Apr 09
Archive for April 9th, 2009
Apr 09
One year ago on Rays Index we noticed that the use of the new sunburst logo in the FieldTurf at The Trop was not as great in reality as it might have been on paper.
BJ Upton Nearly Swallowed Alive By Rays New Sunburst Logo [Rays Index]
Apr 09
One year ago on Rays Index we were perplexed by the inclusion of southwest Alabama as part of the Rays territorial rights.
SW Alabama Is Rays’ Country! Wait. What? [Rays Index]
Apr 09
The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Thursday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this week’s agida-level can be found after the graph..
Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…
- The most common response for “Confidence in 2009 Rays” was 9 with 33%.
- The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 10 with 41%.
Apr 09
This gameday open thread will have two parts and it is all user-generated…
- Up until first pitch, use the comments section to predict who you think will be the Sunburst Player of the Game. (be sure to use a valid email address while leaving the comment). The commenter that correctly predicts who we will name the Sunburst Player of the Game the most times prior to the all-star game, will win two tickets to a second-half game.
- Once the game starts the GBT open thread will be your thoughts during the game of what you think are The Good, The Bad and/or The Telling moments of the game.
Apr 09
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus takes some time to vent about how managers consistently misuse their bullpens (thanks Scot).
…it’s time for this nonsense to end. There shouldn’t be “eighth-inning” and “ninth-inning” relievers. Partitioning relievers by how many outs are left in the game was stupid when managers started doing it, and it’s even moreso now, as we find every bullpen in the game set up this way.
To all 30 managers, I issue this directive: Figure out who your best pitchers are, or more accurately, who your best pitchers are for various situations. For when you need a complete inning against the middle of the lineup; for when you need multiple innings; for when you need a ground ball; for when you need a strikeout; for when you need to get Jim Thome out. Then use them accordingly regardless of what time it is. Stop relying on the crutch of which inning you’re in to make these decisions for you. Your pitchers want roles? Their role is to get guys out.
These are not difficult concepts. Facing the middle of the lineup in the eighth is harder than facing the bottom of the order in the ninth, no matter how many ex-players who are invested in the myth of “closer” say otherwise. Stop using your better pitchers in lower-leverage spots. Getting four outs instead of three isn’t going to break anything that wasn’t going to break anyway, so stop losing games without getting your best pitcher into them.
Sheehan then follows this up with a telling directive to Joe Maddon.
Bullpen management is horribly broken in today’s game, and the first manager to fix it—Joe Maddon, I’m looking at you—is going to the Hall of Fame.
We agree that Maddon uses his bullpen better than most managers, but Maddon still defines specific roles for the relief pitchers. And while we agree that many managers are too rigid in how they use their bullpen, it is still more complicated than just “best pitcher for the biggest outs.”
Despite Sheehan’s missive, pitchers do prefer predefined roles. Coddling the mental well-being of an athlete is nothing new and not something to be ignored no matter how silly one thinks it is. Mariano Rivera has a very defined routine in which he spends the first 5-6 innings of the game in the clubhouse. It is part of his mental preparation to start getting prepared for the game in the 7th inning. It is not a stretch to think that Rivera would be less effective in the 6th inning if he was suddenly called into the game without a chance to prepare.
There is also the more direct physical impact on a pitcher from having to warm up multiple times in the same game. Let’s say a team has a predefined “ace” in the bullpen, but he is not necessarily assigned to the 9th inning. Now let’s say that team has a 4-run lead in the 7th and the other team starts a rally. Now the manager has the “ace” warm up in the bullpen, only to have the current pitcher kill the rally. If the other team starts another rally in the 8th, does the manager warm up that pitcher again? What about the 9th inning if he has already warmed up twice and wasn’t needed? That can be very damaging on an arm and not something Dr. James Andrews would recommend.
Finally, Sheehan also slams relief pitchers for not being able to get more than three outs. This is something that Maddon values very highly in a relief pitcher, but Maddon will also be the first to tell you that few relief pitchers are capable of working one inning, sitting down for 20 minutes and then going back out to the mound. Today’s relief pitchers are not programmed that way any more than starters are programmed to complete games.
Yes, Maddon is very smart with his bullpen and to an extent he uses his best relievers in the most important situations and he uses some of his relievers for more than three outs. But Maddon still assigns roles for each reliever (Troy Percival will start the 9th with a lead of 3 or less) and he only rarely deviates from that.
Prospectus Today [Baseball Prospectus]
Apr 09
[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Kazmir’s New Arsenal, The Pink Backpack And Winning At Fenway
BJ Upton, JP Howell, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir 2 Comments »
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: Scott Kazmir’s slider. A good Kazmir needs to have confidence to throw his slider. In 2007, he threw it 17% of the time. Last year, that number dropped to 11%. Last night? 20 out of 111 (18.0%)…Scott Kazmir’s fastball. We don’t remember Kazmir’s fastball having so much movement. We have always assumed that Kazmir, as a power-pitcher, only threw a 4-seam fastball (very straight, very fast). But several of those fastballs last night looked like 2-seamers (not as fast, more movement). Is this new to his arsenal?…9-1-2. If the 9-hitter truly is the second leadoff hitter, then the “top” of the Rays order went a combined 9-14, scored 4 times and drove in 2. Quick side note: How great would Aki be if he played 81 games at Fenway? He would be like Wade Boggs, peppering that wall all year and hit .350 with about 200 doubles…The Shrinking Hole In El Gato’s Bat. He struck out (again) in his first at bat and then finally made contact in the second. But it was the home run in the third that’s got us downright giddy. Last year, Pena got off to a slow start because he was pulling everything. Facing a tough lefty, he took Lester deep, to straight away center field. A very good sign indeed…The Mad Australian. Grant Balfour came in with the bases loaded and struck out Jed Lowrie. Then breezed through a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.This adds credence to one commenter’s point that Balfour just isn’t very good in the spring, but knows how to turn it on in April.
THE BAD: 111 pitches. Yes, it was nice to see Scott Kazmir work six innings. We will take it every time. But we don’t want to see too many more starts where he throws more than 110 pitches. 110 is considered by some to be the cutoff for when a start becomes very stressful on a pitcher’s arm. Of course, that varies based on the pitcher and circumstances, but let’s not risk it…JP Howell. He looked like classic JP on the 2 strikeouts, but hit a batter and looked very hittable on the 3 basehits, allowing one run to score, and leaving the bases loaded.
THE TELLING: Dan Wheeler was the designated 8th inning guy last year, but came on in the 7th last night, with JP Howell starting the 8th…Last year, the Rays started the season 0-7 at Fenway Park, not winning a game in Boston until September 9. Looks like that monkey doesn’t even know where the Rays’ back is any longer…The Rays weren’t terrible versus lefties last year (25-24), but it is still nice to blow past a tough one this early in the year. Of course, we think the Rays already proved themselves against Lester the Invincible last October…Willy Aybar will start at DH today.
SUNBURST PLAYER OF THE GAME: Scott Kazmir. Whenever the Rays beat down on the Sox at Fenway, there are going to be several candidates. Evan Longoria had a double and a home run, but he also grounded into two double-plays. Carlos Pena’s home run was huge and he had a great defensive play going over the railing at the Red Sox dugout, but he also struck out for the fourth straight at bat. Jason Bartlett and Aki Iwamura each did their job by getting on base 3 times. But even though it wasn’t vintage Kazmir, it was still better than we had seen in a while. And any pitcher that holds the Red Sox to 1 run in 6 innings for the win, is going to find their name here.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- The Tampa Bay Rays top four minor league affiliates all have their season openers tonight. BJ Upton is expected to play for Charlotte tonight, for the first of three rehab games. He is expected to rejoin the Rays on Monday.
- In case you were wondering who in the bullpen is responsible for carrying the pink backpack filled with candy…Without any rookies, the task has been bestowed upon JP Howell, which apparently goes against the wishes of Troy Percival. And did you know that sushi does not fit in the pink backpack. We are curious as to what sushi JP has been eating. [MLB]
- Pat Burrell flew to Philadelphia Wednesday morning and was on hand for the Phillies’ World Series ring ceremony. [Tampa Tribune]
- Governor Charlie Crist will once again throw out the first pitch at the home opener…When looking for public funding for a new stadium, it is always a good idea to butter up the Governor. [MLB]
- IndyWeek.com previews the 2009 Durham Bulls. [Indy Week]
