Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulates the 2008 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.
Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 92-70, showing that the Rays played 5 games better than would be predicted based on their run differential (by comparison, the Red Sox record of 95-67 matched their Pythagorean record).
CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays breakout, but still came 10 wins short of the actual number, giving the Rays a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. At the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS, Diamond Mind and The Hardball Times all projected a losing record for the Rays. ZiPS and Diamond Mind gave the Rays less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.
While all of the projections predicted the Rays would score more runs in 2008, the Rays actually scored 8 fewer runs. On the other side of the ball, the Rays were projected to allow over 140 fewer runs this season. The actual number was 273 fewer runs given up by the pitching staff.
The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]