Archive for November 10th, 2008

Nov 10

[PITCHING STAFF HANGOVER] Look At Toll Of 2008 On Rays Pitching Staff; Garza Could Take Step Back In ’09

Andy Sonnanstine, David Price, Edwin Jackson, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Jim Hickey, Joe Maddon, JP Howell, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Troy Percival Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

This morning we linked to a story in which we learned that Jim Hickey has ordered the pitching staff to not even touch a baseball until January. Buster Olney references a number of recent teams that made deep October playoff runs and then suffered from a breakdown of the pitching staff the following year. The main concern is a sudden and drastic increase in innings pitched from one season to the next, especially on the arms of young pitchers.

Hickey and Joe Maddon have always been cautious with their pitchers so we decided to take a closer look at how much stress was put on the Rays’ arms this year due to the extra games in October…

A few notes on the above table…

  • The above table only includes pitchers that were significant contributors to the 2008 Rays and figure to be a part of the 2009 roster. All totals include any innings thrown while in the minor leagues or college.
  • The above group increased their total innings pitched by 2.6% from 2007. If JP Howell is removed from the table (used as starting pitcher in ’07), the increase jumps to 8.2%
  • “Stress” is a statistical look at how much stress is put on the arm of a pitcher. The stress is based on the number of pitches thrown during a season after a pitcher has reached 110 pitches in a start. For example, if James Shields throws 115 pitches in a start, 5 pitches are considered stressful. Here is a list of the pitchers with the highest Stress levels in 2008. Nine pitchers had a stress level above 20 during the regular season, and Tim Lincecum led baseball with a 49 Stress level (what the hell the Giants are thinking is beyond us).
  • Only Matt Garza saw an increase in Stress as a result of the postseason. Garza’s Stress increased from 7 to 15 after postseason starts with 116 and 118 pitches. Scott Kazmir was the only other pitcher with a start in the postseason with greater than 110 pitches (111).

As can be seen in the table, the pitcher that should cause the biggest concern for 2009 is Matt Garza with James Shields and Edwin Jackson to a lesser extent. We are not sure how to judge Grant Balfour’s sharp increase as a relief pitcher, but it should not be ignored.

Garza’s Stress level, especially in the postseason, is worrisome. However, he does have a history of high inning totals. In 2005 and 2006, Garza posted innings pitched of 184 and 185.2 respectively. His 213.1 innings this season marks only a 14.9% increase over his previous career high. Shields had the exact same number of innings pitched in the regular season as he did in 2007, so his increase is due completely to the postseason.

As can be seen in the table, a starting pitcher’s Stress shows a strong correlation to the number of starts with at least 110 pitches. We looked back at each of the starting pitcher’s Stress from 2007. As we can see, Garza’s Stress jumped considerably in 2008, from 2 to 15. At the other end of the spectrum, Kazmir’s stress was much higher in 2007. That could explain the struggles that Kazmir experienced most of the season and could lead to a rebound in 2009.

Shields and Andy Sonnanstine were able to post relatively low Stress totals despite an increase in innings pitched. This bodes well for both pitchers moving forward.

The final factor to consider, that is difficult to measure, is the stress of pitching in the postseason. Scott Kazmir (520), Shields (412) and Garza (431) each added at least 400 pitches to their arm in the postseason. Sonnanstine threw an additional 261 pitches. It could be argued that a pitch in the postseason is more taxing on the arm than a pitch during the regular season. In addition to the stress of the postseason, there is also the factor that arms are tired after pitching for 7 months (including spring training). But how much more stressful is an October pitch? Certainly this varies from pitcher to pitcher, but is something that cannot be ignored.

Ultimately, we have to trust that Hickey and Maddon will take all the extra cautions needed this offseason as the pitchers get ready for 2009. But in the end, there are some serious concerns about how effective Garza and Balfour, as well as some of the other pitchers, will be in the coming season.

Rays pitchers told to take it easy this offseason [ESPN]

Nov 10

[DIRTBAG] Evan Longoria Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award

Evan Longoria, Evan Longoria is a Dirtbag Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

Joe Smith of the St. Pete Times is reporting that Evan Longoria has won the AL Rookie of the Year award. The vote was unanimous.

Longoria was listed first on all 28 ballots submitted by two writers in each league city for a perfect total of 140 points. White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez, who hit 21 home runs (including four grand slams), finished second in the voting with 59 points, and Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (.280, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 50 SB, 98 R) was third at 26 points.

Longoria is the first Rays player to win the award, and seventh player to win the award with a unanimous vote. Delmon Young finished second last season.

Tampa Bay Rays’ Evan Longoria wins AL Rookie of the Year [The Heater]

Nov 10

[HOT STOVE] One Rays Prospect Is Guaranteed To Be Traded, Maybe

Chris Mason, Desmond Jennings, JT Hall, Matt Spring, Mike Wlodarczyk, Rhyne Hughes, Ryan Reid, Wade Townsend Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Back in early August, the Rays added Chad Bradford from the Orioles for a Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL). It is two months later and the Rays have yet to send a player to the O’s to complete the deal. A couple of weeks ago, O’s GM Andy MacPhail was asked about the trade.

MacPhail also said the player to be named in the Chad Bradford deal will be announced between the end of the World Series and the start of the winter meetings. That’s quite a gap. But it’s hardly worth pacing the floor over…”I’ve done everything I can when asked to downgrade expectations,” he said, adding there won’t be any immediate benefits to the acquisition.

The winter meetings are to be held December 8-11.

Often in trades involving a PTBNL, the receiving team (in this case the O’s) is given a list of several players to choose from. This gives the receiving team a chance to scout the players on the list and decide which player they prefer.

With the seasons completed, this suggests that the Orioles are scouting one or more players in the Arizona Fall League. The AFL schedule ends on November 22, two weeks prior to the winter meetings. Rays prospects participating in the AFL include Rhyne Hughes, JT Hall, Matt Spring, Chris Mason, Ryan Reid, Wade Townsend, Mike Wlodarczyk and Desmond Jennings.

We have been unable to confirm, but there is some sentiment that if the teams cannot agree on a player, the Rays will send a predetermined amount of “cash considerations” to the O’s in order to complete the deal. There may also be a six month time limit on the deal.

MacPhail snippets [MASN]

Nov 10

[THE HANGOVER] No Serious Talks For Jackson Or Sonnanstine; Many Teams Interested

Andy Sonnanstine, BJ Upton, Edwin Jackson, Jim Hickey, Joe Maddon, Rocco Baldelli Cork Gaines No Comments »

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • The AL Rookie of the Year Award will be announced today.
  • Rocco Baldelli spoke to the Providence Journal about this past season (probably the worst year of my entire life, and it ended up being one of the best years), and about his future. Rocco says he would be “just fine” playing in Boston but that he doesn’t have feelings for or against the idea. He also mentions that he could probably play 100 games in 2009 if he were a DH. [Providence Journal]
  • Contrary to one Rays website, Ken Rosenthal says the Mets are interested in Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine, but the Rays have yet to begin serious trade talks about either pitcher. Rosenthal also says that the Mets are just one of “many” clubs interested in obtaining one of the starting pitchers. [Fox Sports]
  • Her Rays is not crazy about any of the trades that are being rumored to date, and compares Nick Swisher to a trifle mixed with Shepherd’s Pie. [Her Rays]
  • Mets Today speculates on what it could take to land Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine. [Mets Today]
  • Buster Olney says that Jim Hickey wants the pitching staff to do nothing but rest for at least the next six weeks. Hickey does not want any of them to even touch a baseball until at least January. Olney provides several examples of pitching staffs that broke down the year after a postseason that went deep into October. Hickey is already planning on the pitchers making fewer appearances in spring training, which could lead to more pitchers in camp. [ESPN]
  • Joe Maddon was the 5th worst manager in baseball when it came to utilizing the intentional walk. Out of the 29 free passes issued by Rays pitchers in 2008, 8 times the opposing team would go on to score at least 2 runs in that inning. [Joe Posnanski]
  • Baseball Musings has their “Probabilistic Model of Range” for center fielders and BJ Upton comes in third in all baseball. [Baseball Musings]
  • Rounding the Bases compares Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine to see which is the better pitcher for the Mets. [Rounding the Bases]
  • The Whiz Kid’s Baseball Wisdom speculates on whether the Rays will trade Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine. [The Whiz Kid's Baseball Wisdom]
  • Due to some confusion, David Price did not get to perform the coin toss prior to the Florida-Vanderbilt game, which apparently was a good thing. Price said he was more nervous about the coin toss than pitching in the World Series. [St. Pete Times]
  • Rays Prospects has the list of the top OPS performances from 2008 in the organization. [Rays Prospects]