Archive for December 5th, 2008

Dec 05

[LOOKIN' FOR GLOVE] Possible Explanantion For Bartlett’s Defensive Decline In 2008

Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett is looking for glove, Minnesota Twins Cork Gaines 21 Comments »

Earlier today Drays Bay compared Jason Bartlett’s 2008 defensive metrics to previous years and wondered why he was “not as good as perceived” prior to the season.

Essentially every metric that had a crush on Bartlett prior to 2008 gave him the cold shoulder. That’s bad, namely because those same metrics gave us hope that Bartlett was a defensive wizard, and while he looked good, he apparently was not as good as perceived. The problem for us, and the Rays, is deciding whether this is indicative of a true talent change or simply an anomaly.

Other than the obvious explanations, such as his shoulder injury in April and the knee injury late in the season, there is another simple explanation for the statistical drop-off in Bartlett’s defense.

Evan Longoria.

Below you will see a graph representing Bartlett’s 2007 “Probabilistic Model of Range” as presented by Baseball Musings.


A couple of quick notes on the graph…

  • The far left portion of the graph represents the third base line, while the far right represents the first base line. “2B” represents the second base bag.
  • The peak of the graph in essence represents where Bartlett would usually be positioned. So anything to the left of the peak represents groundballs that Bartlett would have to move to his right (towards third base) to field. While anything to the right of the peak represents groundballs that Bartlett would have to move towards the second base bag to field.

As we can see, Bartlett fielded more groundballs in 2007 than would be predicted. However, Bartlett was much better moving towards third base (left of the peak on the graph). Bartlett’s actual outs were much higher than predicted on balls hit right at him and on groundballs to his right (towards third base). On groundballs hit to his left (towards second base) Bartlett was only average.

This is where Longoria comes in. Baseball Musings does not have Bartlett’s graph for 2008 yet, but we can compare the Probabilistic Model of Range for Bartlett’s third basemen in 2007 and 2008.

In 2007, Twins third basemen ranked 25th in baseball, making 13 fewer outs than predicted. On the other hand, in 2008, Longoria ranked 3rd in the majors in Probabilistic Model of Range for third basemen, making 17 more outs than expected. That is a difference of 30 outs by third basemen from 2007 to 2008.

This is important because a third baseman is closer to the batter and essentially has “dibs” on balls hit in the hole between the shortstop and third baseman. A third baseman with excellent range, like Longoria, means fewer balls are getting to the shortstop. And it is those groundballs that Bartlett feasted on in 2007.

A healthy Bartlett will go a long way towards reestablishing him as one of the premiere defensive shortstops in baseball (statistically), but as long as Longoria is manning the hot corner, Bartlett no longer has to be Superman.

On Bartlett’s Defense [Drays Bay]
Probabilistic Model of Range, Third Basemen, 2007 [Baseball Musings]
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Third Basemen [Baseball Musings]

Dec 05

[THE HANGOVER] Silent Gerry Appears To Be Staying Put

Andrew Friedman, Chad Bradford, Friedude and Silent Gerry, Gerry Hunsicker, Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, Peter Gammons, Rocco Baldelli Cork Gaines No Comments »

Back in September we heard rumblings that the Rangers might be interested in Gerry Hunsicker to be their new general manager. The feeling was that if the Rangers decided to make a change, team president Nolan Ryan, would look to Hunsicker, with whom he has worked in the past with the Astros. It appears that Ryan has opted to stick with the incumbent GM, Jon Daniels, as any move would have been made by now.

Hunsicker was also rumored to be on the short list for the GM position of the Mariners and the Phillies. The M’s hired Jack Zduriencik, while the Phillies went with Ruben Amaro Jr. as their new GM.

Hunsicker, who is “Teller” to Andrew Friedman’s “Penn” (or “Silent Bob” to Friedman’s “Jay” for the younger crowd), is the quiet partner, but by all accounts just as responsible for the product seen on the FieldTurf. It is with great relief knowing that the front office nucleus will remain intact for at least one more season.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times has a Q&A with Andrew Friedman that goes into a little more detail than the tidbits we discussed yesterday afternoon. [St. Pete Times]
  • Can we all calm down a little about the recent report from Peter Gammons that suggests teams have only recently discovered more telling defensive statistics. Will Carroll says teams have been looking at defensive stats and studies for years and that a lot of the work the teams do “simply blows away things you’d call the state of the art in sabermetrics.”…We are not sure why some think that most front offices are filled with old men that do nothing but read scouting reports from people in the field. If a blogger sitting in his mom’s basement can measure how many runs and wins a poor defensive player costs a team, we are pretty sure the people running a $500 million organization can figure it out also. So no, it is not such a “novel idea.” [Baseball Prospectus]
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Mets are not interested in trading for Chad Bradford, saying his $3.5 million salary is too much for them. Sherman also notes that “at least a half-dozen teams” have shown interest in Rocco Baldelli. We know of four, including the Rays, Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees. [New York Post]
  • The Rays have set in motion plans to open the first MLB operated baseball academy in Brazil. The goal appears to be to increase the popularity of baseball in Brazil and attract athletes that might normally opt for other sports such as soccer or volleyball. [MLB]
  • Rays Prospects has an update on winter league stats for current and former Rays farmhands (and Willy Aybar). [Rays Prospects]