In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have finally released “The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.”
In the Projection Blowout, stats from six different projection systems are used to project the 2009 season. The projected stats used include CHONE, Hardball Times, Marcel, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO. Each of these projections is run through 1,000 seasons.
In the overall projections (6,000 seasons), the Rays on average, finish 3rd in the AL east with 90.1 wins. The Yankees are first with 95.9 wins and the Red Sox are are close behind at 94.3 wins. Below we have summed up the results from each of the projection systems for just the Rays.
[Ed. note: This does not include the C.H.A.L.K. projection system which predicts the Rays will win 113 games this season. Don’t laugh, that system projected the Rays to go to the World Series last season.]
A few notes on the projections can be found below the table…
Notes on the Diamond Mind Projections
- For shites and giggles we put the numbers from 2007 up there because we love looking at exactly how much the pitching staff improved from 2007 to 2008. Even with the numbers staring you in the face it is still difficult to wrap your mind around them.
- Last year the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout predicted 82.1 wins for the Rays with PECOTA and CHONE both projecting win totals in the upper 80’s.
- All of the projection systems are predicting an improvement in the number of runs scored this season, with Marcel as the most bullish with 43 more in 2009.
- Only PECOTA thinks the Rays can repeat their pitching numbers of a year ago, with most projecting a slight regression in runs allowed.
- The average number of wins needed to be the AL Wild Card in the 6,000 combined projections was about 92. The Rays are just below this number, which is consistent with them making the playoffs in 41.8% of the projections.
- The high and low values for the standard deviation values suggest that the Rays will most likely win between 84 and 96 games.