Apr 05
Archive for April 5th, 2009
Apr 05
We have had some discussion here recently about projection systems. A recent look at several systems suggests the Rays will win about 90 games this season and finish third in the AL East.
This, and a recent article in the Orange County Register got us wondering…What is the full potential for the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays?
In the PECOTA projections over at Baseball Prospectus they actually provide a range of projections for each player.The highest (best) projection for each player is their “90th percentile.” We decided to take a look at what the 2009 Rays would look like if each player played to the 90th percentile.
Notes on the projections are found after the tables…
Notes on the 90° PECOTA projections
- We used the opening day roster, with Jeff Niemann as the fifth starter and Lance Cormier in the bullpen. We also used BJ Upton in place of Matt Joyce.
- The offense is projected to score 963 runs based on 6,324 plate appearances. The Rays had 6,312 plate appearances in 2008, so we did not scale this number.
- The pitching staff is projected to give up 443 earned runs. Based on how many unearned runs the Rays allowed last year, that number translates to 481 total runs. But this number is based on 1,350.1 innings. Last year the Rays pitched 1,457.2 innings. So the total number of runs allowed was scaled up to 519.
- Based on Pythagorean win expectation, scoring 963 runs and allowing 519 runs would translate to a .756 win percentage.
- Based on a .756 win percentage, the Rays would finish the regular season at 122-40 (and some thought the C.H.A.L.K. projections were optimistic at 113 wins)
- What stands out to us, other than every player having a very good year, is that none of the numbers for individual players seem outlandish to us. We can look at each stat line and envision a season in which that player reaches those numbers. In fact, in a couple of cases, the numbers seem low (BJ Upton, Carl Crawford). This is because the projection systems don’t account for stats from previous seasons that are affected by injuries.
- Last year the Rays finished 97-65, which was 5 games better than their Pythagorean win percentage. Some say this is evidence that the Rays were lucky in 2008. We think it does not account for a team with a great bullpen that wins more close games than an average team. In 2009, the Rays 29-18 record in 1-run games was the best in baseball.
Apr 05
Jason Hammel Traded To Rockies; Niemann Is 5th Starter
Aneury Rodriguez, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann 1 Comment »It’s official, Joe smith of the St. Pete Times is reporting that the Rays have traded Jason Hammel to the Colorado Rockies for double-A prospect Aneury Rodriguez.
Hammel said he has been informed by the Rays he’s been traded to the Rockies. Though he was appreciative the Rays gave him opportunities, Hammel is looking forward to a fresh start in Colorado, where he hopes to be a part of their big-league rotation.
Though there’s been no official announcement as of yet, the Times has confirmed the Rays will get 21-year-old RHP prospect Aneury Rodriguez in return. Rodriguez, the Rockies No. 16 prospect by Baseball America, was scheduled to start the season at Double-A Tulsa, having gone 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA and 139 strikeouts/40 walks in 156 innings last season at advanced Class A Modesto.
Jeff Niemann has also told the Times that he has been informed from the team that he will be the fifth starter.
Hammel traded to Rockies; Niemann fifth starter [The Heater]
Apr 05
A Look Back At The Hour That Almost Brought Jason Bay To The Rays
Jason Bay, Jeff Niemann, Reid Brignac 9 Comments »
At the trade deadline last season, the Rays came precariously close to striking a deal with the Pirates for Jason Bay. In fact, the deal was so close, that one writer reported that the deal was done. We won’t mention which writer, *cough* Bill Chastain *cough*.
In the end, the Rays did not make a deal, and Bay ended up in Boston as part of a three-team deal that also included Manny Ramirez going to the Dodgers.
Today at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Dejan Kovacevic looks back at exactly how the trade came to be. He focuses on the chaotic final seven minutes before the trade deadline, at which point the Rays were no longer involved. But Kovecevic does shed some light on how close the Rays came to striking a deal.
- By July 27, the Rays were one of 5 teams involved in talks.
- On the day of the trade deadline (July 31), the Rays appeared to be the front-runner. Kovacevic notes that “the Pirates’ feeling at times was that they were closer to a single-team trade, notably with the prospect-rich Rays.”
- At 3:40 pm (20 minutes before the deadline), the Pirates had narrowed the field to the Rays and Braves.
- 5 minutes later, the Pirates called the Rays and Braves and asked for specific prospects. In both instances, the Pirates were “summarily rejected.” [Ed. note: At the time, it was believed that the Pirates asked for Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemann, and either one was untouchable or the Rays were unwilling to part with both]
- At that point, the Pirates felt that Bay would not be traded, even discussing the possibility of offering Bay an extension.
- Finally, several calls in the final 7 minutes resurrected the deal with the Dodgers and the Red Sox and the deal was finalized with less than a minute to go before the deadline.
Baseball 2009: Seven minutes that changed the franchise [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette]
Apr 05
Rays Have Deal In Place With Rockies, But Questions Remain
Aneury Rodriguez, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, Lance Cormier No Comments »
[Update 11:35am] Joe Smith says a Rockies scout was in the stands to watch Hammel pitch today and Smith has some quotes from Jason Hammel about the possibility of being traded.
“I haven’t heard anything,” Hammel said. “It’s been pretty rough actually. I’m just trying to not think about it. We’re just taking it in stride…I’ll throw strikes for whatever color,” Hammel said. “Whatever happens, happens…“Its been a pleasure here. I’m not saying I’m gone. But they’ve given me a lot of opportunities. Sometimes it is what it is.”
[11:00am] Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post is reporting that the Rays have accepted the Rockies offer of double-A pitcher Aneury Rodriguez for Jason Hammel. But, they are waiting to see if another team can best the offer.
The Rockies and Rays have agreed on the parameters of a deal that would land Colorado right- handed reliever Jason Hammel, but Tampa Bay is still mulling other offers…The Rockies would send Double-A pitcher Aneury Rodriguez to the Rays, whom Tampa Bay scouted heavily in Tucson last week.
This news raises a couple of questions…
- Is this the Rockies’ deal a ‘final’ offer, or if another team does propose a better package, would the Rockies have a chance to up theirs?
- Are the Rays only looking for better offers for Hammel or are they also waiting to see if a better offer comes in for Jeff Niemann?
While those questions still linger, it does appear that Niemann is the fifth starter and Lance Cormier is the seventh arm in the bullpen unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours.
Rockies tentatively set to get Hammel [Denver Post]
Apr 05
[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Upton At The Top, Aki At The Bottom And Jennings Jump To AA
Akinori Iwamura, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza No Comments »
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
THE GOOD: The Game. Ok, it was just a spring game, but we always gain pleasure from beating Philadelphia in anything…Pat Burrell. The Bat led off so that he could get his one at bat in the first inning and he responded with a home run…Carlos Pena. Pena also homered in the first in his only at bat, a 3-run shot.
THE BAD: Matt Garza. Garza allowed two home runs, but he was primarily working on his changeup and threw that pitch much more than he would normally…Grant Baflour. The Mad Australian struck out 2 in his 1 inning of work, but he also gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and a hit batter.
THE TELLING: Most of the regulars received one plate appearance before being removed from the game…The Rays finished the spring at 15-16-1.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- In case you missed this yesterday in our look back at the spring training questions, Joe Maddon announced that when BJ Upton returns from the DL, he will indeed bat leadoff. Until then, Aki Iwamura will bat leadoff against righties, while Jason Bartlett will lead off against lefties. After Upton’s return, those two will also alternate in the 8th and 9th spot against lefties and righties…Not only will the Rays benefit from having Upton at the top, but we have a very good feeling about Aki no longer hitting leadoff. Sometimes we felt Aki tried to hard to be a prototypical leadoff guy. He did the job well, not great, but his swing may have suffered for it. [The Heater]
- Marc Lancaster has a list of Rays players to keep an eye on in 2009. [Tampa Tribune]
- Marc Topkin looks back on spring training and how different issues and question marks played out. He also says that Jeff Niemann appears to have won the final spot in the rotation based on his “higher upside than Jason Hammel and the potential that he could be used in relief.” Topkin also mentions that BJ Upton will be in the lineup on opening night for the Charlotte Stone Crabs. [St. Pete Times]
- Stacy Long explores why the Rays decided to start Desmond Jennings at double-A this season, despite only 24 games at high-A last season. [Biscuit Crumbs]
- Dennis Maffezzoli takes a look at who will be the new leaders in the clubhouse now that Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske have left. Joe Maddon says that Pat Burrell has what it takes to fill the role. [Sarasota Herald-Tribune]
- Marc Lancaster has a few series from the upcoming season that Raysheads should circle on their calendars. [Tampa Tribune]
- Marc Topkin looks back on the most memorable moments of 2008. [St. Pete Times]
- Joey Johnston has a list of “Did you knows” about various Rays. [Tampa Tribune]
