One year ago on Rays Index we saw the Rays make a big splash early in the Hot Stove season when they sent Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie to the Twins for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eddie Morlan. A day later they would sign Troy Percival to a two-year deal.
Rays Trade Delmon Young And Two Others To The Twins For Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett And A Minor Leaguer [Rays Index]
There has been much speculation about what the Rays will do with Edwin Jackson. Let’s assume for the moment that the Rays do not trade Andy Sonnanstine and both Sonny and David Price are in the rotation at the end of Spring Training. The Rays would then have two options. Trade Jackson or more him to the bullpen.
If Jackson is moved to the bullpen, one factor that has been ignored so far is cost. Jackson is arbitration-eligible for the first time. Taking a look at starting pitchers that were arbitration-eligible for the first time last season, Jackson will make $2.5-3 million in 2009 if he goes to arbitration or signs a one-year contract. Jackson is coming off a season in which he was 14-11 with a 101 ERA+. Last year, Dave Bush was coming off a season in which he went 12-10 with a 88 ERA+. Bush signed a one-year deal for $2.55 million. Joe Blanton, signed a one-year deal for $3.7 million after going 14-10 with a 106 ERA+. However, Blanton had a stronger resume prior to arbitration-eligibility than Jackson. Daniel Cabrera, signed a one-year deal for $2.875 million after going 9-18 with an 83 ERA+.
On the contrary, relief pitchers in their first year of arbitration-eligibility signed one-year deals for $0.8-1.2 million in most cases. Aaron Heilman, who was coming off a strong 2007 season (140 ERA+, 1.070 WHIP), and pitches in a role comparable to what Jackson would be for the Rays, signed a one-year deal for $1.2 million.
Therefore, if Jackson is moved to the bullpen, the Rays will pay have to pay him 2-3 times the salary of a comparable fourth-year relief pitcher, without even knowing if Jackson will be effective out of the bullpen.
So the question that needs to be asked is: Are the Rays willing to pay $2.5-3 million for Jackson to be a middle reliever, with the hopes that he could someday become an effective closer, or would they prefer a player in that slot that makes $0.5-1 million with little or no upside, but may be more effective than Jackson in 2009?
FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The Rays added three players to the 40-man roster last week to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The most notable exception was Eddie Morlan…Was it a mistake to leave Morlan unprotected?
A quick look at the numbers shows Dale Thayer (2.82 tRA, 10.0 K/9 at AAA) was much stronger than Morlan (4.40 tRA, 8.62 K/9 at AA) this past season. Of course Thayer will be 28 next season and Morlan will only be 23. Morlan is only one season removed from being one of the best relief pitcher prospects in baseball. Still, Thayer is more likely to help a major league club in 2009. So if it is Thayer versus Morlan for one spot, we would have understood either choice. Of course, the Rays still have an empty spot on the roster, so the question is really: Morlan or the roster flexibility that comes from having an empty spot on the 40-man roster. The Rays chose the latter and as a result there is a good chance Morlan will be taken in the Rule 5 draft…GOOD CHANCE RAYS WILL LOSE MORLAN
SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
The biggest need for the Rays this off-season appears to be a right fielder…If the Rays do not bring in somebody from outside the organization, who will be the starting right fielder on opening day?
The Rays have options (Fernando Perez, Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist, Jonny Gomes) but are any of them appealing as an everyday option? The Rays were well off the pace of league-average right fielders in 2008, and we don’t see anybody in that group that will change that scenario. Perez still has holes in his swing (172 to 66 strike out to walk ratio). We refuse to believe that Zobrist is suddenly going to slug .550 for a full season. The Rays clearly have lost faith in Gomes. That leaves Aybar. Maddon probably prefers to keep Aybar as a bench guy that receives 2-3 starts a week, but if the Rays are unable to make a trade or sign a free agent, Aybar will be the guy, although others will see time…WILLY AYBAR
THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Rocco Baldelli met with Red Sox officials last week…Does this hurt the Rays chances of resigning Rocco?
There is a lot of sentimentality to keep Rocco and there is little question he can still be a force off the bench. But right now it seems like the Rays would rather see what else is out there before making a commitment to a player that won’t be able to play the field and might only face left-handed pitchers. If the Rays don’t bring in a full time DH, we can see Rocco resigned and forming a platoon with Willy Aybar at DH. But, by the time the Rays try to play that hand, we have a feeling Rocco will be gone. And boy is it gonna suck to see Rocco in a Red Sox uniform facing Scott Kazmir in Fenway in that second or third game of the season…ROCCO MIGHT HAVE TWO FEET OUT THE DOOR
FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
The Rays still have an open slot on the 40-man roster following the most recent additions…Is there a possibility for the Rays to select a player in the Rule 5 draft?
One thing that will take a while to get used to, is the Rays drafting at the bottom of the board. In the Rule 5 draft next month and the Rule 4 draft next June, the Rays have pick #30. The chance a player worth keeping on the major league roster is still available is slim. Besides, the Rays prefer flexibility and a borderline major leaguer without an option is the opposite of flexibility. And looking back, this front office has yet to take a player in the Rule 5 draft for the purpose of keeping the player…NOT LIKELY
FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
With the Rays declining the option on Cliff Floyd, the Rays suddenly have a need for a left-handed hitting DH…Is there any chance the Rays sign Jason Giambi?
We would love to see the Giambino in a Rays uniform next season. And we are not going to say it is impossible but a lot needs to happen before the Rays are even rumored to be serious suitors. The Rays first need to trade for a cheap right fielder. They need to move Carl Crawford and insert Fernando Perez in left field (saves Rays $8.25MM). The Rays need to sign a left-handed reliever for less than $2 million and they need to trade the arbitration-eligible Edwin Jackson (saves Rays $2-4MM). With Rocco’s $4 million buyout, the Rays payroll is already pushing $60 million. That is quite a leap from the opening day payroll of 2008 (~$43MM). Our gut says the Rays are looking at $60 million as a ceiling for the ’09 roster. So if the Rays want to add Giambi’s $10-12 million salary, they need to cut salary in other areas first. And even then…VERY LITTLE CHANCE
SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
Last week it looked like a foregone conclusion that CC Sabathia would sign with the Yankees. Now the Yankees have set another one of their arbitrary deadlines…What will happen to the Yankees if Sabathia signs with another team?
Even better is Phil Rogers scenario: What happens if the Yankees fail to sign Sabathia, AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe, the three biggest free agent pitchers? Mike Mussina has retired and if you heard the press conference you know the Yankees won’t be able to talk him out of it. The Yankees would certainly stop playing hardball with Andy Pettite, but are the Yankees a contender with a 37-year old Pettite, Chien-Ming Wang, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba ChamberlainDarrell Rasneras their rotation? That team could lose 90 games… WE WILL POP THE BUBBLY IF SABATHIA SIGNS WITH THE DODGERS OR GIANTS
SEVENTH INNING (Over/Unders)…
Date for the Rays first trade of the off-season: January 1
All signs indicate that the Rays are going to be very patient this off-season. Then again, it was the end of November last year when the Rays sent Delmon Young to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. We would not be surprised if a deal is made before the new year, but it seems like the Rays would rather play this hand slow and see what others do first…OVER
Number of players currently on the 40-man roster that will be traded prior to opening day: 2.5
The Rays have some decisions that have to be made. Jason Hammel, JK Ryu, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann and Jonny Gomes are all out of minor league options and few remaining roster spots. And while there are a number of people that think the Rays will keep both Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson, the addition of David Price would mean Jackson would have to be moved to the bullpen. Keep in mind Jackson is arbitration eligible and will be a very expensive middle reliever if he is kept. If Jackson stays, that is one less spot available for Hammel, Niemann and Ryu to compete for. The biggest question is whether there is a market for Hammel, Ryu or Gomes. We guess there is, but don’t expect much in return…OVER
Starts for David Price in the first week of the regular season: 0.5
The Rays kept Evan Longoria in Durham for two weeks prior to his promotion. Of course, he had yet to make his big league debut. It will be interesting. Price still only has 20 professional starts and only 5 above double-A. But how many rookies already have a game 7 ALCS save under their belts? While 4-5 starts in Durham would not surprise us, we think Price will be the #4 starter come opening day…OVER
Rays opening day payroll: $60 million
We have a feeling that $60 million is the number the Rays are trying to stay under. If we ignore Rocco Baldelli’s $4 million buyout, the payroll projection as of today is about $54.5 million. That includes our best guestimations on arbitration cases. That leaves some room to add a free agent right fielder or relief pitcher and we don’t see either of those costing more than $2-3 million. There is also room to free up some space if a player like Carl Crawford or Edwin Jackson is moved…UNDER
EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
[Rain delay: queue The Baseball Bunch]
NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Joe Magrane is leaving the Rays for the MLB Network…Who is most likely to take his place in the TV booth?
The two biggest candidates are Todd Kalas and Brian Anderson. Both subbed for Magrane when Magrane participated in the Olympic baseball coverage. Kalas seems more like a play-by-play guy to us. Anderson is certainly rough around the edges, and we suspect he would step on a few of Dewayne Staats calls (there is nothing more annoying in broadcasting than when a play-by-play guy is making a call during a dramatic moment of the game and the color guy tries to insert his two cents at the same time). Still, Anderson is probably the leading in-house candidate…BRIAN ANDERSON
The Bucs are 8-3…Is there any chance they miss the playoffs?
If the playoffs started today the Bucs would be the 2-seed. Even if the Bucs lose to the Panthers and lose the division, they still have a 1-game lead on the next three teams for the Wild Card (Was, Dal, Atl). The Bucs also have the tie-breaker over two of those three teams (Was, Atl) and a better conference record than all three. Those teams would have to win two more games than the Bucs in the last five. The Bucs are in the playoffs. The only question now is “what seed?”…NO
With the recent additions of Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Dale Thayer to the 40-man roster let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that Rocco Baldelli met with the Red Sox last week.
According to major league sources, Baldelli, from Cumberland, R.I., met with the Red Sox at Fenway late last week to discuss his future and the effects of the mitochondrial disorder that limited him to 80 at-bats with the Rays last season.
We have previously heard Rocco’s name as a possibility for the Phillies. However, we suspect Rocco would prefer to sign with an AL club where he can DH. Rocco has stated that he believes he can play 100 games in 2009 if used as a DH.
This latest news of a meeting with the Red Sox has to be disconcerting to those hoping for Baldelli to resign with the Rays. While the Rays are notoriously tight-lipped about such matters, it has been a while since we heard any news of any ongoing negoatiations between Rocco and the ballclub.
On the Coast, it’s very clear [Boston Globe]
Phillies’ Amaro in no hurry to spend money [Philadelphia Inquirer]
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..
Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…
Joe Smith of the St. Pete Times is reporting that the Rays have added Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Dale Thayer to the 40-man roster.
Thayer is a bit of a surprise as the Rays left him unprotected last season and he went undrafted in the Rule 5 draft. However, a look at Rays Prospects’ recent analysis of relief pitching in the Rays organization showed that Thayer had a very strong season with Durham.
Davis is considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. McGee was on a similar level to Davis, however, he will miss most of the 2008 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Rays add McGee, Davis and Thayer to 40-man roster [The Heater]
A Look at Relief Pitching [Rays Prospects]
Earlier today we linked to a video of several Rays receiving their Mohawks during the World Series from a stylist named LMontro.
While looking around LMontro’s website, we came across another Rays-related item. On Montro99′s website is this photo of Carlos Pena wearing a “Montro 99″ wristband.
According to this Boston Globe piece, Pena wore the wristband because he considered LMontro a “lucky charm” (Here is a close-up of the wristband). A quick look around YouTube shows that LMontro is the “stylist for the baseball stars.”
While Pena may consider the wristband lucky, we wonder if Major League Baseball might consider it illegal. Wouldn’t the wristband be considered a form of advertising for the stylist? Unless the teams are playing in Japan, advertising on baseball uniforms is forbidden.
Here is Manny Ramirez wearing a similar wristband.
According to the above Boston Globe article, this is why Manny wore #99 while playing for the Dodgers.
Sounds like a case for Paul Lukas at UniWatch.
Montro99 is Carlos Peña’s “lucky charm” [Montro 99]
