Jun 16
One year ago on Rays Index we showed you that Andy Sonnanstine struggled when he started changing his arm angles.
Andy Sonnanstine Struggles When He Changes Arm Angles [Rays Index]
Archive for June 16th, 2009
Jun 16
Up until first pitch, use the comments section to predict who you think will be the Sunburst Player of the Game. (be sure to use a valid email address while leaving the comment). The commenter that correctly predicts who we will name the Sunburst Player of the Game the most times prior to the all-star game, will win two tickets to a second-half game. Runners-up get their choice of a t-shirt. [Click HERE for rules]
Check Marc Topkin’s blog for the starting lineups.
Jun 16
A couple of weeks ago, we showed that, in contrast to the 2008 Rays, the 2009 Rays were underperforming their Pythagorean record. That is, despite leading the American League in runs scored, and run differential, the Rays were still just a .500 ballclub.
After sweeping the Nationals, the Rays are 33-31, but based on their runs scored and runs allowed, their record should be closer to 38-26, which would put the Rays 1 game behind the Red Sox in the AL East.
So why have the Rays underperformed their Pythagorean (Expected) Record?
One reason we have stated previously is the Rays performance in 1-run games. Last year’s team was 29-18 in 1-run games. As a result, the 2008 Rays actually outperformed their Pythagorean Record by 5 games, finishing 97-65. This season, the Rays are only 8-13 in 1-run games, and that is after winning two 1-run games this past weekend.
So why is this team so awful in close games?
Let’s go to the numbers and see how the 2008 and 2009 Rays performed overall as compared to how they performed in clutch (Close and Late*) situations…
A few notes on the chart…
- In 2008, both the offense and the pitching got better in clutch situations.
- We see the exact opposite in 2009, the offense’s OPS goes down in the clutch while the pitching’s OPS allowed goes up.
- Overall, the offense is much better in 2009 with an OPS 52 points higher as compared to last season. However, they are actually 9 points worse in clutch situations as compared to 2008.
- The relief pitching has not been as good overall as they were in 2008. Their OPS allowed has increased by 27 points. But when the game is on the line, the OPS allowed has increased a whopping 89 points as compared to 2008.
With both the offense and the pitching staff doing worse in clutch situations this season, the obvious question is: Why? This is where it gets tricky.
Some possible explanations…
- Small sample size. As somebody that plays with statistics a lot in their day job, we are yet to see a convincing argument about what exactly a “small sample size” is in baseball. It would seem to us that one-third of the season, 352 plate appearances for the offense and 367 plate appearances for the pitchers is a fair sample size in this case.
- The Rays miss the veteran presence. The 2008 squad included Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske and a full-time Troy Percival. All three of those players were veterans that had been through the battles many times. But more importantly, all three were considered players that the younger members of the team leaned on. Maybe there is something to be said about the calming influence and leadership those three provided in the most tense situations. And while separately, each player was expendable, maybe it was too much to lose all three.
- The Rays miss Jonny Gomes. We have seen quite a bit of sentiment in the comments that the Rays miss Jonny’s fire and cheerleading. Most dismiss the claim, but one cannot deny that Gomes was a very vocal and fiery player. Maybe his cheerleading pushed some members of the team to lift their game a notch in crucial situations.
In the end, we don’t know what the answer is. All we know is that the 2008 American League champions came through more often than not when the game was on the line. And the 2009 Rays do not. Can they turn it around? We need to see those numbers above take a turn for the better before we get too excited, and that means more than winning a couple of close games against one of the worst teams of the last 40 years.
*Close and Late is defined as plate appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
Jun 16
Last summer, John Keiley, owner of a pizzeria in Lakewood, Colorado, offered free pizza to any Rays fans if the Rays won the World Series. Well, as you know, The Phraudulent Phillies cheated the Rays out of their rightful place in history*.
Recognizing that an injustice had been served, Keiley contacted Marc Topkin after the World Series and let it be known that he was still going to make good on his offer.
“Let your readers know that … all Rays fans (who) show up at the pizza shop with a Rays hat or jersey … they can eat free on Wednesday the 17th — anything they want.”
Got that? Anything you want. Apparently the pizzeria (Johnny’s New York Pizza & Pasta Shop) is only 15 minutes from Coors Field.
So who is going? We would love to hear about it and we would love to see pics.
*no, we are not going to let go
Free Pizza If The Rays Win The World Series [Rays Index]
Free pizza deal lives … [The Heater]
Jun 16
From time to time we are going to take a look at the 2009 attendance and see how the 2009 season stacks up against last year and whether the Rays can reach their goal of being average (in attendance).
Notes on the attendance follow the graph…
Notes on the 2009 attendance…
- The Rays drew 1.8 million fans in 2008. That was the most since their inaugural season of 1998 when they drew 2.5 million.
- The Rays goal for 2009 is league average which was 2.6 million in 2008 (the median was about 2.5 million). However, attendance is down overall in baseball and right now league average projects to be slightly less than 2.4 million (red line above) with a median of 2.2 million. The Rays would need to average 29,200 to reach league average and about 26,800 to reach the median.
- Last year the Rays averaged 22,370 over 81 games. After 33 home games last year they were averaging 18,228.
- This year the Rays are averaging 22,796, 23rd in baseball, and are on pace for 1.85 million, barely more than what they drew last season.
Jun 16
Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.
Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. We will present these same polls every Tuesday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Thursday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time.
Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…
- The Rays are 34-31, tied with the Jays for 3rd place in the AL East, 5 games behind the Red Sox and 3 games behind the Yankees. In the past week, the Rays lost 2 of 3 to the Yankees, won 2 of 3 from the Angels and swept 3 from the Nationals.
- A look at who’s hot and who’s not.
- Jason Isringhausen is out for the season. Pat Burrell and Jason Bartlett are back from the DL. Scott Kazmir is set to begin a rehab assignment.
- There are reports that the Rays are considering a move to bring Pedro Martinez on board.
- The Rays drafted LeVon Washington in the first round, but considering who his agent is, it might be a while before he puts on a uniform.
Jun 16
[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Kevin Kennedy
Ben Zobrist, BJ Upton, Jason Isringhausen, Kevin Kennedy 10 Comments »
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: Kevin Kennedy. As a former catcher, we always prefer the perspective of somebody that wore the tools of ignorance. Despite 15 years behind the plate and a couple of years coaching, we often find ourselves learning something from Kennedy about the game and the craft.
THE BAD: Kevin Kennedy. We really wish Kennedy would offer up his opinion on taking infield practice prior to a game (end sarcasm). We generally try to catch the opposing team’s broadcast for the first game of every series so we can get a feel for how others view the Rays. That means that we have only caught the Rays broadcast crew for about 35-40 games this season (we do radio from time to time). And in just those games we must have heard Kennedy rant about infield practice at least 4 times.
THE TELLING: Kevin Kennedy. You can tell that he is still learning the Rays and the organization. We can’t expect him to sound like somebody that has covered the team for 10 years. There is certainly a learning curve. For the most part we have been happy with his commentary, even if sometimes it sounds like Dewayne Staats has left the booth to go get a hot dog.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Jason Isringhausen’s MRI showed that he has a torn UCL in his elbow and is done for the season. He will need Tommy John surgery. His agent says that Izzy plans to pitch again. [St. Pete Times]
- The Rays Party has a couple of great before and after pictures showing how Ben Zobrist is now using his lower body to generate more power. [The Rays Party]
- Joe Smith has a piece on BJ Upton’s growing Gold Glove chances, with quotes from somebody that knows the award well, Torii Hunter…In the same piece, Joe Maddon admits that even though he would prefer Ben Zobrist as a utility player, Zorilla has earned a shot to be the most-days second baseman. [St. Pete Times]
- Joe Smith writes about Jeff Niemann’s rocky road as a professional. [St. Pete Times]
- Rays Revolutionary offers up some Fathers Day shopping ideas, Rays Style. [Rays Revolutionary]
- Rays the Stakes pens an open letter to the Rays. [Rays the Stakes]
Jun 16
Lehigh Valley 8, Durham 5. Julio DePaula started and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 2.2 innings…Dale Thayer pitched a perfect inning with 1 strike out…Matt Joyce was 0-4 with a strikeout…Justin Ruggiano was 0-4 with 2 Ks…Rhyne Hughes had a double and an RBI while John Jaso finished 1-4.
Chattanooga 5, Montgomery 3. Brian Baker picked up his first loss of the season after giving up 5 runs in 3 innings, 4 in the first…Desmond Jennings was 0-4 and his average is now all the way down to .327…Matt Fields was 2-4 with a pair of singles.
Charlotte 5, Lakeland 1. Jeremy Hall picked up his 7th win giving up only 1 run in 7 innings on 4 hits and no walks. He struck out 7…Cody Cipriano was 1-4 with a double…Henry Wrigley was 2-3 and hit his 1st home run with Charlotte.
Greenville 13, Bowling Green 0. Joe Cruz struck out 8 in 3.1 innings, but gave up 4 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks…Tim Beckham was 0-4 with a pair of strikeouts…Jake Jefferies was 1-4 with a passed ball.
Notes from Down on the Farm…
- No links today
