[LATE NIGHT HAPPY HOUR] The Hunt For Rays October
Magic Number, Playoffs?, Schadenfreude September 16th. 2008, 11:33pmThe Rays once again came back after a disastrous game 1 versus the Red Sox to win the second game in dramatic fashion. This time it was a 1-out bases loaded walk-off single by Dioner Navarro…Meanwhile in Cleveland, the Indians also won in walk-off fashion over the Twins.
Yes RAYSHEADS, the Magic Number is now 5 to clinch a playoff spot.
In other words, even if the Twins win their last 11 games, the Rays would only have to finish 5-8 to earn their first-ever playoff spot.
The Rays can clinch at least a Wild Card spot as early as this Friday.
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“You’re still gonna fade”
-New Yorkers
so, is it really 4 cause the white sox and twins have to play each other?
I don’t understand why this site does not think Sonny should be in the starting rotation. I trust in him quite a bit.
actually, not anymore.
this is why i wasn’t using the “actual” magic number.
With tonight’s loss, the Twins are now 3 games behind the White Sox in the loss column. Even if the Twins win all 3 games head-to-head, the best they can be now is TIED for first.
to put it more simply, the most wins the SECOND PLACE team in the Central can have is 93. The Rays have 89. Therefore, 5 wins are needed by the Rays (to get to 94) to guarantee a playoff spot if the Twins win the rest of their games.
as for Sonny…i like Sonny quite a bit. His problem is when he doesn’t have perfect control or command, he is VERY hittable.
There are always nights when a pitcher doesn’t have his best stuff. A pitcher with a decent fastball can often fight through those nights. Sonny can’t do that. He has a BP fastball.
Don’t get me wrong. He can be very good. But he can also be very bad.
My argument for Sonnanstine has always been that he is a solid #4 or 5. You can expect that on average, in 5 starts, he will have one real stinker, 3 when he keeps the team competitive and 1 excellent outing. Chances are that will add up to a mid-4 ERA.
Teams need those kinds of pitchers because it is unusual to have more than 2 or 3 truly outstanding pitchers. Of course, if Price and Davis are what we think they are, and Kazmir, Garza and Shields are as well, that would be a better 5, but until that is established, Sonnanstine remains a solid option in the rotation.
I am right with Mr. Rittner on this one. Loving Sonny as a back-end starter. These guys have a tough decision next year about #5. I guess it would be alright with me if Sonny went to long relief, but I would miss starts like last night.
I would also argue with the view that Sonnanstine does not have good stuff and only gets by with guile-even though Sonnanstine himself says something like that.
His fastball sits mid-high 80s which is hardly overpowering but not junk either. More important, his ball moves in the strike zone. It is not flat or straight. Naturally, when it lacks that movement and is not located well, the lack of pure power hurts, but the stuff is usually good and there is good separation between his fastball and off-speed stuff.
And his breaking stuff is excellent. Did you see the pitches that batters struck out on yesterday? Curves that dropped in from seemingly nowhere, sliders that started in the zone and then dipped to the ankles. He has excellent breaking stuff on most nights, and when he commands his fastball the breaking balls are deadly.
It is true he can be terrible; the frequency of that (by my reckoning 6 or 7 of 30 starts this year) is what keeps him from being a top of the rotation starter. But the view that he does not have great stuff is somewhat exaggerated. It may not be on par with the aces, but it is plenty good.