If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do based on what we have learned. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the seventh day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, a SEVEN-year extension for BJ Upton…

Two days ago we hoped the Rays would give Matt Garza a five-year extension. While they are being generous, they might as well go ahead secure BJ Upton for the next seven seasons (including options).

Upton is eligible for free agency following the 2012 season, so a seven-year deal would buy out his first three years of free agency. That may seem like a lot, but we can dream can’t we?

Last season, Upton was worth 4.3 wins with only one arm. So if the Rays love their fans, they will sign Upton long-term, before he grows a cape, tattoos an “S” to his chest and starts announcing his presence with authority.

And if Upton agrees to a deal, we promise to stop calling him Melvin…well, we promise to stop doing it so often.

On the seventh day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is a SEVEN-year extension for BJ Upton and…
SIX months with at least 15 wins [Day 6]
FIVE-year extension for Matt Garza [Day 5]
FOUR pitchers with 15 wins [Day 4]
THREE Gold Glove awards [Day 3]
TWO months in triple-A for David Price [Day 2]
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

Not the best video in the world, but if you fast-forward to the 2:22 mark, you will see Willy Aybar making a nice grab while playing third base for Licey in the Dominican Winter League. Not sure how updated these numbers are, but Aybar was hitting .286-0-9 with a .712 OPS in 15 games for Licey.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• JP Howell was the 118th player to appear in both the College World Series and the Major League World Series. [bNet]
• Joe Maddon is back in his hometown of Hazleton, PA to visit family and help raise funds to renovate the auditorium of his former high school. [Times-Leader]
• Rays Party of America shows that the Rays’ bullpen had the second slowest average velocity in baseball. [Rays Party of America]
• The Rays made the Joe Nelson signing official yesterday. [The Heater]
• The Rays resigned Jon Weber to a minor league deal. Weber is nice to have around considering he has been on a playoff team eight straight seasons and in six of those seasons his team won a championship. The Rays also signed three other minor leaguers including Ray Olmedo, a shortstop who has played parts of five big league seasons with the Reds and Jays. He will likely serve as the Rays glass case middle infielder. You know. Break only in case of emergency. Ray Sadler is an outfielder, who played 3 games with the Pirates in 2005 and spent last year at double-A and triple-A in the Astros’ organization hitting 25 home runs in 126 games. Finally there is Doug Salinas, a right-handed pitcher. Salinas posted a 5.53 ERA in low-A last year in the Mariners’ organization. That was actually good, considering it was 5.91 the year before in the same league. Another 5 years or so, and he might be ready for double-A. [Baseball America]
• Rob Quinn of Examiner.com has some New Year’s resolutions for the Rays. [Examiner.com]
• Rays Prospects takes a look at how some Rays performed in the lower-level Venezuelan Winter League. Rays prospects in this league come from the Rays’ Venezuelan Summer League team, the Princeton Rays and recent international signings. [Rays Prospects]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do based on what we have learned. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the sixth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, SIX months with at least 15 wins…

The Rays 2008 record by month:

April: 14-12
May: 19-10
June: 16-10
July: 13-12
August: 21-7
September: 13-14

The good news is that the Rays were fairly consistent over the first five months. Wait. We take that back. The good news is that those numbers add up to 97-65. But on their way to the AL East crown, the Rays posted a winning record in each month prior to their September swoon in which they had to fight off the Red Sox.

Despite the rough stretches in July and September, the Rays were carried by two hot streaks in May and August. Most teams would be happy with one month of 19 wins. The Rays had two.

Now let’s imagine a scenario in which the Rays could have won just one more game in April and two more games in both July and September. That is five wins over the course of three months, or about one extra win every three weeks. One game in which Dan Wheeler holds a lead. One game in which Gabe Gross comes through in the 4th inning with a runner on second.

15 wins each month guarantees the Rays 90 wins in a season. 15 wins means the Rays only need one 20-win month to reach 95 wins. In every season since 2002, 95 wins has been good enough for at least the Wild Card spot.

If the Rays are going to contend again in 2009 in the toughest division in baseball, they need to play at a consistent level over six months and hope for at least one hot stretch.

On the sixth day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is SIX months with at least 15 wins and…
FIVE-year extension for Matt Garza [Day 5]
FOUR pitchers with 15 wins [Day 4]
THREE Gold Glove awards [Day 3]
TWO months in triple-A for David Price [Day 2]
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

Happy Birthday to Grant Balfour, who is 31 years old today. We are not sure what that is in Australian years since toilets flush backwards down under*. He shares a birthday with arguably the greatest pitcher to ever live, Sandy Koufax, 73, who went 27-9 with a 190 ERA+ in his last season, a year in which he pitched with an arthritic arm.

Unfortunately The Mad Australian also shares a birthday with one of the biggest scumbags in baseball history, AJ Pierzynski, who has now made 32 trips around the sun despite being a jackass. And still the only player that made us go “Zapruder” here at RI.

*actually not true

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Andrew Friedman says talks with free agents have picked up in the past week but that nothing is close to being finalized. [The Heater]

Executive vice president Andrew Friedman said Monday that talks with several free agents have gotten “more pointed” in the past week, but nothing is “imminent” as they continue to assess their options from a field that includes Jason Giambi, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley ( rumored to be headed to the Cubs), Adam Dunn and Garret Anderson, and could include Ken Griffey and Moises Alou.

“I still think we’re in good position to end up with an impact bat,” Friedman said. “We’ll continue to monitor the market and figure out the optimal time to make a deal from our standpoint and the player’s. ”

• In the same piece, Marc Topkin answers the call and let’s us know that the Joe Nelson signing is indeed still waiting for completion of his physical, which should happen today. [The Heater]
• The Rays are looking at seven sites, all in Pinellas County, for a new ballpark. It will still be several months before anything is decided. [St. Pete Times]
• Drays Bay takes a look at how Andrew Friedman’s acquisitions paid off in 2006. [Drays Bay]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the fifth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, a FIVE-year extension for Matt Garza…

After 52 big league starts, the Rays gave James Shields a 4-year deal with three option-years that could potentially buy out Shields’ first two years of free agency. The deal is potentially worth $39.25 million.

Matt Garza now has 54 starts under his belt and in 2008 showed why he was the top prospect in the Twins organization. With Shields and Scott Kazmir already signed through at least their first free agency season, Garza is the next pitcher that the Rays will target for a long-term deal.

Blessed with what many consider the best stuff on the staff, Garza will be arbitration-eligible following the 2009 season. If the Rays can reach an agreement with Garza on a long-term extension this off-season, it will be for at least 5 years (including options). A five-year deal would buy out Garza’s first year of free agency.

Shields’ deal averages $5.6 million over the life of the deal if all options are exercised. As a super-two following the 2009 season, Garza is a little ahead of where Shields was in terms of service time. On the other hand, Garza does not have the same durable appearance.

Let’s say five years, plus a team option for 2014, which is one year less than Shields’ deal, with an average annual salary of $6 million ($36MM total). Mr. Garza? Mr. Friedman? Good. Do it.

We are only two years removed from a rotation that we often referred to as “Kazmir, Hendrickson and pray for a power outage at the Trop.” Now the Rays may have an opening day rotation in 2009 that includes three first-round draft picks, James Shields and a Volvo (Sonnanstine is safe and dependable).

If the Rays want to remain competitive in the AL East, long-term deals for their young pitchers are a must. Kazmir and Shields have been taken care of. It is Garza’s turn.

On the fifth day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is a FIVE-year extension for Matt Garza, and…
FOUR pitchers with 15 wins [Day 4]
THREE Gold Glove awards [Day 3]
TWO months in triple-A for David Price [Day 2]
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

We are still waiting on an official announcement from the Rays that they have signed reliever Joe Nelson. Nelson announced on December 24 that he had agreed to a one-year, $1.3 million contract with the Rays. As per most deals, the contract requires the player to pass a physical and the holidays may be holding up that part of the process.

Rays agree to terms with reliever Joe Nelson [The Heater]

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Ben Zobrist’s wife, Julianna Zobrist, has released her new album, “The Tree.” Ben and Julianna are also expecting their first child in January [Ed note: you can find pre-pregnancy photos of Julianna HERE] [Iowa City Press-Citizen]
• Buster Olney says the Rays and A’s are in a bidding war of sorts over the remaining DH/corner outfielders. Olney says both teams are willing to spend money but neither wants to go first, preferring to wait until the other team is out of the market, which in turn could drive the price down on the remaining players. [ESPN]
• We already talked about how defense is the Rays’ “Moneyball”. Well, Bleeding Blue and Teal is jealous and wants the Mariners to duplicate. [Bleeding Blue and Teal]
• We have been trying to temper people’s emotions on Troy Percival, noting that he was effective when healthy in 2008. Now Drays Bay backs that up with more numbers…Of course, staying healthy is something else indeed. [Drays Bay]
• One team that was said to be interested in signing Rocco Baldelli, the Reds, have signed Willy Taveras to play center field. However, they are supposedly still looking into the medical condition of Baldelli. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• The Rays were included as part of the New York Times’ “2008 Year in Review.” [New York Times]
• Joe Maddon was voted the top story of 2008 by his hometown paper. [Hazleton Standard-Speaker]
• Bud Selig points to the 2008 success of the Rays as the culmination of 9 years of efforts to bring competitive balance to baseball. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Joe Smith reports on how much the Rays’ overseas scouting has grown, with over 70 international free agents signed in the last three years. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rays Party of America has updated their 25-man roster projection…With Gabe Gross and Matt Joyce offering a similar skillset, we don’t see them both on the roster. [The Rays Party of America]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the fourth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, FOUR pitchers with at least 15 wins…

In 2008, the Rays won 97 games despite not having a single pitcher win 15 games. This was due in large part to the dominance of the bullpen which led to 45 comeback wins last season, behind only the Yankees (49) and Tigers (46) in the American League, and a league-high 31 wins from the relief pitchers.

Of the seven teams in the AL that finished 2008 with a winning record, the Rays’ 66 wins by starting pitchers (68.0%) was a better rate than only the Yankees (66.3%). The remaining five teams ranged from 72.7% (Twins) to 82.6% (Jays).

2008 RAYS WERE LED BY THEIR BULLPEN: The bullpen was a big reason for the Rays’ worst-to-first performance in 2008. But it may be too much to expect a repeat in 2009. Last season, the Rays’ relievers were second in the AL in ERA (3.45) and led the league in batting average against (.218). If the bullpen does regress to something closer to league average, the offense and the starting pitchers will have to pick up the slack if the Rays want to contend again in 2009.

OFFENSE NEEDS TO SCORE MORE RUNS EARLY: If the Rays are going to get more wins from their starting pitchers, it means an offense that scores more runs earlier in the game. In 2008, the Rays only scored 71 runs in the first inning and 79 in the second. Those were by far the two lowest totals in the innings 1-8 (the Rays only batted 116 times in the 9th inning). On the other hand, the Rays two highest run totals by inning were the 5th (98) which is often when the top of the order is getting a third crack at a starting pitcher, and the 8th inning (96).

If the Rays can add an impact bat to the lineup through free agency, and get healthy seasons from BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, the Rays should be able to score early and often in 2009. If the Rays can score more runs next season, strong performances by the starting pitchers will be better rewarded with more leads being handed to the bullpen.

STARTERS NEED TO WORK DEEPER: Of course, the starting pitchers can help themselves with a few more “7+2′s”. That is a starting pitcher working 7 innings, and handing a lead to the bullpen in the 8th inning. In 2008, starting pitchers only worked at least 7 innings in 53 starts. It is a heck of a lot easier for a bullpen to record 6 outs than 9, or even 12. In 2008, the bullpen came through, but that may not happen again next season.

If the Rays want to make a run at the playoffs again in 2009, they will need more production from the offense and longer outings from the starting pitchers. If they can, we will likely see four pitchers with at least 15 wins. If that happens, the Rays will only need 10 wins out of the 5th spot to reach 70 wins from starting pitchers which is in-line with what other playoff teams did in 2008.

On the fourth day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is FOUR pitchers with 15 wins, and…
THREE Gold Glove awards [Day 3]
TWO months in triple-A for David Price [Day 2]
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the third day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, THREE Gold Glove Awards…

In 2008 Carlos Pena became the first player in franchise history to win a Gold Glove award. With a team that is now on baseball’s front burner and no fewer than seven players that are at, or near the top of defensive players at their position, we want those abilities to be recognized and for three Rays to win Gold Gloves in 2009.

DEFENSE IS THE RAYS’ “MONEYBALL”: Since the book “Moneyball” was released in 2003, the term “Moneyball player” has evolved to mean something different than originally intended. Today, the casual baseball fan refers to a “Moneyball player” as one with a high on-base percentage. The true meaning is something different.

At the time “Moneyball” was written, Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane had identified players that were undervalued by other teams. It just so happened that the metric used at the time was players with high OBPs. Fast-forward six years and everybody recognizes the importance of players that get on base and it is much harder to find a bargain in that market.

Still, the concept behind “Moneyball” is as strong as ever, and it is something Stuart Sternberg and Co. thrived at long before they took over the front office of the Tampa Bay Rays: Identify something that is undervalued by others. In this case, the Rays “Moneyball” trait is defense. The Rays recognized early on that a good defensive player can save runs in the same manner that a good offensive player can produce them.

And in this case, defense may be a better “Moneyball” statistic than even OBP since defense is less susceptible to small sample sizes. Failure is the norm for a hitter. A player with a great on-base percentage still “fails” at least 60% of the time and that includes a lot of variance over short stretches. On the other hand a good defensive player is much less likely to deviate from their norm over a short stretch.

THE RAYS TARGET GOOD DEFENDERS FOR THE ROSTER: A quick look at all the position players on the 25-man roster that were acquired since Sternberg and Co. took over, shows that in almost every case, the player is a plus-defender. That list includes Evan Longoria, Aki Iwamura, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Dioner Navarro, Willy Aybar and Gabe Gross. Even a couple of acquisitions that have not stuck with the big club, Joel Guzman (now a minor league free agent) and Justin Ruggiano are solid defensive players.

Even the Rays latest acquisition is a good defender. While nobody foresaw the acquisition of Matt Joyce from the Tigers for Edwin Jackson, the move should not have come as a surprise. Joyce fits perfectly into the mold established by the front office. He is young, cheap, above-average with the bat and very good defensively. Once Joyce becomes the Rays’ everyday right fielder, joining Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, the Rays will have the best defensive outfield in baseball, and one that can hold it’s own offensively.

IT IS TIME FOR THE RAYS TO BE RECOGNIZED AS BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM IN BASEBALL: We have seen a better recognition by baseball writers towards the importance of good defense and how that can help a team like the Rays to the World Series. And while the Gold Glove is a flawed award, it is often based on the perceptions of the baseball writing community. And those writers now have access to better evaluations of defensive ability.

With more eyes on the Rays in 2009 and the recognition of just how good they are defensively, it is time that the writers acknowledge that recognition with multiple Gold Glove awards. While Pena is a good choice to repeat at first base, Jason Bartlett, Aki Iwamura, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro and BJ Upton may also deserve consideration.

In the 2009 edition of “The Bill James Handbook” Crawford won The Fielding Bible Award for left fielders and Pena, Longoria and Navarro all finished in the top 7 at their respective positions. Bartlett, who battled multiple injuries in 2008 should return to his 2007 form as one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball. And despite playing relatively new positions, Iwamura and Upton will start to be recognized for their work.

On the third day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is THREE Gold Glove awards, and…
TWO months in triple-A for David Price [Day 2]
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the second day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, TWO months in triple-A for David Price…

No matter where you look, everybody is talking about how the Rays will be better in 2009 with the addition of David Price to the rotation. But the more we think about it, the more it seems to us that the best move is to keep King David in Durham for at least the first two months of the season.

The Rays have always made it very clear that, barring injuries at the major league level, the needs of the prospect outweigh the needs of the team. If we consider the needs of Price, starting the season in Durham makes the most sense. And in the end, it may also make more sense for the team.

PRICE STILL HAS VERY LITTLE EXPERIENCE: 2008 was Price’s first professional season, and he missed the first month with a sore elbow. Even though he made a rapid ascension through the system, Price still only has 20 professional starts, and only five above double-A.

Even if we consider his college experience, it is still only 54 starts and 383.2 innings in four seasons since high school. For comparison, James Shields threw 536 innings in the minors with 86 starts and Matt Garza threw 548.2 innings and made 89 starts between college and the minors.

While we saw what Price was capable of in the postseason, when he recorded the final five outs of game 7 against the Red Sox, it seems to us that 10-15 more starts in the minors could be beneficial to Price.

A FULL SEASON IN THE MAJORS COULD BE TOO MUCH STRAIN ON PRICE’S ARM: In 2008, Price logged 129.1 innings including the postseason. If the Rays insert Price into the rotation to begin the season, that number will jump dramatically. Even if he misses a few starts and only averages six innings per start, Price will throw about 180 innings. By comparison, James Shields threw 215 regular season innings in 2008. Even with that conservative estimate, 180 innings would mark a 39.2% increase in the number of innings on his young arm. And we are not even considering the possibility of extra innings thrown in any potential postseason games.

Also consider that Price has a limited off-season this winter. With the Rays winning the American League, Price made his final appearance on October 27. That is a full two months later than most players his age, as minor league seasons end in August. As a result, Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey are likely to limit Price’s workload in the spring. Having never opened a season in the majors, the team will likely see this as not being sufficient to prepare for a spot in the major league rotation.

The Rays could conceivably make Price the fifth starter and just limit his pitch count early in the season, and even skip him in the rotation a few times with off-days. But Joe Maddon has never been one to skip a starting pitcher, preferring to stick with the rotation and give the pitchers an occasional day of rest.

No. It makes more sense to have Price begin the season in triple-A, where a strict pitch count is easier to enforce. The Rays could even limit the number of sliders Price throws if he is in Durham, to lessen the strain on the elbow. Price could be limited to 5 innings per start, with a strict cap on sliders, for the first few weeks and then slowly stretch him out in anticipation of a June or July debut with the Rays.

If the Rays start the season with Price in the rotation, there is a very good chance he will have a tired arm in September and October and they could be risking his health moving forward. On the other hand, if they wait until June or July to promote Price, is is more likely that he will be well-rested for the pennant chase.

PRICE IN THE MINORS GIVES THE RAYS TIME TO EVALUATE JEFF NIEMANN: If the Rays had no other viable options, there would be a better chance of seeing Price in the rotation to start the season. But the Rays do have other options, including Niemann, Mitch Talbot and Jason Hammel.

The best option from that group may be Niemann who is out of minor league options. If the Rays do not trade Niemann before the start of the season, they will have to find a spot for him on the major league roster. With the recent addition of Joe Nelson to the bullpen, there may only be one spot left for Niemann or Hammel (Talbot can be sent to the minors). If Price begins the season in the minors, Niemann could be inserted into the rotation leaving the last spot in the bullpen for Hammel.

In the worst-case scenario, Niemann fails as a starting pitcher and the Rays move him to the bullpen, promoting Price and dropping Hammel from the roster. In the best-case scenario, Niemann takes a big step forward, and proves to be a middle-of-the-rotation major league starting pitcher. The Rays could then decide to stick with Niemann the entire season and use Price in much the same manner that they used him in 2008, out of the bullpen down the stretch. Or they could choose to trade Niemann while his value is high.

With Price in the minors to start the season, it gives the Rays the one thing they always crave: Options and flexibility with the roster. Wait. Maybe that is two things.

On the second day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is TWO months in triple-A for David Price, and…
ONE impact bat with a bow on top [Day 1]

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the first day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, ONE impact bat to put the Rays over the top…

Based on the current financial landscape in Major League Baseball, the Rays will never be a major player in the free agent market. The Rays just don’t have the resources to compete with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets for the top-tier of talent.

And even if the Rays were to go after a big time free agent, the Rays can’t afford the risk that is involved. If the Rays give $13 million a season to one player, and that player is injured, they are handcuffed with 20-25% of the payroll tied to one player. If the Yankees give $13 million a year to Gary Sheffield and lose him to an injury, they can afford to trade for another $13 million player (Bobby Abreu) to plug the hole in the lineup.

The other advantage big market teams have, is the willingness to add extra years to the contract. The Rays cannot risk a situation 4-5 years down the road in which 20-25% of the payroll is tied to one player that has started showing diminished abilities in the field. Of course, we saw how selling their souls to the Devil at the beginning of the decade, came back to haunt the Yankees in 2008 with a roster filled with over-the-hill and over-priced veterans.

In the end, it takes a perfect mix of conditions in which the Rays can even think about entering the free agent market with their eyes on a top prize. And this year may be that Perfect Storm.

1. The Rays will return in 2009 with a roster that will look very much like their AL pennant-wining roster of 2008. With most of the same pieces returning, it allows the Rays to focus all of their resources on filling just one or two needs.
2. The Rays one big need is not pitching. The Rays will never be big players in the pitching free agent market. There is just too much risk involved to put a lot of money into one player that could be lost for a season or longer.
3. In 2008, the Rays offense posted a .762 OPS, good for only 8th in the AL. And while we can expect similar, if not better production from the rotation, the bullpen could take a step back in 2009. If the Rays want to repeat as AL champs, they will need more production from the offense. We can already expect a boost from players like BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena if they can stay healthy all season, and Evan Longoria who will have a year of experience under his belt. But adding an impact bat to the middle of the lineup will offer that one jolt that could put the Rays over the top.
4. In 2008, Rays’ DHs posted a .760 OPS (8th in the AL). They were 20 points off the AL average for DHs. A contender should aspire to be league average at every position and above average at a few. The Rays certainly need an upgrade at DH.
5. The market for DHs (and corner outfielders) is shaping into a buyer’s market with more supply than demand. With players like Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez available and only a handful of teams looking, the price on these players is coming down. We already saw Ibanez sign with the Phillies for $10 million per season (3 years) and his signing cost the Phils a first-round pick. While most of these players had visions of $15 million sugarplums dancing in their heads, they are now looking at $7-9 million per season.
6. The current state of the economy may also be holding back some teams from committing big contracts to all but the most lucrative free agents which may help push prices down even further. The Rays on the other hand are one team that may not have to tighten the reigns in 2009. With the benefit of revenues generated from eight playoff games and the expected boost in attendance along with knowing that most of the roster is already under contract for 2009 and beyond, the Rays are one team that can afford to increase payroll.
7. With a depressed market, several free agents may be willing to sign a one year deal with a mutual 2010 option and an eye towards reentering the market a year from now when conditions may be more favorable. And if they choose that route, they may prefer to play for a team like the Rays that is a contender and offers an already strong lineup with lots of speed. It is not unreasonable to think a player like Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell could be inserted into the Rays lineup and produce 35 home runs and 110 RBI in just an average season. This would be a perfect scenario for the Rays, as they can avoid the risk of having an overpriced player on the downside of his career 3-4 years from now, at a time when a cheaper option could emerge from within.

It would take the Perfect Storm for the Rays to be players in the market for top-tier free agents. But in the current market, the Rays are in a position to sign a player that will likely produce above what he will be paid. The Rays current front office has always said they would be willing to sign free agents if they fit the needs of the team, and as long as the Rays can find a good deal. This off-season is shaping up to be that Perfect Storm.

On the first day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is ONE impact bat from the free agent market wrapped in a ribbon with a bow on top.