AL closers converted 93.3% of Easy saves. Based on Howell’s 12 Easy save opportunities, the average AL closer would have converted 11.2 saves. So Howell was average on Easy saves. The same can be said for “Regular” saves. Howell converted 6 while an average AL closer would have converted 6.6.
  • Howell struggled converting saves in which the tying or go-ahead runner was already on base when he entered the game. In those situations, he was 0-5. On average, AL closers converted about half of the Tough chances.
  • In his 25 save opportunities, Howell converted 17 saves. That translates to a CLOSER+ of 83 as an average AL closer would have been expected to convert 20.5 out of 25 based on the number and type of save opportunities.. So Howell was well below average in the AL.

Now let’s look at where Howell ranks among the 16 AL closers that registered at least 10 saves…

Notes on the above table…

  • Howell ranked 15th out of 16 AL closers, finishing ahead of only Jim Johnson who became the Orioles closer after George Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Howell was hurt most by his 0-5 showing in Tough saves. For comparison, Troy Percival had a CLOSER+ of 103 in 2008*. The advantage Percival had was that Joe Maddon never used Percy in a Tough save situation.
  • Tough saves are rare these days. Only 4 closers in the AL converted more than 1 save this season in which the pitcher entered the game with the tying run already on base. Only 6 attempted more than 2.
  • Mariano Rivera tops the list with a 111 CLOSER+. His 4-4 showing in Tough save situations shows how dominant he can be in the most crucial situations. Every other closer with at least 2 Tough save opportunities blew at least one of those chances.
  • Brian Fuentes, who led the AL in saves (48) was only the 10th best closer in the AL.
  • Andrew Bailey, who won the AL Rookie of the Year award, was the 9th best closer in the AL.
  • How much would you give up to have Joakim Soria on the Rays?

Howell’s numbers were hurt in part  by spending part of the season in middle relief. One of the Tough saves that Howell blew came in the 7th inning. In those situations, Howell was not being asked to close the game. While a Blown Save is possible, a Save is not. If we remove that one blown save, Howell’s CLOSER+ is a little better (85), but not much.

It is no secret that one of the Rays’ biggest priorities this off-season is renovating the bullpen. What is unknown is how the Rays will handle the closer’s role in 2010. Will they stick with Howell, develop a closer from within (Jake McGee?) or will they decide to bring in a closer via trade or free agency?

If the Rays hope to return to the playoffs in 2010, they will need more consistency from the bullpen when the game is on the line. And they will need a closer that performs better than next-to-last in the AL.

*The 2008 data uses conversion rates for closers in the AL and NL.

Nov 30

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss McGee’s Fastball, Hellboy’s Changeup And Crawford’s Clubhouse Presence

Desmond Jennings, Gregg Zaun, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson Cork Gaines 14 Comments »

hangoverBefore the Webtopia, Joe Smith gives us several great tidbits in his latest column…

  • On Jake McGee: “McGee feels he’s back to 100 percent. He said he’s throwing 95 mph, and his changeup is better than ever.”
  • Andrew Friedman adds that the Rays “haven’t given up on McGee as a starter,” but does admit that moving to the bullpen is a possibility.
  • Mitch Lukevics says both Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson need more seasoning but that Hellboy is further along than the Rays expected, noting that his changeup has “become a factor.”
  • The Rays are having ongoing discussions with Gregg Zaun, but several other teams have expressed interest.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on Carl Crawford: “Crawford is a big clubhouse presence, a player everyone looks up to. There may come a time when Rays ownership bites the bullet and says this is one player they need to keep and works out a long-term commitment.” [Boston Globe]
  • The Rays radio duo will return intact next season. [The Heater]
  • Around the Majors takes a look at the Rays off-season in the first of a two-part series. [Around the Majors]
  • Around the Majors explores the possibility of trading Jason Bartlett. [Around the Majors]
  • Not sure why security would let a fan bring a device composed of a bunch of random wires into the Trop, but OK. [Instructables]
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/article1055060.ece
Nov 28

Two Years Ago On Rays Index

The Archives Cork Gaines 4 Comments »

Two years ago on Rays Index we wrote about the biggest trade of the young Andrew Friedman-era, in which Delmon Young was sent to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.

Rays Trade Delmon Young And Two Others To The Twins For Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett And A Minor Leaguer [Rays Index]

Nov 27

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss The Rays Infatuation With Sidearmers, The Price For Brignac And Talbot’s Off-Season

Joe Bateman, Jon Weber, Mitch Talbot, Reid Brignac, RJ Swindle Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

hangoverJust a few links to wet your tastebuds on this day after Turkey Day.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • The Rays continue their infatuation with side-arming relief pitchers by signing Joe Bateman and RJ Swindle to minor league deals.
  • The Blue Jays are interested in trading for Reid Brignac, but feel the Rays are asking for too much. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Jon Weber has signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. [Watching Durham Bulls Baseball]
  • Bill Chastain writes about the different ways the Rays give back to the community. [MLB]
  • Jeff Niemann was not named as part of the Topps MLB Rookie All-Star team. The roster includes just one right-handed pitcher with that spot going to Tommy Hanson of Atlanta. Niemann was 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA while Hanson was 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. Niemann had a better WAR (3.2 vs 2.6) but Hanson had the better FIP (3.50 vs 4.07). Doesn’t seem like a huge oversight. [The Heater]
  • Baseball Digest takes a look at the Rays off-season plans. [Baseball Digest]
  • Bill Chastain writes about the work Mitch Talbot is getting in the Arizona Fall League. Mitch Lukevics says it is an opportunity to get Talbot some more innings since he only made 11 starts this season due to injury. Of course, Talbot will be out of minor league options in 2010, so the Rays may either be hoping Talbot can fill a bullpen role or they are showing other teams that Talbot is healthy should the Rays attempt to trade him. [MLB]
Nov 25

The Crapification Of Evan Longoria Has Begun

Evan Longoria Cork Gaines 20 Comments »

hangoverTwo huge and seemingly unrelated pieces of Evan Longoria news broke yesterday…

  1. First, it was revealed that Longo will indeed grace the cover of “MLB2K10″ (notice that the fake cover is not included in the release).
  2. And on the same day, it was verified that Longoria is officially on Twitter (@Evan3Longoria).

Coincidence? Hardly.

A closer look at the “official Twitter account of Evan Longoria, AL Gold Glove and Silver Slugger at 3B for the Tampa Bay Rays,” suggests that while Longoria may have approved of the account, it is doubtful that he is the voice behind the account.

The first account to follow Longoria on Twitter belongs to “Ronnie2K,” a publicist at 2K Sports. The second account to follow Longoria on Twitter was “2K Sports.”

See the pattern?

So if you follow @Evan3Longoria on Twitter, you are in all likelihood NOT following Evan Longoria. You are more likely following “Ronnie2K” as he pretends to be Evan Longoria all while promoting the release of “MLB2K10″ and trying to get you to spend money on a product that will be vastly inferior to “MLB 10 The Show.”

Unless of course you think Dirtbag would actually refer to himself as a “Silver Slugger at 3B” or post THIS PICTURE.

He wasn’t my Longoria. He wasn’t your Longoria. But he used to be “Our Longoria.” And unfortunately he is now “Corporate Longoria.” Because while “Our Longoria” wanted nothing to do with social networks, “Corporate Longoria” is not above pretending to open up to his fans on social networks.

Nov 25

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Burrell For Bradley, Crawford’s Extension And Edwin Jackson

Carl Crawford, Edwin Jackson, Mark Fernandez, Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell Cork Gaines 5 Comments »

hangoverJust a few links this morning to clear out the inbox.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • We have heard these exact sentiments previously, but Buster Olney is reporting that the Rays will only trade Pat Burrell to the Cubs for Milton Bradley if the deal is on their terms. In other words, there is no negotiation. Take it, or leave it. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Tampa Bay Rays Fan did a point/counter-point with Dock of the Rays on the merits of trading for Milton Bradley. [Tampa Bay Rays Fan]
  • Jorge Says No! looks at what it might take to sign Carl Crawford to an extension and suggests 3-years/$45 million with a raise to $13 million in 2010 and growing to $18 million in 2012. The post doesn’t think the Rays would be willing to go that high…We think the numbers are about right but we are not sure Crawford will want a deal so short. [Jorge Says No!]
  • Strange. A writer for NESN.com (The Red Sox TV network) wrote a piece based on last week’s blog post at a New York website that claimed the Rays backed out of a handshake agreement with Carl Crawford to not pick up his option and that Crawford was “livid.” Most people with a clue picked up on the errors in the report and lack of fact-checking and now assume that the “source” for the piece was fictional. And yet, NESN.com just assumed it was true. [NESN.com]
  • MLB.com is running a series of “Organizational Reviews” and the Rays are up. Did you hear? The Rays have depth of pitching talent. Imagine what Lisa Winston would have written before the Rays traded Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and Scott Kazmir. [MLB]
  • For those that are still pissed the Rays traded Edwin Jackson: The Tigers are so determined to trade Jackson that “it’s like they want to give him away.” [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • This is a fantasy baseball evaluation but still interesting topic: Jacoby Ellsbury or Carl Crawford? [Fantasy Baseball 365]
  • Mark Fernandez, a senior VP with the Rays, returned to his elementary school to speak about his work in Major League Baseball. [Tampa Tribune]
Nov 23

Ben Zobrist 8th Most Valuable American Leaguer

Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

Joe Mauer has been named the 2009 American League MVP. Ben Zobrist 8th place finish, was the highest ever for the Rays. Zobrist’s highest vote was a sixth-place vote. Evan Longoria finished 19th.

Carlos Pena had the highest finish ever by the Rays in the AL MVP voting with 9th place finishes in 2007 and 2008. He also received the highest votes with two third place votes in 2007 and one third place vote in 2008.

This was the first second year in which more than one Ray received MVP votes. Aubrey Huff finished 24th (1-9th, 1-10th place vote) in 2003. Carl Crawford finished 26th (1-9th place vote) in 2006 and Jorge Cantu finished 27th (1-10th place vote) in 2005, the only other Rays to receive MVP consideration. In other words, Zobrist is just the second Tampa Bay Ray to receive MVP consideration from a voter other than somebody that covers the Rays (each market gets two votes).

Nov 23

AL MVP: Zobrist About To Become Face In War Between Statheads And Sabermetric Defamation League

Ben Zobrist Cork Gaines 4 Comments »

The AL MVP award will be announced today, which means Ben Zobrist is about to become the latest and maybe most controversial name in the fight between those that believe stats are the end-all, be-all and those that think Sabermetrics is synonymous with Satan.

According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Zobrist was the most valuable player in the American League this season*.

So what does this mean for Zobrist’s MVP chances and the value of WAR as a Super Statistic?

Zorilla will not win the AL MVP. Only a handful of the most radical statheads have dared make that argument. But Zobrist likely won’t even finish in the top 3 and that might just be too much for te Sabermetric side to handle.

Pro War
WAR is an excellent stat that attempts to place all players on a level playing field regardless of position, league, home ballpark or female hair color preference.
WAR value includes a players contributions at the plate and in the field (for batters) or on the mound (for pitchers) and also takes into account the value of the position a player plays.
It is unbiased. No matter how fair we try to judge, our eyes will always bias even if not at a conscious level.
The likely winner of the AL MVP, Joe Mauer is at a disadvantage in WAR because the stat is unable to accurately assess the defensive value of catchers.

Anti-WAR
Even most WAR believers don’t think Zobrist was the most valuable American Leaguer this year, which essentially admits that the stat is not perfect (it is not). But those that still doubt the value of WAR will see that as proof that WAR is unreliable.
Zobrist was second only to Franklin Gutierrez in the AL in defensive value. Was Zorilla the second most valuable defensive player in the AL this season? We are not even sure Zobrist was te second most valuable defensive player on the Rays. And if Zobrist’s defensive WAR is skewed, then why should anybody accept his total WAR?
WAR is universal, so we should be able to compare players in the AL to players in the NL. Albert Pujols posted a WAR of 8.4 in 2009. Would anybody dare argue that Zobrist was more valuable than Pujols?

*Actually, if we are going to be true to WAR, Zack Greinke was the best player in the AL with a 9.6 WAR. Justin Verlander was the second best pitcher at 8.2 WAR.

Nov 23

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss The Hot Stove, Crawford’s Future And Sheff’s Annual Flirtation With Rays

BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Gary Sheffield Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

hangoverLet’s start today with several Hot Stove goodies from Joe Smith…

  • Andrew Friedman is looking at right-handed and left-handed relievers and has a target list of free agents and trade targets depending on how the market plays out.
  • Smith lists lefties Joe Beimel, Will Ohman and Darren Oliver and righties Kevin Gregg, J.J. Putz and John Smoltz as possibilities.
  • Smith says if the Rays want a starting catcher, they may have to acquire one via trade.
  • The Rangers and White Sox have called the Rays about the availability of BJ Upton.
  • The Mets and Braves have inquired about the availability of Carl Crawford.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Ken Rosenthal and John Paul Morosi of Fox Sports utters what we have openly worried about around here for a while. That the Yankees want to re-sign Johnny Damon with an eye towards Carl Crawford replacing him in 2011. Rosenthal and Morosi also name other teams that will likely be in the bidding should CC become a free agent after next season, including the White Sox, Angels and Astros. [Fox Sports]
  • The ABC group that was put together to help recommend a new home for the Rays may present their findings to Hillsborough County officials. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Guess who wants to play in 2010 and lists his hometown Rays as an option? In what is becoming an annual tradition, it is Gary Sheffield! Maybe Sheff is willing to eat the remainder of Pat Burrell’s contract. [MLB Trade Rumors]
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