Archive for November 3rd, 2008

[RAYS HOT STOVE] Rays Decline Options On Floyd And Miller

Cliff Floyd, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann, JP Howell, Trever Miller 5 Comments »

In one somewhat surprising move and one not-so-surprising move, the Rays have declined the 2009 options on both Cliff Floyd and Trever Miller.

The Floyd move is not surprising as we recently learned that he could be headed for retirement. Even if Floyd chooses to play again in 2009, $2.75 million is a stiff price for a player that is a part-time DH and a part-time DL player. In 2008, Floyd appeared in only 80 games (72 starts), hitting .268/.349/.455 with 11 home runs.

Declining Miller’s option was a bit more surprising as $2 million is a fair price for a lefty specialist. The loss of Miller leaves the Rays with JP Howell as the only left-hander in the bullpen.

The Rays do project to have more pitchers than spots in 2009 with the potential additions of David Price and Jeff Niemann. Niemann will be out of minor league options next season. If Price moves to the rotation, Niemann can expect to compete with Edwin Jackson for one of the final bullpen spots unless one or both are traded.

Floyd’s buyout cost the Rays $250K while Miller’s was $400K.

Rays Decline Options On Floyd, Miller [MLB Trade Rumors]

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 2008 Preseason Mathematical Projections: A Look Back

CAIRO, CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, The Hardball Times, ZIPS 1 Comment »

Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulates the 2008 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.


Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 92-70, showing that the Rays played 5 games better than would be predicted based on their run differential (by comparison, the Red Sox record of 95-67 matched their Pythagorean record).

CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays breakout, but still came 10 wins short of the actual number, giving the Rays a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. At the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS, Diamond Mind and The Hardball Times all projected a losing record for the Rays. ZiPS and Diamond Mind gave the Rays less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

While all of the projections predicted the Rays would score more runs in 2008, the Rays actually scored 8 fewer runs. On the other side of the ball, the Rays were projected to allow over 140 fewer runs this season. The actual number was 273 fewer runs given up by the pitching staff.

The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 12 Days Of Raysmas: A Look Back

12 Days of Raysmas No Comments »

Last winter, after the Rays posted their 10th 90-loss season, while sipping frozen margaritas in St. Lucia (or maybe we were just drinking a beer while watching “Cocktail” in our Manhattan apartment) we outlined 12 wishes for the 2008 season. Let’s see how many of those wishes came true…

ONE Evan Longoria in the opening day lineup [Day 1]:
OK, we did not get
Dirtbag in the opening day lineup, but he was in the lineup for game 11. Of course there was plenty of uproar at the time, but in hindsight, 10 games sure doesn’t seem like much. After all, that is less than a DL stint. And we did get 138 games from the likely AL Rookie of the Year…DENIED, BUT WE ARE OK WITH IT NOW

TWO new pitchers in the rotation by the all-star break [Day 2]:
Well, the names were the same, but can anybody argue that the Rays
did have two new pitchers in the rotation? In 2007 Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson combined to go 11-25 with a 5.80 ERA. In 2008, the duo improved those numbers to 27-20 with a 4.40 ERA. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 1.97 to 2.11 and their combined WHIP dropped from 1.58 hits and walks per inning to 1.38 this season…GRANTED WITH AN ASTERISK

THREE AL All-Stars [Day 3]:
This wish came true.
Scott Kazmir and Dioner Navarro were named initially and Evan Longoria won the fan voting for the final spot on the AL roster…GRANTED

FOUR winning records against AL East foes [Day 4]:
In 2007 the Rays went 29-43 against their division rivals. In 2008, the Rays reversed that mark going 43-29. The Rays were 15-3 against the Orioles, 10-8 versus the Red Sox and 11-7 against the Jays. Unfortunately the Rays were only 7-11 against the Yankees…DENIED

FIVE players with at least 25 home runs [Day 5]:
Injuries kept the Rays from coming anywhere near this mark. In the end only Carlos Pena (31) and Evan Longoria (27) reached the 25-home run plateau. A torn labrum sapped
BJ Upton (9) of any power until the postseason. Cliff Floyd (11) only appeared in 80 games, and Eric Hinske (20) might have come closer had he received a few more starts. But the biggest disappointment may have been Carl Crawford (8). Limited to 109 games due to injury, Crawford continues to show a surprising lack of power with only 30 extra-base hits (1 every 14.8 at bats). That number is down considerably from 2007 (1 every 10.2 ABs), 2006 (1 every 11.1 ABs) and 2005 (1 every 10.2 ABs)…DENIED

SIX months with at least 14 wins [Day 6]:
The Rays record by month:

April: 14-12
May: 19-10
June: 16-10
July: 13-12
August: 21-7
September: 13-14

The Rays came short by 1 win in both July and September, but the 21-7 mark in August and 19-10 in May more than made up for those…DENIED, BUT 97 WINS IS 97 WINS

SEVEN relatively healthy months of Rocco Baldelli [Day 7]:
This wish was made well before Rocco Baldelli was diagnosed with a mitochondrial disorder that left many wondering if Rocco would ever play again. Of course, he did play again, even if it was only in 28 games (16 starts), but his right-handed bat helped a Rays ballclub overcome their struggles against lefties down the stretch and his home run in game 5 of the World Series will long be remembered by all Rays fans…DENIED

EIGHT ejections for Joe Maddon [Day 8]:
We knew this number was high when we wrote it. Our point was just to see a more fiery
Joe Maddon in 2008. We think most would agree that he was. As for ejections, the only three we remember is the home opener against the Mariners (arguing a call at third base in which BJ Upton was called out trying to stretch a double into a triple), June 11th against the Angels (the infamous Derryl Cousins “shoebox” game) and August 19 against the the Angels, of course (the game in which Upton was called out for supposedly making a move towards second after he passed first base). That last ejection was the 10th of Papa Joe’s career and 5th against his former team. For the record, that is 1 ejection every 5.2 games against Maddon’s former team and 1 ejection every 92 games against the other 28 teams…DENIED

NINE no-hit innings from Scott Kazmir [Day 9]:
Both
Matt Garza and James Shields had 1-hitters to their credit this season. In fact, now that we have seen The Garza Complex on a regular basis we actually think he is the most likely of the trio to throw a no-hitter. As for Scott Kazmir, we would throw a party if he ever completed a game…DENIED

TEN meaningful games in September [Day 10]:
Heck. The Rays played 16 meaningful games in October…GRANTED

ELEVEN walk-off wins [Day 11]:
In game 2 of the ALCS, BJ Upton hit a sac fly to shallow right field that scored Fernando Perez from third and evened the ALCS at one game apiece. That win was the 11th walk-off win of the year for the Rays…GRANTED

TWELVE major league pitchers [Day 12]:
The Rays were strong one-through-twelve for most of the season and it could be argued that with the addition of David Price in September the Rays actually had more than 12 major league pitchers…GRANTED

[THE HANGOVER] Offseason Already In Full Swing For Rays

Andrew Friedman, Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Joe Maddon, Rocco Baldelli, Tom Foley No Comments »

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA

  • Rocco Baldelli has filed for free agency. [MLB]
  • Joe Maddon will be getting married on Saturday. [MLB]
  • Eric Hinske has filed for free agency. [MLB]
  • MLB Trade Rumors has posted their annual “offseason lookout” for the Rays, taking a look at the ’09 roster and payroll commitments. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • The Rays have already held meetings in preparation for the offseason and Andrew Friedman is now in California for the general manager’s meetings. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Rise of the Rays takes a look at many of the options the Rays could choose to bring in to play right field or fill a role in the bullpen. [Rise of the Rays]
  • MLB Trade Rumors has updated their list of 2009 free agents to reflect Type A and Type B free agents. Since the Rays finished in the top-half of the league in terms of final record, they would have to surrender their first round pick to another team should they decide to sign a Type A free agent. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Rocco Baldelli addressed his free agency and said that he is “very comfortable” playing with the Rays and sounded like a person that wants to return to the organization in 2009. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Expect to see a lot of stories like this one: “Baldelli Makes Perfect Sense for the Red Sox”…While the Rays and the Rocco Baldelli will try to work on a deal for 2009 and beyond, there is some sentiment that the Rays will only offer a minor league deal. We are not so sure. We think it is actually more likely that Rocco signs an incentive-laden major league deal. Baldelli is appreciated in a Rays uniform and the team and the fans believe in him and know what he can do. We have a feeling that Rocco needs that. And while he is a native New Englander, Baldelli could very easily get lost in the shuffle on the Red Sox bench. [Baseball Talk]
  • David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks answers some fan mail. Hilarity ensues. [Bugs and Cranks]
  • Joe Smith talks to Joe Maddon on his reflections from the season and the World Series and the criticism he has received concerning the use of his bullpen in game 5. [St. Pete Times]
  • The Bradenton Herald remembers many of the great moments from 2008 and wonders if it will ever be that great again. [Bradenton Herald]
  • Rays Digest takes a look at how the Rays fared in the “Fielding Bible Awards.” Carl Crawford was the only winner from the Rays but several others received consideration. [Rays Digest]
  • Sully Baseball is not convinced the Rays are a “dynasty in the works.” There have been a lot of stories written recently built around the premise that the Rays are set up to be good for years to come, but we don’t think anybody is ready to start tossing around the “D-word”. As Rays fans we would be happy to win just one and as baseball fans we know that at best the Rays still have to share the AL East with the Red Sox and Yankees. [Sully Baseball]
  • John Romano takes a look at how tough it will be for the Rays to repeat in 2009. [St. Pete Times]
  • To address a point raised after the World Series, Tom Foley did waive Jason Bartlett home in the 7th inning of game 5. The Fox TV broadcast never showed a replay with Foley and the announcers never addressed the issue. The Rays radio broadcast indicated that Bartlett ran through a stop sign. [St. Pete Times]
  • Rays Prospects has an update on the happenings in the AFL. [Rays Prospects]