Archive for January 6th, 2009

Jan 06

[PROFITABILITY] Measuring Return On Investment In Major League Baseball

Other teams envious of Rays payroll, Payroll The Professor 3 Comments »

Recently Drays Bay took a look at how much several of the Rays were worth in 2008 as compared to what those players were actually paid. Using the new “Value in Dollars” feature at Fangraphs, they showed that the Rays received $81.5 million of production from 10 players, for approximately $14.4 million in salary. That equates to a 450% return on investment.

That is pretty good, but it left us wondering exactly how profitable the entire team was, and exactly how profitable the Rays need to be in order to be successful. To do this we need a little more information.

  1. Drays Bay only looked at players acquired by Andrew Friedman and Co. Certainly this is the benchmark for how a front office is measured. But we are now in the fourth off-season for World B. Friedman and this is now their team. While they deserve credit for the players acquired in the last three years, they also deserve credit (or blame) for players they have chosen to keep from the previous administration.
  2. Drays Bay does not include pitchers. At this time, Fangraphs does not have dollar values for pitchers.
  3. We also need some reference in order to know how much “profit” is needed to be successful.

For the last point, we need to keep in mind that it would be very difficult for a team to perform worse than the $43.8 million payroll the Rays began 2008 with. In fact, the Rays have to show a “profit” with such a small payroll. Certainly the nearly 6:1 ratio shown above is great, but that may not have been much more than the Rays need to do to remain competitive, especially in the AL East.

We already know that the Rays were second only to the Marlins in cost per win at $451K. But how did the Rays performance compare to their $43.8 million payroll and how did that compare to the rest of baseball?

Luckily for us, Fangraphs does have the Value Wins and Dollar values for each team. If we compare each of these values to the opening day payrolls of every team, we have the following “profit” rankings (values in millions).

A few notes on the above table…

  • The Rays led MLB in profit and were second only to the Marlins in Return on Investment.
  • When the performance of the entire team is considered, the Rays actually outperformed their payroll by a little more than 3:1.
  • Only one team (Mariners, $36.7MM) performed worse than the Rays’ opening day payroll of $43.8 million.
  • The Reds performance ($43.5MM) was nearly identical to the Rays’ payroll, with Cincinnati winning only 74 games.
  • Not surprising, MLB as a whole overpaid their players by $42.6 million, although the actual number is likely higher as these values only consider players on the opening day payroll.
  • $72.2 million in performance was the minimum needed to be a playoff team.
  • Three teams made the playoffs (Angels, Dodgers, White Sox) that actually performed below their payroll. The Angels number shows just how weak the AL West was and how inflated their 100 win total was.
  • The Yankees show why they will always eventually have to pay back the Devil for buying championships. In an effort to always “get their man” they inevitably give extra years and dollars to players that will be in serious decline towards the end of the deals.
  • We hadn’t realized just how bad the Mariners were in 2008. Wow.

Simply turning a “profit” is not enough for the Rays. In fact, in 2007, the Rays played like a $57.9 million team despite only a $24.1 million opening day payroll. That team produced a $33.8 million “profit” in performance and a 140.2% return on investment, and yet they only won 66 games.

Now let’s take a look at what it took to make the playoffs the last three years (we did not want to go too far back in time as we are not taking into account inflation; values in millions).

Here, the math is very simple. Even if the Rays enter the 2009 season with a payroll in the $60 million range, they will still need to nearly double that value in terms of performance if they want to compete for a playoff spot in the always tough AL East.

Money In The Bank Pt. 3 [Drays Bay]
The ’smart’ choice to win the Series? Tampa [MSNBC]

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Jan 06

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Tampa Bay Rays Confidence Survey

Confidence graph The Professor 7 Comments »

Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.

Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. We will present these same polls every Tuesday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Thursday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time.

Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…


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Jan 06

[PAT THE BAT] What They Are Saying About The Pat Burrell Signing

Pat Burrell The Professor No Comments »

We will be appearing as a guest today at 1:00pm on the Rays Digest podcast to talk about the Pat Burrell acquisition. You can listen live HERE, or download the podcast later. Until then, let’s take a look at what is being written about the Rays’ newest bat…

[Marc Topkin at the St. Pete Times] (with bonus bullets)

  • Burrell will make $7 million in 2009 and $9 million in 2010.
  • The signing will make any further additions to the roster very difficult with the ‘09 payroll in the neighborhood of $60 million. Topkin says it will take creativity to add a player like Rocco Baldelli.
  • Topkin lays out several possible lineups and Joe Maddon says putting the lineup together is “going to be fun”.

[Rob Neyer at ESPN] (with bonus Huzzahs)

What a fantastic move…we may assume he’ll be worth less than $20 million over the next two seasons…How much less? We can’t exactly know, but $16 million for two years seems just about right. Especially considering that he’s actually more valuable as a DH than as a left fielder. And while it would have been easy for the Rays to rest on their considerable laurels and assume that a full season of David Price will give them all the boost they need, it’s a lot smarter to make a real effort to get better, because some of the things that went right in 2008 will go wrong in 2009. Bravos and Huzzahs are definitely in order.

[Her Rays] (with bonus pictures):

Being a Gemini I’m often kind of two-sided, and this is definitely the case with Mr. Burrell. The sharp, business, girl who wears her glasses to look smarter knows this is a good move and a great get by the Rays front office…On the other hand, the flip flop wearing girl who gets by on vibes and gut feelings, is really glad the Rays didn’t go for Giami or Abreu, but has no idea what to think of Pat Burrell. Philly fans got very frustrated with his streakiness. Plus, have you ever seen him run?

[The Philadelphia Inquirer] (with bonus lack of fact checking)

Burrell was the highest-paid Phillie last season, when he earned $14 million. Although the average annual value of his contract is reportedly $6.5 million lower than that figure, he likely will join Rays first baseman Carlos Pena as the highest-paid player on the team. Pena is due to earn $8 million next season [Ed. note: Burrell will make $7MM. That is less than Pena and Carl Crawford who will make $8.25M]

[David Chalk at Bugs and Cranks] (with bonus yelling and cursing)

THANK CHRIST IT’S NOT THAT PIECE OF [DOODOO] HUMAN BEING JASON GIAMBI…Everything after that is [turkey] gravy.

[Baseball Think Factory] (with bonus stolen correspondence)

Once again, the Oracle, in violation of laws both state and federal, has risked life and limb to seize secret [letter written from Andrew Friedman to Ruben Amaro Jr]. The Oracle, disguised cleverly as a man standing next to a mailbox with a crowbar, brings you the real story.

[Keith Law at ESPN] (with bonus rain for our parade)

If you’re looking for a negative here, Burrell is the type of player who does not age well — he has “old man’s skills,” meaning power and patience, but is a poor defender and is a 20 runner on the 20-80 scale. He faded very badly down the stretch last year, hitting .191/.295/.365 in August and September amid rumors that he was playing through a foot injury, although the finalization of this contract indicates that he checked out physically.

[Drays Bay] (with bonus mocking of Rays fans)

Here we mock dumb people…[random comment from St. Pete Times]…Look at this dummy.

[Sabernomics] (with bonus mocking of Rays fans and Pat Burrell)

This leaves me with the final explanation: Burrell was willing to accept less to play in Tampa…Burrell went to college in Florida, so maybe he likes it there. Playing in front of fans who boo you for your big salary even when you are a productive player has to be frustrating. In Tampa, if the team stinks the fans just don’t go to the game. He’s earned a total of $54 million over the course of his playing career, so he’s probably willing to sacrifice some additional wealth for comfort.

[Rays Digest] (with bonus Christmasy joy)

Just like that, the bat that they have been looking for has fallen to them—a late Christmas gift…any baseball fan who counts out the Rays, or thinks that the East will come down to a two-team race, is simply not paying attention.

[The Boston Globe] (with bonus green monster envy)

In the wake of Pat Burrell agreeing to a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, here is something to consider: Tampa has shored up its two weakest spots in the lineup since the end of the 2008 season, when the Rays advanced to the World Series…The point? Tampa is getting even better.

[Marc Lancaster at the Tampa Tribune] (with bonus southpaw analysis)

As Friedman said, Burrell’s presence alone isn’t going to reverse the Rays’ fortunes against lefties, but the trickle-down effect should be a positive one. The hitter himself agreed.

[Newsday] (with bonus bizarre descriptors)

The positives: It sounds like Burrell’s personality will fit in well with Tampa Bay’s tight [Ed. note: tight?] group. One Phillies official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described Burrell as a “great teammate” who isn’t afraid to call out another player when the situation merits it.

[Gary Shelton at the St. Pete Times] (with bonus non-numbers analysis)

You know how you judge a player? In part, by how his teammates feel about him. And the Phillies loved Burrell…He was Pat the Bat, after all. Once, his teammates made up a shirt with a photo of Burrell lifting weights on the front with the slogan: Pat Burrell: Man or Machine…If you wonder why, perhaps you should consider Burrell’s answer Monday when he was asked which part of his game he took the most pride in…”It’s an attitude that winning comes first,” Burrell said. “All the other stuff will come. There is a lot of outside-the-game stuff that goes on in baseball. If the emphasis stays on what happens on the field and on taking care of your teammates, all the other problems tend to solve themselves.”

[The Infield Chatter] (with bonus green)

Aside from possibly finding one more reliever to round out their bullpen, the Rays’ offseason shopping spree is complete. And to think, it cost them less than $20 million dollars – a mere $425 million less than the Yankees. Yet – call us crazy – the two teams will likely be separated by mere inches in 2009.

[Real GM] (with bonus fuzzy math)

Signing a free market player to a contract that pays just $1.5 million annually more than he is probably worth represents a savvy signing [Ed. note: paying more than a player is worth is "savvy"?] from Andrew Friedman and is a flawless example of how the Rays will continue to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox with their current core.

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