Jun 18
The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Thursday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this week’s agida-level can be found after the graph..
Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…
- The most common response for “Confidence in 2009 Rays” was 8 with 41.1%.
- The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 9 with 36.6%.
Jun 18
One year ago on Rays Index we discovered a video from when The Trop first opened.
Tropicana Field When It Still Wore Diapers [Rays Index]
Jun 18
Up until first pitch, use the comments section to predict who you think will be the Sunburst Player of the Game. (be sure to use a valid email address while leaving the comment). The commenter that correctly predicts who we will name the Sunburst Player of the Game the most times prior to the all-star game, will win two tickets to a second-half game. Runners-up get their choice of a t-shirt. [Click HERE for rules]
Check Marc Topkin’s blog for the starting lineups.
Jun 18
We have talked a lot recently about how the Rays have underperformed their Pythagorean Record* and some of the reasons why.
Most recently we showed both the offense and the pitching were taking a step back late in close games, whereas last season both aspects stepped up their game in those clutch situations.
Now we may have the answer…
As of June 9th (prior to facing the Nationals) the Rays had played the toughest schedule in baseball based on Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system.
We have often cited the Rays strong bullpen as a reason the Rays outperformed their Pythagorean Record in 2008. This season the Rays have faced the toughest schedule so far. And one thing most good teams have in a common, is a strong bullpen. So in essence the Rays are getting some of their own medicine early in the season.
But there is hope. Over the remaining portion of the regular season, the Rays have the second biggest drop-off in strength of schedule.
Also of note are the Yankees who had a .507 opponent win percentage through June 9th and a .505 opponent win percentage after.
This is a long-winded way of saying that the schedule favors the the Rays improving their record up to and possibly beyond their Pythagorean (expected) win total. And this bodes very well for the Rays run to a second straight playoff appearance.
*Pythagorean Record is a formula that calculates how many wins a team should have based on their runs scored and runs allowed.
Prospectus Hit and Run [Baseball Prospectus]
Jun 18
Two days ago we reminded you that a pizzeria in Denver was giving away free pizza to Rays fans. We put a call out for photos and Ken came through (thanks Ken).
click on image for larger version
We will let Ken explain the scene…
There was free food, so naturally media followed — Dave the Rays Radio guy was there, as was Mark Topkin (you can see him in the picture). 50 or so Rays fans inside and outside the place. From where they were even 2 years ago when the visited Denver and there was maybe 30 of us in Rays garb, to last night when the Rays fans took over the ballpark late — there had to be 1,500 Rays fans there last night. Incredible. A guy in a Matt Joyce jersey at Coors Field for crying out loud.
It is like a proud papa watching his child drink their first beer. The Rayshead Army is growing up right before our eyes.
Jun 18
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: David Price. The 3-run home run was not good. And he basically took a dump on the mound in the second inning, but we saw a lot of positive signs moving forward. Better pitch efficiency (he worked 7 innings), he threw strikes (71 of 99) and he wasn’t overthrowing his fastball. Most were 93-94 occasionally touching 95. Recently he has been 94-96 with the occasional 97 or 98…The Truffle Shuffle. We just love it anytime Pat Burrell does something that involves running “full speed.” As in, he had a straight steal of second base last night (above). It just looks so painful and somehow he stole the bag without hurting anybody, including himself…Back-to-Back and Belly-to-Belly. Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria went yard in consecutive at bats.
THE BAD: The Second Inning. It was bad. It was ugly. It should never happen. It did. Let’s move on…Looking For Glove In All The Wrong Places. Pat Burrell indeed started in right field. Ugh. Although Burrell may have had the quote of the month when he said prior to the game, “I’ve got the chalk, BJ has everything else.”
THE TELLING: With the Rays sweeping the worst team in baseball, it meant nothing unless the Nats could come through against the Yankees and they did, winning last night. That loss by the Yankees is as good as picking up a game in the standings…It has been pointed out to us that in the first game of this series Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross combined for the first Gabecycle in MLB history. We hope you will forgive us for our oversight (thanks John).
SUNBURST PLAYER OF THE GAME: Evan Longoria
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- In case you missed it in the earlier segment, Scott Kazmir made his first rehab start last night and it was a good one, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings, striking out 5 and walking just 1. He allowed 3 hits. [MiLB]
- Joe Smith reports that Scott Kazmir will next pitch for Durham on Monday. Smith also has quotes from Kaz on his night. [The Heater]
- Pedro Martinez confirms that his agent has spoken with both the Cubs and the Rays and Pedro says there is a good chance he will sign soon. [AP]
- Marc Topkin still calls a deal with Pedro Martinez “unlikely.” [The Heater]
- Marc Lancaster also calls a Pedro Martinez signing “unlikely.” [Rays Report]
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says it is doubtful the Cubs have room in the payroll to add Pedro Martinez. [Chicago Sun-Times]
- Rays the Stakes puts The Trop and Coors Field in a head-to-head battle to the death. Click through to see the winner. [Rays the Stakes]
- Joe Maddon named his coaching staff for the all-star game and in a case of Joe being Joe, he went against the grain with his picks. [Tampa Tribune]
- A story on how one Rays fan became a sports marketing intern for the Rays. [University of Richmond]
Jun 18
Lehigh 4, Durham 0 (11). Jason Cromer pitched 8 shutout innings, allowing just 2 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 5…Chad Bradford pitched 1 scoreless inning…Dale Thayer pitched the final 2 innings, and gave up 4 runs (2 earned)…Reid Brignac was 2-4 in his first game back in Durham…Matt Joyce was 0-5 and Justin Ruggiano was 1-5 with a double.
Montgomery 5, West Tenn 2. Chris Mason picked up his first win as a starter in what seems like 7 years. He allowed 2 runs in 5 innings…Eddie Morlan allowed a run in 1 inning but picked up his 4th save…Desmond Jennings was 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI and a walk. He also stole 2 bases and now has 24…Matt Fields was 0-5 with 4 strikeouts.
Charlotte 7, Lakeland 3. Scott Kazmir pitched 4.2 scoreless innings in his first rehab start, striking out 5 and walking just 1. He allowed 3 hits…Shawn Williams was 4-5 with 4 doubles. He had just 2 doubles in his first 30 games of the season. He drove in 4…Cody Cipriano was 1-4 with a double of his own…Shawn O’Malley was 3-4 with a walk and his 21st stolen base. He scored 4 runs.
Bowling Green 5, Lexington 2. Matt Moore had a no-hitter through 6.2 innings and was pulled after allowing his first hit, a single in the 7th. After walking the first batter he faced, Moore retired the next 15 batters, 7 on strikes. He finished with 10 Ks and 2 walks…Tim Beckham had a 2-run double in the 3-run 9th that broke a 2-2 tie.
Notes from Down on the Farm…
