hangoverWe are a little more than 48 hours from the trade deadline and for the first time ever, the Rays have been linked with just about every big name available. Of course that will happen when you are in contention and everybody loves your farm system.

So are the Rays buyers? Are they sellers? Are they cross-traders? Let’s take a look at the players that could be dealt and place some odds on a deal being made. One thing to keep in mind, we are still leaning towards nothing major happening. Remember, the next time the Rays acquire a big named player at the deadline will also be the first time…

Brian Shouse/Randy Choate – We are hedging our bets, but this is the deal we see as most likely. The Rays right now have two lefty specialists and they only need one. And this time of year, the only thing more valuable than a lefty relief specialist is a starting pitcher in his prime. Which one is moved? Depends on who is asking, but this should net the Rays a prosepct…90.0%

Scott Kazmir – The Rays want Cliff Lee and they may try to get Lee and Victor Martinez. but adding that salary requires cutting some excess money that is already in-house. Kazmir is tops on that list. But the problem the Rays face is that he is not good enough right now to be attractive to contenders and he makes too much money to be attractive to rebuilding teams. Will somebody bite after seeing his strong start last night? Will Rays still want to move him? The Rays won’t sell cheap. But they might sell medium…49.9%

Reid Brignac – Other teams will ask for Wade Davis. The Rays will offer Reid Brignac. There is some sentiment that the Indians could use a shortstop, but obviously they want the pitcher. But we can also see a situation where Kazmir stays and the Rays give up on Cliff Lee and instead go after bullpen help. Brignac might be the piece to get that done. Right now the odds are a little lower, but keep in mind that the Rays may only deal Kazmir if they know another deal is waiting. If Kazmir goes, this number jumps considerably…33.3%

Wade Davis – This is the guy everybody wants and for the first time, the Rays appear willing to move him. His strong numbers throughout the minors have taken a small step back this season. Not bad, but not great either. And if the Rays are willing to deal, that means there is something they don’t like. Like Brignac, Davis is likely only moved if Kazmir goes first, unless one thinks the Rays would move Davis for Victor Martinez…33.2%

Lance Cormier/Chad Bradford/Joe Nelson/Dan Wheeler – Again, take your pick, but one thing we know is that the Rays are deep in the bullpen and there are options in Durham. If somebody is desperate for relief help and the Rays cannot move one of the lefties, the Rays could easily live without one of these guys in return for a prospect and maybe some cash. And if the Rays feel the chances of making the playoffs are dwindling, this number may be higher…25.0%

Carlos Pena – This one just popped up on the radar yesterday and it makes sense. If the Rays are serious about cutting payroll, they have more options to fill Carl Crawford’s spot, but Pena makes just as much in 2010 and who would you rather keep? Finding a first baseman would certainly be easier than finding a Carl Crawford. Still, if the Rays fancy themselves contenders this season, trading a slugging first baseman would be a bit unusual…3.19%

Carl Crawford – Rays would move CC if given an offer that can’t refuse, but all indications are that a trade is more likely to happen after the season…1.0%

Jeremy Hellickson – Hellboy is the next big thing and unlike Wade Davis, he is still dominating, so there is no reason to think he is any more available than last year when the Rays gave an emphatic “NO” to all who asked…0.5%

Matt Moore/Nick Barnese – This is the next wave of great pitchers in the Rays system and while teams will certainly ask, we have to believe that they are untouchable…0.01%



  1. Amanda says:

    Woo! Cork, check it out: Zorilla as the poster boy for getting a deadline steal:


    Dang, did Ben Zobrist ever think his mug would be the front-page story on Sports Illustrated. What a country! 🙂

  2. bobrittner says:

    Very reasonable odds, I think. I do think that a deal of Shouse or Choate would only bring back a prospect if we define prospect in the broadest possible way.

    I also agree that it is unlikely there will be a major deal. Perhaps something like a lesser prospect for a reliever, or as you suggest one of the current relievers for a low level prospect.

  3. Brixology says:

    Lee is a Phil, according to MLB Trade Rumors. We're not going to do anything. Just hope for the best and move salary around in the offseason. Would be nice to get Halladay out of the division while we're at it.


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