Archive for December 11th, 2008

[EDWIN JACKSON] What They Are Saying About The Edwin Jackson-Matt Joyce Trade

Andrew Friedman, Detroit Tigers, Edwin Jackson, Matt Joyce 17 Comments »

Last night the Rays traded Edwin Jackson to the Tigers for Matt Joyce. We have long said that Jackson needed to be moved and we like the addition of Joyce. But we have to admit, given the demand for young, cheap starting pitchers, we were a little surprised the Rays did not receive more in return.

Although we will never know exactly how the process played out, one thing that caught our attention is the lack of bidding by other teams. This is a direct result of the secretive nature of the Rays front office. Other teams leak information on a regular basis. One reason is to make it known that certain players are available and hope to encourage more teams to get involved in the bidding. The more teams involved, the higher the price. This is fundamentally different than the Rays approach.

Some teams encourage other GMs to come to them, while some teams are more proactive and approach other teams. The Rays appear to be more comfortable approaching other teams. This is not necessarily a bad thing. While keeping negotiations quiet, the Rays keep other teams from becoming involved in the player they covet.

In the end the Rays are able to get the player they want, but the overall package may be less.

Let’s take a look at what is being said about the trade in the blogosphere…

Take 75 North feels this this is a terrible deal for the Tigers.

I do not see how this isn’t a terrible deal for the Tigers. On the Tigers’ end, they’re shipping out Matt Joyce. He’s, by nearly every account, an excellent outfielder…He’s also a power-hitting left-handed bat, which the Tigers claim to see as a valuable skillset for the team. Finally, he’s young and cheap…Losing Joyce is only part of what has me so upset about this trade, though. The second part is the Tigers are essentially choosing Gary Sheffield over him…So now the Tigers have three starters of questionable value in [Nate] Robertson, [Dontrelle] Willis and Jackson. Acquiring Jackson will probably allow them to move one of the others, but I see no reason to believe that will be a step forward…I think we’re going to regret this trade almost immediately.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog does not see a benefit to the Tigers.

I’m having a hard time even writing about the deal…Joyce might flame out, but Jackson has yet to even burn…I don’t know how Jackson fits in, whether he will be a starter or reliever. Oh yeah, and he’s eligible for arbitration. Good luck Rick Knapp. I don’t get this one at all.

The Rays Party would have preferred a right-handed bat, but like Joyce and and the flexibility he provides.

The concern is why the Rays got another left-handed hitter instead of a right-hander that can hit against lefties, which was a weak spot last year. But the Rays see his potential and like they have control of him for six years. He also has options and can be sent down if the Rays feel he needs more time in the minors.

Bless You Boys would have rather seen Joyce traded for a closer.

This doesn’t exactly bring clarity to a trade I’m still conflicted over, however. Joyce was too valuable to trade for a badly needed closer, yet dealing him for a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher (which I concede that the Tigers might need, as well) seemed preferable? Am I missing something here?

Tigers Homeplate sees this as a good deal for the Tigers and Joyce.

The good thing is that Jackson is only 25 years old and has pitched the last couple of seasons in the major leagues so he will being a little bit of experience with him…Joyce should get a crack at the starting lineup down in Tampa so I think it is a good trade for him as he would have been a fourth outfielder at best in the Tigers lineup.

Drays Bay says Joyce is an upgrade over Gabe Gross.

Gross is projected at 1.4 through 600 PAs and 3 runs in the field. That’s 1.9 WAR total.

1.5 + (FLD in wins form) + (BAT in wins form) = WAR

For instance: (1.5+0.7+0.3) = 2.5

Detroit Tigers Thoughts says Andrew Friedman took Dave Dombrowski “to the cleaners.”

This only works out if Jackson finds something and becomes a better pitcher. He’s simply not a good pitcher right now, and that will need to work….I don’t see how this trade makes sense. In doing this, Dombrowski is essentially betting on Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield playing 150 games apiece this year. I don’t like those odds.

The Spot Starters takes a closer look at Jackson’s 2008 campaign noting that he ranked near the bottom of the AL in a number of statistical categories.

Edwin Jackson seems to be the classic example of a guy who had a better record than he deserved in 2008. I hate to say that, I absolutely hate it…I don’t think Jackson is a lost cause. Let’s give the guy a shot. Even though he can be up-and-dow, he and his 95 mph+ heater could really do some damage against the opposition in 2009.

The Grand National Championships says Joyce could be Mark Kotsay and has a higher ceiling than Jackson.

Matt Joyce has a little bit of the sleeper to his skills. He played very well in his first half-season in Detroit. He will stike out about 120 times in a season. But his offensive game is very nice. 35 doubles, 25 homers, a passable eye with a slugging percentage that can threaten .500 is magical and rad…And he can play center field for if and when the Rays tire of B.J. Upton’s saucy antics. Could he turn into Mark Kotsay? It’s possible. But Matt Joyce’s floor is a lot higher than Mr. Jackson’s.

Rays from across the pond is not happy to lose Jackson but they understand it.

Obviously losing Jackson is a bit of a shame. He had his best year ever this season, and finally looked as though he was working through his inconsistancy issues. I think that Detroit have picked up a good player there. Still, with the pitching depth that the Rays have, any trade was always likely to involve either him or Andy Sonnanstine. And while Jackson is probably the more talented, I think I’d rather lose him that Sonny – as I’ve said many times this year, Sonny just has a great knack for winning.

Tiger Tales is not sold on the deal.

It was not a surprise to see Joyce traded since Jim Leyland commented about his laid back approach during the summer. I also understand that Leyland likes hard throwing (Jackson has a mid 90s fast ball) pitchers with high upsides. It could turn out to be a good deal but right now I’m not a fan of the trade.

The Wayne Fontes Experience says Jackson should fit right in.

My gut reaction wasn’t a good one. Mainly due to the fact Jackson can’t throw strikes. He’s a base on balls machine. Hey! That means Jackson should fit right in with the rest of the Tigers’ staff!…Rick Knapp is going to have his hands full straightening out ANOTHER Tigers pitcher who thinks the strike zone is just a suggestion…I’ll have to sleep on this trade, maybe I’ll feel more enthused about acquiring Jackson with a little more time. But right now, I’m still calling this off season “a small ball of MEH”

[HOT STOVE] Tampa Bay Rays Tidbits And Rumor Updates

Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Ken Griffey Jr, Milton Bradley, Raul Ibanez, Rocco Baldelli No Comments »

Let’s use this post for minor updates on previous rumors we have heard from the winter meetings and other minor tidbits. Unless something new or substantial comes along, we will continue to update this post the rest of the day.

[Update: 1:46pm] Andrew Friedman says the Rays have not made any formal offers to any free agents but have discussed parameters.

[Update: 1:21pm] Jayson Stark is reporting that the Angels have begun negotiating with Raul Ibanez as he is their backup plan should Mark Teixeira sign elsewhere…Just spit-ballin’ here, but we have to think that Ibanez is low on the Rays’ wish list.

[Update: 12:16pm] About 13 picks have gone by in the Rule 5 draft and nobody has taken Eddie Morlan. Is it possible nobody think Morlan can be hidden in a major league bullpen?

[Update: 12:00pm] Buster Olney chimes in on the Rays quest for a power hitter, noting that the situation is very good for the Rays with 8 top-level free agents and only 6 teams that appear to be in the market for a corner outfielder/DH type. He also notes that the free agents may find the Rays a very attractive one-year option. The Rays speedy lineup and solid bats could mean a solid season for one of the free agents as they gear up for another free agent run after the ’09 season when the market may be more favorable…Another benefit to the Rays signing one of these free agents to a one-year deal on the cheap is the secondary benefit of the two draft picks the Rays would receive when the player leaves next season.

[Update: 11:33am] MLB Trade Rumors has a few links regarding Rocco Baldelli. The Red Sox may be backing off of Baldelli and the Reds may be interested. Rocco’s agent initiated talks with the Reds, which seems strange as Rocco would seem to prefer an AL team where he can DH. But later, Joe McDonald reported on a situation at the roulette table in which Dusty Baker and Co. were betting “on No. 5 for Rocco Baldelli.” Seriously.

[Update: 11:28am] Mark Feinsand of the Daily News is saying the White Sox are the leading contender to land the services of Bobby Abreu, noting that the Rays “won’t offer the kind of money he’s looking for.”

[From The Hangover] Two writers are reporting that Milton Bradley has become the Cubs top target to play right field with Raul Ibanez possibly as a fall-back plan. The Rays will likely wait out the negotiations and hope that Bradley and the Cubs fail to reach a deal. If that happens, the Rays may be next in line for Bradley despite the acquisition of Matt Joyce. With the Rays, Bradley can spend a considerable amount of time at DH…Right now it looks as if the Rays top two targets, Bradley and Jason Giambi are both likely heading elsewhere. Would the Rays prefer Ibanez or Bobby Abreu at $8-10 million (and a first round draft pick in the case of Ibanez) over Ken Griffey at $3-4 million?

[RULE 5 DRAFT] Rule 5 Draft: Eddie Morlan Out, Derek Rodriguez In

Derek Rodriguez, Eddie Morlan 2 Comments »

Eddie Morlan was taken by the Brewers with the 16th pick of today’s Rule 5 Draft. The Rays were the last team to make a selection in the first round, taking Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox with the 19th pick. Both players must stay on the major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original franchise.

Rodriguez, a right-handed relief pitcher, will be 26 in May. In 2008, he was 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 49 appearances, split between double-A and triple-A. He struck out 10 batters per 9 innings and a decent 2.7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio. He was a 14th round selection by the White Sox in the 2005 draft.

The Rays did not make a selection, or lose any players, in the triple-A phase of the draft.

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Index Confidence Graph

Confidence graph No Comments »

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

  • The most common response for “Confidence in 2009 Rays” was 9 with 41.3%.
  • The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 10 with 41.9%.

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Look At What The Edwin Jackson Trade Means For The Rays

Andrew Friedman, Carl Crawford, Eddie Morlan, Edwin Jackson, Jason Giambi, Joe Maddon, Ken Griffey Jr, Matt Joyce, Milton Bradley, Raul Ibanez, Troy Percival 7 Comments »

Last night the Rays acquired outfielder Matt Joyce from the Detroit Tigers for Edwin Jackson.

What this trade means for the rotation…
Since the end of the World Series it seemed obvious that the Rays were going to trade either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson. To most, Jackson seemed to be the logical choice as his peripheral numbers suggested the 14 wins in 2008 were a bit overrated. And despite a possible move to the bullpen he would have been a very expensive middle reliever.

With Jackson out of the picture, Sonny is a lock for the 4th spot in the rotation. That opens a spot that will eventually be filled by David Price. But will King David fill it in when the team breaks camp? Andrew Friedman made it clear earlier in the week that there is no guarantee Price is in the rotation to start the season. With only 5 starts above double-A, it would not surprise us to see Price in Durham for 5-6 starts to start the season. That means Jeff Niemann, Mitch Talbot and Jason Hammel will battle for the final spot in Spring Training. Since Talbot still has a minor league option, look for Niemann to get the nod as the Rays try to showcase him for other teams and then trade him to the first contender that loses a starting pitcher to injury.

What this means for the lineup…
Joyce fits in immediately at the 6-spot in the lineup as the most-days right fielder for the next six years. If the Rays are able to sign a player like Jason Giambi or Milton Bradley, Joyce falls to #7 with Evan Longoria at #6 to keep the R-L-R-L lineup. But that is another story for another day. In other words, the Rays could do a lot worse than Joyce at 6/7. And more importantly, it means the Rays don’t have to go through this mess again next year.

What this means for the roster
We will touch on this a bit more later, but this move probably seals the door on Jonny Gomes’ career with the Rays. Already a candidate to be non-tendered on Friday night, that now seems like a foregone conclusion. 2009 will be much less Johnny-terrific. Now the question becomes, do the Rays have room for Gabe Gross? If they tender a contract to Gross, Fernando Perez is almost certainly in Durham in 2009.

What this tells us about the Rays’ front office…
The Rays have the quietest front office in baseball. Even though the Rays were talking with the Tigers for three days, we never heard a peep. Is that by design? Maybe. Most of the Rays trades seem to come from out of left field (so to speak). Did we hear anything before the Gross trade or the Willy Aybar trade or the Chad Bradford trade?

Do the Rays make it a point to keep everything under wraps as tightly as possible? Or is the front office still young enough, and the Rays still a relatively new player, that the national media has yet to establish connections within the front office?

One thing that is becoming very clear. No matter who we, as fans, think the Rays are targeting, most of the time they will get somebody we were not even thinking about. We don’t know about the rest of you, but we love it.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA

  • Marc Lancaster says the Rays and Tigers have been talking since day one of the winter meetings and that at one point they were working on a three-team deal with the Mariners in which JJ Putz would have gone to Detroit. That seemed to be falling through so the Tigers and Rays decided to keep things simple and make it one-for-one. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Two writers are reporting that Milton Bradley has become the Cubs top target to play right field with Raul Ibanez possibly as a fall-back plan. The Rays will likely wait out the negotiations and hope that Bradley and the Cubs fail to reach a deal. If that happens, the Rays may be next in line for Bradley despite the acquisition of Matt Joyce. With the Rays, Bradley can spend a considerable amount of time at DH…Right now it looks as if the Rays top two targets, Bradley and Jason Giambi are both likely heading elsewhere. Would the Rays prefer Ibanez or Bobby Abreu at $8-10 million (and a first round draft pick in the case of Ibanez) over Ken Griffey at $3-4 million? [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Andrew Friedman indicated that the Rays are more likely to acquire a relief pitcher via trade, noting that the Rays need the flexibility of being able to send the acquisition to the minors. Why is this important? Because it took Troy Percival two months to decide he needed back surgery and the Rays are not sure if he will be available to open the season. [Rays Report]
  • In the same report, Andrew Friedman said he would not be surprised if the Rays lose as many as three players in today’s Rule 5 draft. Which reminds us. Did you guys bid farewell to Eddie Morlan yet? You only have a couple of hours left to do so. [Rays Report]
  • Joe Maddon says he is not concerned about members of the Rays participating in the World Baseball Classic. Marc Topkin lists several players that could be chosen. [The Heater]
  • Joe Maddon guesses Team USA will take Carl Crawford and a starting pitcher from the Rays roster. Of course that is only the American players. [Tampa Tribune]
  • A recent study showed the Tampa Bay Rays were directly responsible for over $100 million in direct spending by tourists in 2008. The study also showed that more than half of the Rays’ 2008 attendance (1.8 million) came from outside Piniellas County. [Tampa Bay Business Journal]
  • Baseball America has the complete list of minor leaguers eligible for today’s Rule 5 draft including 43 members of the Rays’ organization. [Baseball America]

[EDWIN JACKSON] Edwin Jackson To Tigers Now Done Deal

Andy Sonnanstine, Bob Gibson, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, Matt Joyce, Mitch Talbot 3 Comments »

[Update: 11:58pm] Marc Topkin confirms.

[11:30pm] Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free-Press is now reporting that the deal reported earlier, in which the Rays would send Edwin Jackson to the Tigers for Matt Joyce has now been finalized.

Joyce, 24, is a left-handed hitting outfielder that hit .252/.339/.492 with 12 home runs in 92 games for the Tigers in 2008. He also hit .270/.352/.550 with 13 home runs in 56 games at triple-A.

Moving Jackson assures that Andy Sonnanstine will be in the rotation next season and clears a spot for David Price, although Jeff Niemann, Mitch Talbot and Jason Hammel could also get a shot in April if Price is deemed not ready.

And with that, the Edwin Jackson era in Tampa Bay has ended. Some people like to play video games. Some people like to read books. Edwin Jackson liked to impersonate Bob Gibson for four innings and then the Hindenburg for one.

Tigers trade for Tampa Bay pitcher Edwin Jackson [Detroit Free-Press]