Jul 20
After the first month of the season, many thought Evan Longoria was going to run away with the AL MVP award this year. Now, as we enter the second-half of the season, Dirtbag may not even be the MVP of the Rays. Based on wOBA (similar to OPS, but on an OBP scale), Longo has only been the 4th best hitter over the first 92 games of the season.
So is Longoria still a legitimate candidate for AL MVP? Is he even a candidate for Rays MVP? Are his 70 RBI, the one category that may be out of his control, enough to keep him in the race?
Of course, none of this considers defensive contributions, pitchers, or even BJ Upton, the AL player of the month in June. Unfortunately, his horrid start leaves him with just a .711 OPS and a .326 wOBA on the year.
Jul 20
Back in February we put together a meta-analysis, a comprehensive ranking of the Rays top 14 prospects. With most minor league seasons well into the second-half, let’s take a look at how those prospects are performing to date…
- David Price – The season has been more growing pains than a march to the AL Rookie of the Year award. After making 8 starts for Durham, the Rays promoted Price to the big leagues on May 25th. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but the norm has been a pitcher that struggles to throw strikes in short stints, which has led to 31 walks in 44 innings and a 4.70 ERA (6.30 tRA). All indications are that the Rays are willing to accept the struggles as Price learns to pitch while in the big leagues.
- Tim Beckham – Beckham has spent the entire season in single-A and so far he is holding his own against the older competition. He is hitting .277/.331/.404 with 4 home runs. The red flags are the 32 errors in 82 games, the 7-15 stolen bases and the 77 t0 23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But there is plenty of time to improve all three of those aspects.
- Wade Davis – Davis has been good this season, but he is yet to be great like most expected for a top prospect. In 19 starts, Davis is 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA (3.95 tRA). The worrisome stat is the 94 to 43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You would like to see that number closer to 3-to-1. There is still a very good chance Davis is called up later this season to fill a role in the bullpen similar to what David Price provided a year ago.
- Reid Brignac – Brignac came up in May and played 21 games for the Rays, hitting .271/.295/.390, but started to look more comfortable in the last few games going 8-20 (.400) over his final 6 games. His season in triple-A has been decent with a respectable .809 OPS and .357 wOBA. And you have to like that he is striking out about once every two games considering that number was about once per game last season.
- Jeremy Hellickson – Hellboy missed some time with a minor shoulder injury, but that hasn’t slowed his ascent through the minors. In 11 starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA (2.81 tRA) and he continues to pound the strikezone, striking out 62 in 56.2 innings, with only 14 walks.
- Desmond Jennings – For the first month of the season, we finally started to see the talent that everybody has been waiting for. He has cooled a bit recently, but his numbers are still great, hitting .328/.411/.511 with 40 extra-base hits and 35-40 in stolen bases. On top of that, the Rays have started giving him more playing time in the corner outfield spots in an effort to open up more options for a move to the big leagues in late ’10 or early ’11.
- Nick Barnese – Barnese is making single-A look easy, going 4-3 with a 2.03 ERA in 9 starts. He has 29 Ks and just 12 walks in 44.1 innings.
- Matt Moore – Moore is also cruising through the SAL and in a more dominating manor. In 17 starts, he is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA (3.27 tRA). The most impressive number is 116 strikeouts in just 81.2 innings with 45 walks. He just turned 20, but he should be in Montgomery shortly.
- Jake McGee – McGee made his ’09 debut Saturday night for Charlotte, giving up 3 runs in 2.2 innings. The good news is that McGee is still on schedule following Tommy John surgery and should be 100% next Spring.
- Jeff Niemann – Niemann wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation until the Rays traded Jason Hammel prior to the season and now he is one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year. In 16 starts, he leads the Rays with 8 wins and leads the AL with 2 shutouts. You would like to see more strikeouts from the power righty, but one can’t argue with the 3.73 ERA.
- John Jaso – He is hitting .243/.342/.354 in 71 triple-A games and continues to show excellent command of the strikezone with 35 strikeouts and 32 walks. That bodes well for his future as a big league hitter. He may never be great, but he should be serviceable and will not be overmatched.
- Fernando Perez – Perez broke his wrist in spring training and has yet to make his ’09 debut. He recently participated in a simulated game but no timetable has been put forth for his return.
- Mitch Talbot – Talbot is quickly losing ground amongst the Rays starting pitchers. This season, in 10 starts, he is 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA.
- Jake Jefferies – The development of a catcher is usually a slow process and one that is very difficult to gauge in the boxscores and statlines. In 80 games, he is hitting .269/.341/.371.
Jul 20
One year ago on Rays Index we first discovered “Batting Stance Guy” and his take on the Rays.
Batting Stance Guy Does The Rays, Oy Vey! [Rays Index]
Jul 20
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: The Comeback Kids. Last year, the Rays entered the break reeling with a 7-game losing streak and fell to second place in the East. This year, it was just a 2-game losing streak, but it feels like the team has been reeling all season. Last year, it was a comeback win on the first game out of the break that got the team rolling once again. Might 3 straight come from behind wins and a sweep of the Royals do the same in ’09?…Double-Play to Save the Day. With the Rays trailing 3-2 in the 7th, the Royals loaded the bases with just 1 out. Grant Balfour enduced an inning-ending double-play to get out of the jam…JP Howell. 9 up, 9 down. Three straight saves. But he is still not the closer.
THE BAD: The Starting Pitching. The Rays started the second-half with their 3 most experienced starters, and none worked into the 7th inning. They allowed 11 runs in 17.1 innings. There is only so much the bullpen can do. The Rays will not make the playoffs unless they start getting more consistent work from their starters…Matt Garza. Garza loaded the bases with no outs in the second. He then got the next 2 batters without allowing a run and got ahead of David DeJesus 1-2. But 3 pitches later, Garza walked in the go-ahead run. A meltdown of epic proportions. Garza walked 5 in 5 innings and seemed to be battling himself all day…Pat the No Contact. Despite showing some flashes of brilliance recently, it wasn’t there on Sunday as Pat Burrell went 0-4 with 4 strikeouts and 5 runners left on base…
THE TELLING: Sure it was only the third game after the break, but the Rays don’t have an off-day this upcoming week. So it was a little surprising that Joe Maddon went with his normal starting lineup during a day-game…The Rays are now 51-41, 4.5 games back in the AL East and 3.5 in back of the Yankees who apparently never lose. The Yankees and Rays are also 1-2 in the Wild Card race with the Rangers 5 back and Seattle 5.5 back. Anybody think either of those teams are a threat?…CoolStandings.com gives the Rays a 41.7% shot at making the playoffs. PECOTA says it is 25.5%.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Scott Kazmir was pulled on Saturday with tightness in his forearm. Joe Maddon says Kaz will likely make his next start. [The Heater]
- Brian Shouse could be ready to rejoin the Rays this weekend. Tony Fabrizio also says the Rays will not rush the return of Shawn Riggans as they have been pleased with Michel Hernandez. [Tampa Tribune]
- Alan Schwarz of the New York Times has a piece on Ben Zobrist and his rise to one of the “most valuable assets in the league.” [New York Times]
- The hit didn’t go far, but it was huge for Carlos Pena. [St. Pete Times]
- The Negro League Museum in Kansas City awarded Joe Maddon with the CI Taylor award given to the AL’s top manager of 2008. [MLB]
- John Romano sums up the Rays closer situation nicely: “It’s not that the Rays do not want to name a closer. They just have no reason to.” [St. Pete Times]
- Tony Fabrizio writes that Pat Burrell is starting to look like he is past the next injury. [Tampa Tribune]
- Her Rays sends Matt Garza back to the Baseball Guru. [Her Rays!]
- David Chalk has the breakdown of Ryan Lefebvre comparing Dan Wheeler to a standing fetus. [Bugs and Cranks]
Jul 20
Louisville 7, Durham 6 (13). Matt DeSalvo walked 5 and gave up 3 runs in 5 innings…Reid Brignac went 2-7 with a triple and an RBI while Matt Joyce was 1-5…Chris Richard had 3 hits including his 17th home run…John Jaso was 0-5 with 4 of the Bulls 17 strikeouts.
West Tenn 6, Montgomery 1. Brandon Mann dropped to 5-6 after giving up 2 runs in 6 innings…Desmond Jennings went 1-3 with a walk and his 36th steal…Cody Cipriano was 0-2.
Charlotte @ Lakeland. (ppd. wet grounds)
Bowling Green 4, Delmarva 2. Matt Moore didn’t pick up the win, but struck out 7 and allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. He gave up 4 hits and walked 3…Tim Beckham was 0-5 with a strikeout…Jake Jefferies went 2-3 with 2 walks and a double.
Hudson Valley 12, Jamestown 2.
Princeton 10, Pulaski 9.
Notes from Down on the Farm…
- Jake McGee made his ’09 debut with Charlotte on Saturday night. He allowed 3 runs in 2.2 innings, striking out 3 and walking 2. [MiLB]
- Lots of blame to go around in the Bulls loss last night. [Triangle Offense]
- Joe Gaetti has been released. [Montgomery Advertiser]
