Archive for September 25th, 2008

Sep 25

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Index Confidence Graph: Week 26

Confidence graph Cork Gaines No Comments »

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

  • The most common response for “Confidence in 2008 Rays” was 10 with 48.7%.
  • The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 10 with 66.7%.
Sep 25

[ANTI-PENNANT RACE] 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes

San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, The Anti-Pennant Race, The David Price Sweepstakes, Washington Nationals Cork Gaines No Comments »

It is time for one of our favorite annual features, the Anti-Pennant Race, the race for the worst record in baseball. The reward for the “winner” is the first pick in next year’s amateur draft. This year is extra special as it marks the first time the Tampa Bay Rays are not a contender. In fact, last season the Rays became the first team to ever be awarded with the top pick in consecutive seasons (until recently, the top pick alternated between leagues), winning the Anti-Pennant in 2006 and 2007.

In the first year of this feature (2006), David Price was the clear favorite to be the top pick. Last year, without an obvious favorite for the top pick of the 2008 draft, we decided to name this feature after the inaugural namesake.

Without further ado, we present the 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes and the race for the top pick in the 2008 draft!

Notes on the Anti-Pennant Race…

  • Seattle didn’t help the Rays out at all, blowing an 8th inning lead. The Nats and the Pads both kept pace with their losses.
  • The odds of finishing with the worst record are 53.2% for Seattle, 46.8% for the Nats and 0.03% for the Pads.
  • Only 3 teams are still alive, but right now it appears to be a 2-team race between Seattle and Washington. We just assume the top pick go to the NL, so we are rooting for Washington. Seattle is doing their best tank-job, losers of 11 straight.
  • The Nationals win a tie-breaker with either of the other teams and Seattle has the tie-breaker over San Diego.
  • Obviously a lot can happen between now and next season (a player could sign with Scott Boras or lose a limb or Michael Phelps could declare for the baseball draft) but here is a list of potential top picks. Back in February, Baseball America projected Kyle Gibson from Missouri to be the top pick next summer. While a lot of people are clamoring for Stephen Strasburg.
Sep 25

[RIGO!] Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo Of The Week: Gm 159 @ Detroit Tigers

Rays Index Game On Cork Gaines No Comments »

Sep 25

[SHOWER-SHOE FUNGUS] Playing A Little Pepper: Detroit Tigers

Pepper Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

FIRST INNING
A look back…
Last night the Orioles, hit 3 batters and even slammed Aki Iwamura to the ground during a tag out between first and second base…Just “playing the game” or dirty baseball?

We actually didn’t have much of a problem with Ramon Hernandez taking out Iwamura. He did go right after Aki, but he had a chance to lay him out and did pull up a tad. On the other hand, go back and look at the second time Jason Bartlett was hit by a pitch. First, keep in mind that this is now the third time Bartlett has been hit by an Orioles pitcher since he hit his only home run of the season against the same O’s. The first one last night may not have been intentional, but the second one was as intentional as it gets. The catcher set up a foot outside and the pitch was 2 feet inside. We understand if the O’s are a little jealous of all the Rays success this season. Jealous of an owner that cares and a front office that gets it. While the O’s and their fans may have thought they would be the ones to someday dethrone the beasts of the East, it must kill them that it was the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Trever Miller retaliated in the bottom of the 8th, but don’t think this is over. O’s hitters might want to wear extra protection next spring…DIRTY AS IT GETS

SECOND INNING
Headlines…
Edwin Jackson came out last night and before he could even record an out the Orioles had 5 runs on the board…Is there still a chance he could start a game in the playoffs?

Earlier this week we actually projected Jackson as the 4th starter. It just seems that Joe Maddon has always preferred Jackson to Sonnanstine. And yet we still would not have been surprised if it was Sonnanstine. Now? We have to assume Sonny is the guy, but there is a catch. If both are on the post-season roster, Sonnanstine might be the better reliever. If only one is needed on the roster, then we now think it will be Sonnanstine making that game 4 start…NO

THIRD INNING
Headlines…
The Twins have moved within a half-game of the White Sox with 1 game remaining head-to-head. The winner of the division will face the Rays in the first round…Who should RAYSHEADS be rooting for…

The Rays went 3-3 against the Twins this season and 6-4 against the White Sox. In reality, both teams scare us. The White Sox have 2 tough lefties in their rotation and a veteran lineup. The Twins on the other hand have Nelson Liriano and the Twins never lose playoff games at the Metrodome. Also, if the Twins win the division, they will come in riding a wave of momentum that could carry over…CHICAGO WHITE SOX

FOURTH INNING
Headlines…
It is starting to look like Troy Percival will be kept off the post-season roster…What does this mean for the rest of the roster?

As for the playoff roster, it means Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine and David Price will all be on the roster. Unless of course Joe Maddon doesn’t think Price can be effective out of the ‘pen. Then Jason Hammel is the last guy in. As for closing in the playoffs, Maddon will go with a committee, playing individual matchups. And yet, it has been Dan Wheeler more often recently. Still, with Wheeler’s struggles, we expect to see other faces, with Grant Balfour being the first alternative…BULLPEN WILL BE FINE

FIFTH INNING
Headlines…
James Shields is scheduled to start on Sunday. At this point that game may have little meaning…Will he make that start?

Joe Maddon has a tough decision regarding the rotation. If Shields starts Sunday, he will not be available until game 2 on Friday. If Maddon is OK with that, look for Shields to start Sunday but only work 3-4 innings. The other option is to skip Shields on Sunday and save him for game 1 on Wednesday or Thursday. If that happens, Shields will be working on 7 or 8 days rest. Extra rest is not always a good thing. Sometimes pitchers come out too strong and overthrow after extra rest. But if Shields waits until game 2, who goes in game 1. If game 1 is on Thursday, Matt Garza could go on normal rest, or Scott Kazmir can go on 6 days rest. If the series opens on Wednesday, Kazmir would likely go on 5 days rest, with Garza waiting until game 3. Of course, Shields and Garza have been much better at home. So the ideal setup may be Garza-Shields-Kazmir-Sonnanstine. But that is only if the series starts on Thursday. Follow that?…YES

SIXTH INNING
A look outside the box…
With the Rays facing the Tigers…what other series should RAYSHEADS watch closely?

With the magic number at 1, the only question remaining is the Rays first round opponent. You can be sure we will be following both the Twins and the White Sox. Minnesota is at home against the Royals and the Sox are at home against Cleveland…ROYALS @ TWINS; INDIANS @ WHITE SOX

SEVENTH INNING
Over/Unders…
0.5 playoff games for Carl Crawford this post-season:

It looks like he is out for the first round, and there is no guarantee that there will even be a second round. And if there is, it could depend on how well Fernando Perez is playing. It doesn’t look good…UNDER

0.5 saves for Grant Balfour in the Detroit series:

This will be a good opportunity to give The Mad Australian a save opportunity or two heading into the post-season. If all the save ops go to Wheeler in this series, then we will know Wheeler is the guy in the post-season. But our gut says Maddon is looking for other options…OVER

3.5 wins in this series against the Tigers:

A sweep? If the Rays win all 4 games, they will finish with 100 wins. Not bad for a team that had never won 80 before. And if they win all 4 the Rays will go into the playoffs feeling well about themselves and it will give them a good shot at the best record in the AL. Of course, we are not sure that is too terribly important…UNDER

EIGHTH INNING
On deck…
Four games are left in the regular season…What are the big things to watch for in this series?

Who closes the game in the 9th inning and how much playing time does Fernando Perez and Eric Hinske receive. That will give us a hint as to what Joe Maddon will do in the playoffs…JOE MADDON’S SCORECARD

NINTH INNING
Putting out the fire…
Now that we have seen the Red Sox celebration…Should critics ease up a little bit on the Rays celebration?

Watch this VIDEO. And that is a team that has won 2 titles recently…YEAH

Natalie Portman and her boyfriend are splitsville…Thoughts?

Natalie, give us a call…ALL GOOD

Nobody seems to be worthy of who can throw out the first pitch in game 1 of the ALDS…Who is your choice?

A guy deeply entwined in the local sports scene. A guy that has won a championship. A guy that could probably give one hell of a motivational speech to the Rays prior to the game…JON GRUDEN

Her Rays is calling for Dewayne Staats to get a mohawk for charity…What is the downside?

Isn’t it obvious?…DEWAYNE STAATS WITH A MOHAWK

Drink of choice for the Tigers series?

Detroit is blue-collar America, so we gotta go import. We are in Texas this weekend for ACL, and close to Mexico…MODELO

Sep 25

[THE HANGOVER] Jackson May Have Pitched Way Out Of A Post-Season Start

Andy Sonnanstine, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Perez, Grant Balfour, JP Howell, Jason Bartlett, Jon Gruden, Troy Percival Cork Gaines No Comments »


Click on above images to be taken to full standings, boxscores or schedule…

THE GOOD: 3 more bases loaded walks. This is starting to get ridiculous. That is now 24 on the season which leads all baseball, to go with 4 hit batters in the same situation. The Rays now have a .376 OBP with the bases loaded, which also leads the majors. On the other hand, the White Sox (Rays likely first round opponent) lead the majors with 11 home runs with the bases loaded…Foiling the double-steal. The biggest play of the game may have been a flawlessly executed thwarting of the O’s attempted double-steal in the 5th. With 1 out and men on first and third, the O’s attempted a double-steal. Dioner Navarro’s throw went threw to second. Aki Iwamura, seeing the runner on 3rd break for home, cut off the throw and nailed the runner at home. It was perfect. A play practiced by every team from little league on and yet rarely do teams pull it off. That kept the Rays within 1 and killed a rally.

THE BAD: When the playoffs start, can the Rays risk a first inning performance like last night from Edwin Jackson? The Rays were lucky that they ran into a pitching staff as poor as the Orioles or they would not have overcome a first inning in which Nuke gave up 6 hits and 5 runs before an out was recorded. At least with Andy Sonnanstine, his bad outings are the type where he gets nit-picked to death. A run here. 2 runs there. In the playoffs, Joe Maddon will be able to recognize that early and get him out of there. On the other hand, Jackson’s bad outings are nuclear meltdowns. At this point we have to assume Sonnanstine will be the game 4 starter. Then again, if the Rays play their first game on October 1, they could bring the game 1 starter back in game 4 on normal rest.

THE TELLING: According to Baseball Prospectus, with the magic number now 1, the odds of winning the AL East is now 99.5%…The Minnesota Twins beat the Chicago White Sox for the second time in 2 days. They now trail the Central leaders by one-half game. They are 1 back in the loss column, so they need to win again tonight to have a realistic chance. The Rays will likely face the the winner of the Central division in the ALDS…The Angels came from behind in the 8th inning last night and the Rays still trail by 2 for the best record in the AL. The Rays do have the tie-breaker between the two clubs having won the season series.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • The magic number is 1 and today’s game is at 1:00 in Detroit. Hell yeah. We gotta do a Live Blog-A-Baloo!
  • In case you missed it yesterday afternoon, we ran a bunch of “Webtopia” links in the evening “Happy Hour” feature. [Rays Index]
  • Another name to throw in the first-pitch mix: A guy that knows something about winning championships, Jon Gruden…Just sayin’.
  • Uh-oh. Attack of the Fennellyisms…Something about Troy Percival and pitching in the post-season. Hard to tell. [Tampa Tribune]
  • John Romano takes a look at some of the post-season roster decisions that are looming, including the bullpen (will Troy Percival be ready, and if not will Grant Balfour get a chance to close in the final series against Detroit?), the rotation (3- or 4-man rotation) and outfield (Fernando Perez and/or Carl Crawford). Joe Maddon makes it clear that even though he and Percy have a long history, the decision will be based on what is best for the Rays. [St. Pete Times]
  • Praise for the the Rays these days is coming from all corners of the MLBiverse. [MLB]
  • Both St. Pete and Tampa are planing celebrations in honor of the Rays. [St. Pete Times]
  • Another example of how improbable this run has been for the Rays…Camden Chat put together an All-AL East team and there are only 2 Rays on the list, and that was only because they decided to take a middle reliever, JP Howell. The other was Dioner Navarro. [Camden Chat]
  • Dick Scanlon says that Jason Bartlett is just one of the Rays MVPs. [Lakeland Ledger]