Sep 11
Up until first pitch, use the comments section to predict who you think will be the Sunburst Player of the Game. (be sure to use a valid email address while leaving the comment). The commenter that correctly predicts who we will name the Sunburst Player of the Game the most times prior to the all-star game, will win two tickets to a second-half game. Runners-up get their choice of a t-shirt. [Click HERE for rules]
Check Marc Topkin’s blog for the starting lineups.
Sep 11
You don’t need stats to know that the Rays bullpen has been downright hideous recently. And yet, the relief corps, a group many felt were the MVPs of the 2008 AL Champions, still have the 5th best ERA in the AL (3.94). So is this just one of those fluky stretches where it just so happens everybody has gone sour at the same time? In other words, has the bullpen just been unlucky recently, or is there something deeper to all this madness?
In 2007, the Rays bullpen, arguably one of the worst of the last 60 years, allowed an astonishing 41.8% (114 of 273) inherited baserunners to score, worst in the majors that season. In 2008, the revamped bullpen improved to third in MLB at 25.2%. This year, that number is back up to 32.4%, 17th in the big leagues. In other words, when Joe Maddon goes to the bullpen with runners on base, the Rays are just slightly better than the AL average (34.6%*) at keeping those runners from scoring.
Let’s break it down further and take a look at the biggest culprits. The following is every relief pitcher that has faced at least 10 inherited runners this season. Notes on these numbers follow the table…
Notes on the table…
- Just like ERA for a relief pitcher can be flawed, so can just looking at inherited runners. Like all stats, they are best at deciphering and interpreting trends. When looking at individuals, one must keep each stat in context as each player represents a unique situation. Take Randy Choate and Brian Shouse. They have the Rays best rates at stranding runners. However, both pitchers are specialists and often come in to a game to face just a single batter. That minimizes the chances of an inherited runner scoring. For example, if Shouse comes in to face a lefty with a runner on 2nd and no outs, there is less of a chance of that runner scoring while Shouse is in the game, than if JP Howell came in to face the same batter. Howell is more likely to face several batters giving the runner several chances to score.
- Despite a season that paled in comparison to 2008, you can see Maddon leans most heavily on Grant Balfour in the most important situations and The Mad Australian is still stranding runners at a better than league average rate.
- Lance Cormier and Chad Bradford, two pitchers JoeMa uses a lot in crucial situations, have been horrible. Both pitchers have exceeded the rate Shawn Camp displayed in 2007 when he allowed 40.7% (22 of 54) of the runners to score. And we thought Camp was the worst we ever saw**.
Now let’s take a closer look at the same numbers for the 2008 squad in a side-by-side comparison…
Notes on the table…
- On the 2009 squad, only Randy Choate has allowed fewer than 25%. In 2008, 6 pitchers were at 25.0% or less including JP Howell’s ridiculous 11.4%.
- We can’t quite figure out Chad Bradford. Runners on base is supposed to be his expertise. He is a double-play specialist. And yet, in each of the past two seasons, he has allowed inherited runners to score at an alarming rate***. In fact, Bradford led the 2008 Rays with 10 inherited runners scored despite only being on the team for less than two months.
So, has the Rays bullpen just been unlucky of late? Maybe. After all, it seems that inherited runners are scoring at a close to 100% clip recently. But on the other hand, the bullpen pales in comparison to the 2008 squad despite several other indicators that suggest otherwise.
*The AL average is fairly consistent from year-to-year. Over the last three seasons it has been 34.6%, 34.4%, 31.3%. Also consider that the Rays 2009 rate may actually be worse than appears. Joe Maddon leads the AL in pitching changes this season and is wearing a path between the dugout and the mound at a higher rate than last year. Take a hypothetical situation in 2008 where James Shields gives up a lead-off single in the 8th and gets pulled for Grant Balfour. Balfour then strikes out 3 straight batters to retire the runner. The Rays rate for that inning is 1 inherited runner, none scored. Now let’s take same situation in 2009, only JoeMa uses three different relief pitchers to get the next 3 outs and strand the runner. Each time the Rays bring in a new relief pitcher, it counts as a new inherited runner. The Rays rate for the 2009 example is 3 inherited runners, none scored, even though in reality it was the same runner the entire inning.
** As hard of a time as we have always given Shawn Camp, we are aware that it wasn’t entirely his fault. He was just the worst possible relief pitcher for the way that team was constructed. He was a groundball pitcher on a team with an infield that played defense as though they were wearing cement shoes. And we still have not forgiven Joe Maddon for continuing to use him in crucial situations all season.
*** Bradford’s 2008 numbers are just in his time with the Rays. He was much better with the O’s prior to being traded, allowing only 8 of 29 (27.6%) runners to score.
Sep 11
BJ Upton, who is sidelined with a sore ankle, is not ready to call it a season, saying he wants to return in the final weeks. That’s nice, but what caught our attention was Upton speaking to the press about his shoulder and how it was never 100% this season following off-season surgery and how that explains his poor performance this year.
[Upton] believes his difficulties at the plate are tied directly to his return from [shoulder] surgery, which sidelined him into spring training and kept him on the disabled list for the first week of the season…”It was just kind of, all right, go rehab and if you’re ready to play, you’re ready to play,” Upton said. “I never had time to really work and get the repetitions.”…Even worse, the shoulder remains an issue even now, something in the background that he can’t quite seem to overcome…”It doesn’t hurt by any means, but it’s just not fully there, fully healthy,” he said. “It’s healthy enough to play, definitely. Sometimes it aches, sometimes it just feels tired – it’s never that consistency that I’m looking for.
One of our biggest concerns heading into the season was how Upton would adjust to life after shoulder surgery. Remember, this was not a one-time injury. Upton had injured his shoulder in the same manner (during a swing) each of the past six seasons. This just happened to be the first time the injury required surgery. Upton either needed to change his swing and risk losing his amazing bat speed or keep his swing the same and risk reinjuring the shoulder.
On the surface, it appears as though Upton has not changed his swing. And one has to wonder if that has hindered his recovery from surgery. Either way, this at least provides hope that their is a better Bossman Junior on the horizon for 2010.
Tampa Bay Rays’ B.J. Upton aggravates ankle injury in return to lineup [St. Pete Times]
Despite ankle, Upton still wants to play this year [Tampa Tribune]
Sep 11
The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- At 72-68, the Rays are just 4 games over .500 for the first time since June 25 when they were 39-35.
- Just in case you were curious, CoolStandings.com still gives the Rays a 0.1% shot at the playoffs. Baseball Prospetus is still bullish at 0.2%, but their PECOTA version says 0.08%. We are pretty sure that each of those numbers would be at least 98.0% if the Rays were chasing the Mets.
- Carlos Pena had successful surgery on his broken fingers and is expected to be 100% in 8-10 weeks. [The Heater]
- Marc Topkin looks at what the Rays have to play for in the final weeks of the season. [St. Pete Times]
- Meanwhile, several of the players admit they would love to spoil the Red Sox playoff run. [St. Pete Times]
- The Rays are still considered the 12th best team in baseball according to Tim Brown at Yahoo! Sports. No, not that Tim Brown. That would be kinda cool. [Yahoo! Sports]
Sep 11
Louisville 5, Durham 2 (series tied 1-1). Mitch Talbot worked just 3 innings, and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 3…The first two batters of the game for the Bulls would score. The first on a Joe Dillon single and the second on a Matt Joyce double-play ground ball. But that would be all the scoring for Durham.
Charlotte 3, Ft. Myers 2 (Charlotte wins series 2-1 ). David Newmann struck out 10 batters in 6 innings, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits and a walk to help the Stone Crabs advance to the FSL championship series…Mike McCormick’s 2-out, 2-run single in the 2nd gave the Stone Crabs an early 2-0 lead they would never relinquish.
Notes from Down on the Farm…
- Triangle Offense has the game 2 recap…Also, due to all of the promotions to the Rays and the season-ending injury to Carlos Hernandez, games 4 and 5 (if necessary) will be started by Rayner Oliveros and Paul Phillips. [Triangle Offense]
- Charlotte will face the Tampa Yankees in the FSL Championship Series starting Friday night in a best-of-5 series. Games 3-5 (if necessary) will be held in Port Charlotte beginning on Sunday.
- Jeremy Hall who went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA for Charlotte this season, overcame a horrific eye injury and several surgeries his senior year of college. Really, don’t read this story if you just ate. [Charlotte Sun]
