Archive for October 9th, 2009

Olney’s Sources On Burrell-Bradley Swap: Very Much A Long Shot

Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell 9 Comments »

Yesterday, Chris DeLuca of the Chicago Sun-Times reported that the Cubs are targeting the Rays as a trade partner in an effort to move Milton Bradley. DeLuca suggested the Cubs could take back Pat Burrell in the deal.

Today, Buster Olney’s sources say that a Bradley-Burrell deal is very unlikely citing our biggest question mark yesterday: Why would the Cubs want Burrell and Alfonso Soriano in the same outfield.

The Rays are talking with the Cubs about Milton Bradley, as reported in the Chicago Sun-Times on Thursday, but at this point, sources say, it’s very much a long shot that this deal gets worked out…If Burrell was, in fact, in this conversation — and to this point, it’s all speculation — then it would raise this question: What would the Cubs do with him? They certainly couldn’t play both him and Alfonso Soriano in the same outfield at the same time.

From a Rays perspective, this deal might be a good idea. But there are two teams involved and even if the Cubs are desperate to move Bradley, they still have to consider their 2010 roster. And right now, Burrell just does not look like a good fit.

Opening up the mailbag [ESPN]

The 2009 Preseason Mathematical Projections: A Look Back

Playoffs? 1 Comment »

Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Marcel, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulated the 2009 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.

Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 86-76, showing that the Rays played 2 games under what would be predicted based on their run differential. By comparison, the Red Sox played 2 games above their Pythagorean record and the Yankees were 8 games better than theirs.

For the second year in a row, CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays regular season record, missing by just 4 wins. At the other end of the spectrum, Hardball Times and PECOTA each missed the Rays total wins by 8 games.

All of the projections were spot-on when it came to projecting the number of runs the Rays would score, the pitching staff was not nearly as strong as expected, with 5 of the 6 projections missing by more than 50 runs allowed.

Of course, nobody was as far off with their projections as this guy.

The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Pat Burrell For Milton Bradley

Jason Bartlett, Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell, Wade Davis 2 Comments »

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA

  • In case you missed our take on a potential Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell deal, you can find it at this link. [RayIndex]
  • Rob Neyer says we will be able to tell which MVP-voters have been paying attention by who has Ben Zobrist in the top-5 of their ballot. Neyer argues that Zorilla was not more valuable than Mauer, but he certainly belongs near the top of the list. [ESPN]
  • The Rays Party noticed that Jim Hickey added a two-seam fastball to Wade Davis’ arsenal, a pitch he used a lot in his last 2 starts. [The Rays Party]
  • Dock of the Rays makes a case that trading Jason Bartlett is not as crazy as it sounds. [Dock of the Rays]
  • The Rays Party is not thrilled with the idea of the Cubs dumping a player on the Rays because of personality issues. [The Rays Party]
  • Trop Talk would prefer that the Rays pass on Milton Bradley. [Trop Talk]
  • Dock of the Rays explains why the Rays are so eager to rid themselves of Pat Burrell. [Dock of the Rays]