With the recent additions of Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Dale Thayer to the 40-man roster let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection.

40-Man Roster Projection
(notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

  • Ages are as of today.
  • Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
  • Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
  • There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu are out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster. Although that can certainly change if Edwin Jackson or Jeff Niemann is traded. We also don’t project Dan Johnson to be back with the Rays.
  • The Rays have 7 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 6 of those players are guestimations at this point. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Dan Johnson, will not be offered arbitration by the Rays. It also would not surprise us if the Rays decline to offer arbitration to Gomes. The latter is more likely if the Rays resign Rocco Baldelli to an incentive-laden contract.
  • The opening day payroll projects to be $54.4 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $58.4 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field, bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money. The Rays could choose to trade Edwin Jackson, Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir. Keep in mind, it is the Rays M.O. to trade a player a year too early, rather than a year too late. The Rays could also save $4 million if Troy Percival decides to hang up the spikes, but recent comments indicate that he wants to play in 2009.


  1. Possum Avenger says:

    I'm still confused why the Rays put Ryu on the 40-man and not Morlan

  2. The Professor says:

    well, Ryu went on last year and Morlan didn't have to be protected until this year. and there is still an empty spot on the 40-man so there was room for both. The Rays either think he is not worth protecting or they dont think he will be selected.

    there was an interesting take from JP Ricciardi last week about this topic. He says sometimes it is easier to lose a player from the 40-man roster than from the Rule 5 draft.

    His thinking: Let's say a guy is borderline ready for the 40-man roster (ie Morlan) but the team adds him anyway to protect him from Rule 5 draft. what happens if the team later needs that 40-man spot for somebody else and Morlan is the most logical player to drop. Now Morlan can be picked up by any team and the new team doesn't even have to keep him on the major league roster. they can just dump him down in the minors for however long.

    On the other hand, let's say Morlan is picked in the Rule 5 draft. Now the new team has to keep him in the majors the entire season. if he is indeed no ready, there is a good chance he comes back to the Rays at some point.

    i dont know if that works in the Rays situation but it is interesting to consider.

    in the case of the Rays, they thought Thayer was more valuable than Morlan (Thayer's numbers were much better in 2008) and felt that it was more important to keep a roster spot open so that a player can be added at some point. not sure i agree, but that is their thinking

  3. Doug A. Milhoan says:

    DePodesta, not JP. It was an interesting article, put the burden on someone else's 25-man rather than your own 40-man.

  4. The Professor says:

    thanks. ever since those two left the A's I ALWAYS get them confused.

  5. Possum Avenger says:


    I am not buying the idea that "flexibility" went into the decision not to put Morlan on the 40-man. If they put Morlan on and filled up the roster and then needed to add someone they could just drop Ryu, who would most likely clear waivers. I suspect that your first sentiment was correct; the Rays simply don't think Morlan is very good. That seems like the only reasonable explanation.

    Although it still seems to me that he MUST have more potential than Ryu so the move still confuses. Why does Friedman refuse to boot Ryu off the 40-man. It makes little sense.

  6. The Professor says:

    you are right. i am surprised that Ryu is getting a spot over Morlan. I am just surprised that they would think Morlan is not very good after only one so-so season.


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