Up until first pitch, use the comments section to predict who you think will be the Sunburst Player of the Game. (be sure to use a valid email address while leaving the comment). The commenter that correctly predicts who we will name the Sunburst Player of the Game the most times prior to the all-star game, will win two tickets to a second-half game. Runners-up get their choice of a t-shirt. [Click HERE for rules]
Check Marc Topkin’s blog for the starting lineups.
Akinori Iwamura tore the ACL in his knee and is out for the season. This injury will have more repercussions than simply reassigning the second base job. Let’s take a closer look at the impact on different individuals in the Rays organization…
Aki Iwamura: The Rays have a 2010 club option on Iwamura for $4.25 million ($250K buyout). The Rays will be over budget next season by $15-20 million and there are other options to play second base (Reid Brignac, Willy Aybay, Ben Zobrist). Simply declining the option would be a good start towards balancing the books.
But can the Rays simply cut ties with a player making less than he is worth? Based on WAR, Iwamura had an average value of $10.9 million to the Rays in ’07 and ’08. So $4.25 million is still a very reasonable amount for a second baseman that plays gold glove caliber defense and gets on base about 35% of the time. Having players like Aki on the roster, players that outperform their salary, is the only way the Rays can stay competitive in the AL East.
Another option would be to pick up the option and then trade Aki. But at this point, it is doubtful the Rays would get fair value for a player that will be coming off of a very serious knee injury.
Reid Brignac: This is Brignac’s shot to prove he can be part of the Rays’ future. Brignac will be out of minor league options in 2010 and the second base job may be the only way for him to stay with the Rays organization beyond this season. So giving Brignac the bulk of the playing time at second base over the remaining 115 games is the simplest solution and requires the fewest changes to the team. It would also help the team decide what to do with Brignc in 2010 and beyond.
Ben Zobrist: Sure he is a super-duper-utility guy, but Zorilla has been recast this season as a power-hitting corner outfielder. So far in 2009, Zobrist has made 33 appearances combined (15 starts) in right field and left field and only 9 appearances (6 starts) in the middle infield. It would be easy to assume that Zobrist would help pick up the slack with increased playing time at second base, but we are not so sure. Joe Maddon loves the new Zorilla and would probably prefer to keep using him in the same manner and fill the missing playing time from someplace else.
Willy Aybar: Aybar’s situation is a cross between Brignac and Zobrist. On the one hand, an opening at second base is a chance to get Aybar’s bat into the lineup on a more consistent basis. In fact, it was Aybar that started at second in the first game after Aki’s injury (Brignac filled in for Jason Bartlett who had the night off). But like Zobrist, Maddon has a plan for Aybar and he may not want to deviate too much from that. Aybar on the bench gives Maddon depth and flexibility, two things he craves above all else.
Andrew Friedman: Boy. Think he is kicking himself for trading Adam Kennedy? The Rays always say they would rather make a move too soon as opposed to too late. But in this case, the Rays traded Kennedy too soon.
Summary: In the end, most of the decisions that are to be made, may hinge on how Brignac performs. If he can handle the job on a most-days basis, it allows Maddon the opportunity to keep using Zobrist in Aybar to their maximum effectiveness and ultimately it could make Aki’s 2010 option expendable.
David Price began the season in the minor leagues for a couple of reasons. At the time, the team spoke about the need to improve his changeup and increase his command of the strike zone.
Just as important was the need to limit the number of pitches Price throws this season.
Some call it “The Verducci Effect” after Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, who first wrote about the risk of young pitchers (under 25) throwing more than 30 innings over their previous career-high.
The Rays use a slight variation, in that they try to limit their pitchers to a 20% increase over the previous season. Last season, Price logged 129.1 innings between the minors and the Rays (including the postseason). A 20% increase would allow Price to throw 155-160 innings in 2009.
After last night’s season debut, Price has now thrown 37.2 innings. If Price remains in the rotation for the rest of the season, he will make 22-23 additional starts for which he will be limited to about 120 innings or about 5.5 innings per start.
In other words, expect Price to be limited to 90-100 pitches per start and on most nights he will be out of the game after 5 or 6 innings.
Of course, none of this considers any postseason play. If the Rays are true to their word…and this is an organization that rarely deviates from the script…Price may not be part of the rotation for any potential postseason action.
If Price has already thrown 155-160 innings by the end of the regular season, expect him to be moved to the bullpen should the Rays make the postseason. The Rays just aren’t an organization that is willing to risk too much of the future for the chance to win in the present.
Last season the Rays outperformed their Pythagorean Record by 5 games. The Pythagorean Win Percentage (PWP) suggests how many games a team should win based on how many runs a team scores and allows.
We have argued previously that the PWP is a good starting point, but there are reasons why a team may deviate from this mark other than luck. In the case of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, they may have, in part, outperformed their PWP because of their strong bullpen. Last season, the Rays had MLB’s best record in one-run games (29-18).
So far in 2009, the Rays are at the other end of the spectrum. As a team, they have scored an MLB best 273 runs and allowed 233. That equates to a Pythagorean Record of 27-20, 4 games better than their current record of 23-24, suggesting the Rays are better than their current record. A record of 27-20 would be good for second place in the AL East, 1 game behind the Red Sox and tied with the Yankees atop the Wild Card standings.
So where have the Rays gone wrong in 2009? One need look no further than the Rays ability to win close games, something they thrived at in 2008. Last night’s implosion left the Rays at 5-9 in 1-run games. At their current pace, the Rays would finish 17-31 in 1-run games, 12.5 games behind their record in similar games last season.
This screengrab came in the 4th inning. It was the first batter after Gabe Gross had just given the Rays a 10-0 lead. Reid Brignac fouled a ball down the right field line…
Yes, that is a guy wearing a retro #33 Jose Canseco “Devil Rays” jersey, showing up on TV. The Indians would go on to score 11 straight runs following this moment in what can only be termed a “Devil Raysian” performance.
Where is Troy Percival to scream at that fan?
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: King David. He showed flashes of brilliance. After a walk and a double to start the game, Price struck out the next 3 batters to get out of the jam without allowing a run…Carl Crawford. 1-4 with a walk, and he is now 29-29 on stolen bases…Gabe Gross. Drove in 3, was on base 3 times and added his second home run in 3 days.
THE BAD: Prince David. It is a learning curve, and there is much to learn. First and foremost, batters leading off an inning were on base 3 of 4 times, twice via walk. The biggest disappointment was the leadoff walk in the second inning on 4 pitches. He was just staked to a 5-0 lead and that was the worst possible start to the inning. At that point he should be pitching to contact. He also seemed a little too amped up. As a starting pitcher, Price is likely to be most effective throwing his fastball 94-95. Last night he was consistently throwing the fastball 97-98, topping out at 99. He can do that in short stints but not over 6-7 innings. Last night, you could see the toll as his fastball was 92-94 in the 4th inning. Which leads us to his pitch efficiency. Price had to be pulled in the 4th inning after throwing 100 pitches, due in large part to 5 walks…The Bullpen. We don’t have the time, the space or the inclination to properly express how Bad the bullpen was last night and we don’t have the heart to list out every culprit. Let’s just say it was ugly, Don Mossi ugly and that sound you hear? That is us pounding our head on the keyboard…Red. We are all for honoring fallen troops on Memorial Day. God knows the sacrifices my family has made. But David Price makes his 2009 debut and we have to see him wearing a red cap (above)? Atrocious.
THE TELLING: This is just not a good team. Good teams do not blow 10-run leads. They don’t blow 6-runs leads in the 9th innings. And they do not blow ANY leads to bad teams.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
Durham 3, Rochester 2. Carlos Hernandez allowed only 2 unearned runs in 6 innings on 4 hits and a walk. He struck out 1…Justin Ruggiano was 2-4 and is now hitting .253 while Matt Joyce was 1-4 and is hitting .313.
Montgomery 6, Jacksonville 5. Jason Cromer, who may be headed to triple-A soon to replace David Price, pitched 7 strong innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 4…Eddie Morlan was roughed up, allowing 3 runs in 1.1 innings as the Biscuits nearly blew a 6-1 lead…Rhyne Hughes went 0-5 with 3 strike outs and now has struck out 66 times in 45 games including 7 in his past 3 games (13 at bats)…Desmond Jennings did not start but was a defensive substitution in the 9th inning.
Charlotte (no games scheduled).
Charleston 4, Bowling Green 1. Michael Jarman made his sixth start, and was touched for 4 runs (1 earned) in 4 innings. He struck out 6, but allowed 2 home runs…Tim Beckham was 2-3 with a double and a walk. He is now hitting .313 with 40 strikeouts, 11 walks and a .354 wOBA.
Notes from Down on the Farm…
