Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Marcel, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulated the 2009 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.
Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 86-76, showing that the Rays played 2 games under what would be predicted based on their run differential. By comparison, the Red Sox played 2 games above their Pythagorean record and the Yankees were 8 games better than theirs.
For the second year in a row, CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays regular season record, missing by just 4 wins. At the other end of the spectrum, Hardball Times and PECOTA each missed the Rays total wins by 8 games.
All of the projections were spot-on when it came to projecting the number of runs the Rays would score, the pitching staff was not nearly as strong as expected, with 5 of the 6 projections missing by more than 50 runs allowed.
Of course, nobody was as far off with their projections as this guy.
The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]