Archive for October 12th, 2009

Oct 12

Rays TV Ratings Had As Good A Season As Pat Burrell

Attendance, TV Ratings The Professor 14 Comments »

Last week we took a look at the final attendance figures for the Rays and how they showed only a 4% increase over 2008 despite hope for a big World Series bump at the gate.

One of the excuses for the poor showing at the ticket office is the economy and that any increase was impressive with ticket sales down for many teams. Well, if that is the case, certainly the people not going to the games were watching at home.

Not so much. The Biz of Baseball shows that TV ratings were down for baseball and breaks down the ratings for each ball club. And while attendance was up for the Rays, their TV audience was down.

Fox Sports Florida ended up with a 3.13 rating which is down 9.8% from last year. The 57,00 households is down 8.1%. The ratings were a little better for SUN Sports (3.54 and 65,000 households). This was the first year Rays games were broadcast on SUN, so no comparable data from 2008 was available.

If we average the Households for each network (61,000), the Rays ranked 20th in Major League Baseball, which is better than their 23rd place showing in attendance. Of course the 10 below the Rays are a who’s who of craptastic baseball (OAK, MIL, CLE, FL, WAS, BAL, SD, PIT, CIN, KC).

What does this mean for the Rays? Certainly last year’s numbers were boosted by the September pennant race. But to see an actual decrease in ratings must be disappointing for the Rays who had to be hoping that the TV audience would continue to grow. We are not sure how much revenue the Rays bring in from their TV deals, but these numbers will certainly cost the Rays money next time they negotiate and brings into question whether a Rays (Sunburst?) TV Network could ever be a viable option.

MLB Sees National TV Ratings Down for 2009 Regular Season [The Biz of Baseball]

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Oct 12

Rays Place Pitching Staff In Position To Succeed In 2010

David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Matt Garza, Wade Davis The Professor 5 Comments »

The Rays missed the playoffs this season, in part because the pitching staff did not show the same consistency and dominance exhibited in 2008. Of course, with the length of the 2008 season and the short off-season, this was not unexpected.

But while many would consider this season a disappointment, the Rays never look at one season in a vacuum. At the same time the team was contending for the playoffs, the front office was already building for 2010 and beyond. Part of this plan included a plan for each pitcher in an effort to maximize their effectiveness for this season and the seasons to come.

Let’s take a look at the workload of each of the starting pitchers and a few of the key relief pitchers and how that might affect them moving forward.

A few notes on the table…

  • The two returning starting pitchers, James Shields and Matt Garza showed a decrease in innings pitched this season due to the lack of postseason starts. However, both pitchers threw more regular season pitches. Garza went from 2,947 pitches in 2008 to 3,427 pitches this year while Shields went from 3,131 to 3,328. the 480 pitch increase for Garza is why his Stress* level showed an increase despite the fewer innings pitched. Shields also showed a small increase in Stress. Garza’s stress is due to the large number of starts in which he threw at least 110 pitches, a mark Shields rarely breaks.
  • The three rookies, David Price, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis increased their innings pitched ~20-25%. The Rays have stated in the past that as they build up the strength in the young arms, they want each pitcher to increase their workload ~20% each season, and that is exactly what each pitcher did this year. A 20% increase again next season will put each pitcher near the target of 200-220 innings pitched (Price 195; Niemann 213; Davis 234).
  • When we looked at the toll of the long 2008 season last off-season, we underestimated the affect on the relief pitchers. But looking at how much the Rays scaled back JP Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler, it is clear that each was burned out in 2009.

Garza’s large number of pitches and increased Stress in 2009 is a little worrisome, however, both he and Shields seem to be right where they need to be. That is, 200-220 inning pitchers, year in and year out. Meanwhile, the white glove treatment given to the rookies leaves them ready to make the jump in 2010 to 200-inning workhorses.

Looking at the table, it now seems that the Rays have been building this pitching staff with their eye on 2010. In fact, the Rays recently stated that one of their goals for 2010 was 1,000 innings pitched from their starting pitchers. While the young arms were held back to an extend in 2008, each starting pitcher will be free to throw 200+ innings next season and it will be exciting to see what they can do.

*Stress is a statistic based on the number of pitches a pitchers throws after reaching 100 pitches in a start. The Stress increases to the third power for every pitch over 100. For example, if a pitcher throws 95 pitches, he would have zero stress for that start. If a pitcher throws 110 pitches, his stress is 10^3 divided by the total number of pitches.

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Oct 12

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Bringing Back Navi, Prospects Making The Jump And Kevin Kennedy’s Crystal Ball

BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, Dioner Navarro, Jake McGee, Matt Joyce, Pat Burrell The Professor 3 Comments »

Let’s start this with a Topkintopia before we get to the regular Webtopia. Several good tidbits in Marc Topkin’s latest piece…

  • Both Pat Burrell and BJ Upton will likely be back in 2010 unless somebody makes an offer the Rays can’t refuse. In the case of Burrell, that means somebody taking his entire $9 million salary.
  • Dioner Navarro is a big question mark and the Rays could non-tender him (essentially release him rather than offer arbitration). However, quotes from the team leaves Topkin feeling that they may prefer to bring him back next year.
  • Topkin says there has been “little recent talk” between the Cubs and Rays and calls the chances of a Pat Burrell-for-Milton Bradley deal “slim.”
  • The Rays have a short-list of candidates for hitting coach but will likely wait until after the postseason and for vacant managerial positions to be filled before making a hire.
  • Topkin calls Jake McGee a candidate to eventually be converted to a closer.
  • Andrew Friedman said it is “very unrealistic” to expect Desmond Jennings to make the big league club in Spring Training next year, pointing out that he is still relatively inexperienced due to a history of injuries.
  • On the other hand, Andrew Friedman wants Matt Joyce to come into Spring Training with the mind-set to “win a job.”

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Where I Stand tracked 66 baseball “experts” and their 2009 preseason predictions. Who finished first? Kevin Kennedy. Yep, that Kevin Kennedy. Apparently their is no truth to the rumor that he made his picks last week after watching a replay of the season. [Where I Stand]
  • Huh? How can a Detroit Free-Press writer make Carl Crawford a key piece of a story and potential acquisition of the Tigers and not know that the Rays have a club option on Crawford for 2010? Crawford has no say in whether the option is exercised (it will be). [Detroit Free-Press]
  • Rays Prospects have the details of a celebration to honor the Durham Bulls triple-A championship. [Rays Prospects]
  • Does Jeff Niemann have a shot at the Rookie of the Year award? One blogger thinks so. [Club Seat]
  • Dock of the Rays recounts a Devil Rays game they attended in 2003. Good read. [Dock of the Rays]
  • Rise of the Rays wonders if the Rays should bring back Cliff Floyd. [Rise of the Rays]
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