Archive for November 14th, 2008

Nov 14

[TVI] 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index Top 50

TVI Cork Gaines 22 Comments »

Last week we updated our 40-man and 25-man roster projections for the 2009 season. With free agency now in full swing, the Hot Stove is upon us. Therefore it is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays “Trade Value Index” in which we rank the value of top 50 players in the Rays organization.

The TVI ranks every player on the 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because we have to keep reading stories about how he overcame his handicap of having been a Columbia University student, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton in center field for years to come.

We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said, we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be…Or not.

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]


Notes on the Rays TVI top 50…

  • Notice that 10 of the top 11 are under team control for at least the next 4 years, and we expect the 11th (Dioner Navarro) to be locked up to a longterm deal this winter.
  • We have been updating this list every few months for over two years now and this is the first time that Scott Kazmir was not in the top spot. This time, there were arguments for everybody in the top 4 (Evan Longoria, David Price, James Shields, BJ Upton) to be #1. And while there was some sentiment that Matt Garza has surpassed Kaz, the concerns about Garza having a tired arm in 2009 and the fact that Kazmir is both a lefty and the youngest pitcher in the rotation gives him the edge.
  • After Garza, the next group of about 12-13 players consists of the top-tier prospects and younger key contributors to the everyday lineup. This group is led by Tim Beckham. The top pick of the 2008 draft would be in the top 3 of most organizations.
  • Carl Crawford is starting to slip down the list. With only two years left on his contract, a history of injuries and a talent-level that appears to have already plateaued, he is no longer the most valuable position player.
  • Jake McGee was the biggest wild card. There was some sentiment that he was still a top 10 commodity, while others felt he had little value until he was back on the field. Keep in mind that many pitchers need two full years to get back to 100% after Tommy John surgery and some never get back at all (Wade Townsend).
  • One of our rules of thumb is to not get too excited about most prospects until they do something above single-A. But we made an exception for Matt Moore and Nick Barnese. The early reports on both are very promising and the numbers are too good to ignore. But if the 19-year olds slip up even a little, they will tumble down the list quickly.
  • While there are currently openings on the 40-man roster, should the Rays need additional spots in the future, the most likely DFA candidates will come from the bottom of this list. Jason Hammel, Juan Salas, Jonny Gomes, JK Ryu, Troy Percival and Chad Orvella make up the least valuable players on the 40-man roster. Percival is safe, but his age, $4 million salary and questions about his health leave him with very little value at this point.

According to the TVI, the Rays top 15 prospects, in terms of value, are as follows…

  1. David Price
  2. Tim Beckham
  3. Wade Davis
  4. Jeremy Hellickson
  5. Jake McGee
  6. Reid Brignac
  7. Matt Moore
  8. Nick Barnese
  9. Jeff Niemann
  10. Mitch Talbot
  11. John Jaso
  12. Fernando Perez
  13. James Houser
  14. Desmond Jennings
  15. Eddie Morlan
Nov 14

[PARTY AT PLASCHKE'S] FireJoeMorgan Moves Out Mom’s Basement, Closes Doors

FireJoeMorgan.com, Food metaphors, Schadenfreude Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

FireJoeMorgan seems to think they can just close up shop and deprive us all of whatever it was they did, which somehow always made us feel better about ourselves.

The Professor: OMG OMG OMG!!! It’s an FJMchat! Get out your [sic]s, fire up the WTF?! machine and say your goodbyes, people.*

FireJoeMorgan: Hello, everyone.

TP: Yes, this is a rambling, dumb opening statement, in which FJM lay down their patented two word information-less vamp before just getting to the motherfletching point. And yes, what they actually say is particularly dumb.

FJM: After 21 years, and almost 40 million posts (we’ll have to check those numbers, but it’s something like that), we have decided to bring FJM to an end.

TP: WTF?!

FJM: Although we have not lost our borderline-sociopathic joy for meticulously criticizing bad sports journalism, the realities of our professional and personal lives make FJM a time/work luxury we can no longer afford.

TP: Is there any less specific analysis than “It’s not you, it’s us?” It is timeless, generic, and unhelpful. If FJM were an actual media criticizing blog — and we were forced repeatedly to conclude that they were not (they really just had a crush on Joe Morgan) — they might have said something about the socio-economic times or how being married keeps a good man down or that they finally decided to move out of their mom’s basement or something. Instead, what they are contractually obligated to say is: “the realities of our professional and personal lives.” Which is true of every blogger, every single year. So, nice work.

FJM: We started this site with two purposes: to make each other laugh, and to aid and abet the Presidential campaign of Bob Barr. Although we failed in the latter goal, we gleefully succeeded in the first, and thanks to a grassroots internetty [sic] word-of-mouth kind of a deal, we appear to have positively affected the lives of actual citizens as well, which astonishes and delights us to this day. We really never thought FJM would be for anyone but us. We are thrilled and kind of humbled to have been proven wrong.

TP: Yes, we like to make up words also, but for old time’s sake, let’s just throw a [sic] after “internetty” for the fun of it. If anything, it is a word that would only be spoken by somebody that writes a blog while wearing Superman Underoos and eating leftover meatloaf.

FJM: We thank all of you for the kind emails, and the tips, and the support. To each and every person who ever contacted us: hat tip to you.

TP: You have no idea what you are talking about. Most of the emails were just your mom emailing you repeatedly to boost your confidence in hopes that you guys will someday meet girls. The rest were from Jon Miller.

FJM: Perhaps the future holds another project for us on which to waste massive amounts of time. For now, we will leave the site and the archives up as a testament to the fact that if you work hard enough, and blow off enough social occasions, and stare at the internet enough, and get nerdy enough, and repeatedly ignore entreaties from your friends and loved ones to please God stop blogging about Bill Plaschke and get out of the house it’s a beautiful day!, then you, too, can…have a blog.

TP: We need to create a whole new blog called HireFireJoeMorgan.

Sure, FJM led the blogosphere in stats like WHE (working hard enough), BOSO (blowing off social occasions), SRI (staring at internet per 9 innings) and NERD+ (nerdiness). Those stats tell us pretty accurately what FJM did for the internet.

But those stats are not the real reason FJM became first-ballot blog hall of famers. The real reasons are the factors that can’t be measured with an abacus. FJM was scrappy. They were gritty. They had spunk. They were smart. And why? Because they were able to overcome handicaps such as the 5′x5′ unfinished basement with a pot in the corner for a commode. They were able to overcome the 486 computer running windows 3.1 and dial-up internet….WHIRRRRLLLL-BEEP-BEEP-PFT-BEEP-BOING-BOING-DING-BEEP-PISSSSSSSSSS-BOING…You’ve Got Mail!

FJM: Again, from the bottom of our hearts, thank you. And as Joe Morgan himself might say: “I really haven’t seen them play…slidepiece…Dave Concepcion.”

TP: No. Joe Morgan would have said “You have to keep talent if you’re going to build, even if they are going to trade this in for real lives. They’ve been the best blog, so yes, I think it was a good move.”

FJM: Love, dak, Junior, and Ken

TP: Fire these people. Immediately.

*Most of the commentary in this post was blatantly stolen from the archives of Fire Joe Morgan. We could think of no better way to tribute their greatness than by dishing to them a little of their own medicine…literally (sorta).

Post #1377: The Relatively Short Goodbye [Fire Joe Morgan]

Nov 14

[THE HANGOVER] Wade Townsend’s Career With Rays In Jeopardy After Latest Injury

Andre Ethier, Andy Sonnanstine, Brad Pitt, Chad Bradford, Evan Longoria, Paloma Soto-Castillo, Wade Townsend Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

Some sobering news today. Via RaysProspects we learn that Wade Townsend has been shut down in the Arizona Fall League due to a shoulder injury that is expected to “sideline him for an indefinite period of time into 2009.”

This is a huge setback for Townsend, who will be 25 in February, and only has two starts above single-A. We can’t imagine he will be full strength again until 2010, when he will be 26 and likely back at single-A. The bitter irony is of course that Townsend suffered his first major injury in the Arizona Fall League back in 2005 when he blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John Surgery. We have to wonder if this latest injury will mark the end to Townsend’s career in the Rays organization.

On a personal level, this is especially difficult because Mrs. Professor and her sisters grew up with Wade and we have to deliver almost weekly reports on his progress to the in-laws. We are not looking forward to that part of dinner this weekend.

Rays Notes [RaysProspects]
Rays boast deepest system in Majors [MLB]

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • That story we posted yesterday about Evan Longoria and his offseason in Long Beach? Well, during the interview a waitress interrupted to tell Longoria that she would be attending an upcoming party hosted by Longoria. Thanks to some stalking nifty interweb research by ‘Duk over at Big League Stew, we now know that the young lady in question, Paloma Soto-Castillo, was a contestant on the latest season of “Survivor”. And there is a picture…Is there anything Dirtbag can’t do well? Nice pull kid. [Big League Stew]
  • Evan Longoria as Brad Pitt? Fine. But “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” as a “chick flick”? Not even close. Listen. We have no problem with “chick flicks”. They serve a purpose. Some are even good. We have over 300 DVDs and there are more than a few “chick flicks” in there that we would never admit to owning in public. The problem with “chick flicks” is the plot has to be very, very good. If the plot sucks, the movie has nothing to fall back on. On the other hand, take a typical guy movie. If the plot sucks, it is not the end of the world. There will still be explosions and car chases and aliens and girls in lingerie. In other words, there are plenty of distractions from a disastrous plot. And that is what “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” offers. Plenty of distractions. Love story? Sure. But there are enough explosions and gun fire to distract you from the sappy parts. Not to mention, the use of the song “Mondo Bongo” in the climatic fight scene is one of the great movie song/scene combinations ev-ER. Besides, can it be a “chick flick” if the filming led to one actor cheating on his wife? But we like where Her Rays is going with this. [Her Rays]
  • MVN Outsider plays the role of Andrew Friedman and looks at a few moves the Rays should make this offseason. The big suggestion is trading Andy Sonnanstine and Chad Bradford for Andre Ethier…Not terrible, but the Rays would prefer to add a right-handed bat and would probably like to avoid an arbitration-eligible player that comes without cost-certainty. [MVN Outsider]
  • David Chalk writes a guest piece over at Big League Stew breaking down the World Series odds for various teams in 2009 and let’s you know how stupid it would be to wager on the Yankees. Really, really, really stupid. [Big League Stew]