Sep 22
Archive for September 22nd, 2008
Sep 22
Sep 22
FIRST INNING
A look back…
On Sunday the Rays came out and played a very sluggish game losing to the Twins one day after clinching the franchise’s first-ever playoff spot…In hindsight, do you have a problem with the celebration?
This is a tough one. We have no problem with the players celebrating. But: 1) With only 9 games left (prior to Sunday), each game is very important considering the advantage of winning the division; 2) They really haven’t won anything yet; 3) The division title celebration will now be somewhat muted. On the other hand, it is nice that the team got to celebrate at the Trop. But geez, can’t the guys get their asses back home at a decent hour? The game ended before 8:00. With an early game on Sunday, it was imperative to get home. The players have all off-season to hit the bars. And the result was 5 hits, 1 run and 2 errors…WE HOPE RAYS DON’T LOSE DIVISION BY ONE GAME
SECOND INNING
Headlines…
The Rays will only go with 11 pitchers in the post-season. If David Price is to be included, two pitchers that were regular contributors this season will be left off the roster…Which pitchers will be in street clothes for the ALDS? [Ed. note: Here is our playoff roster projection. For another take, he is the projection from Outs Per Swing]
The obvious answer is Jason Hammel. But after The Grim Reaper, it gets a bit murkier. Joe Maddon will only need 4 starters for the first round. It seems the most likely answer is to leave off either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson. But would that pitcher get bumped to the bullpen? If so, who is left off? The Rays could decide Troy Percival is not healthy, in which case one of the starters would get his spot. But if he is ready to go, we don’t see another reliever being off the playoff roster. So we are back to Sonnanstine or Jackson. One is the 4th starter. The other is in street clothes. We give the edge to Jackson, but would have no problem with Sonnanstine…JASON HAMMEL AND ANDY SONNANSTINE
THIRD INNING
Headlines…
BJ Upton is back and apparently healthy enough to play center field everyday…With Carl Crawford limited to pinch-running and late-inning substitution roles, who will be the starting corner outfielders in the first round?
Against right-handers, Gabe Gross will be in right field. But will Eric Hinske be in left? Hinske has struggled in the second half and Fernando Perez has played exceptional defense while showing the skills necessary to be a difference-maker at the plate. Right now we give the edge to Perez, but he may be limited to starts against lefties. Joining Perez against lefties in right field will either Rocco Baldelli or Willy Aybar, with the other at DH. It is possible the right fielder could be Jonny Gomes, but we just don’t see a roster spot available…FERNANDO PEREZ IN LEFT AND GABE GROSS (v RHP) OR ROCCO BALDELLI/WILLY AYBAR (v LHP) IN RIGHT
FOURTH INNING
Headlines…
With the first round set to start either Wednesday or Thursday…who will be the game 1 starter?
As it stands now, James Shields is scheduled to go in the season finale on Sunday. If the Rays have clinched the division prior to Sunday’s game, then Jeff Niemann or Mitch Talbot could take that start, leaving Shields to start the playoff opener. But if that happens, Shields will have gone as much as 8 days between starts. He would then be followed by Scott Kazmir (on 7 days rest), Matt Garza (7 days) and either Edwin Jackson (11 days) or Andy Sonnanstine (9 days). If Shields keeps his start on Sunday (limited to 4-5 innings if the Rays have already clinched), Kazmir would likely go in Game 1 on either 5 or 6 days rest with Shields going on Friday with normal rest…UNCERTAIN UNTIL SUNDAY
FIFTH INNING
Headlines…
Game 1 of the ALDS: Bottom of the 9th and the score is 4-3…Who closes the game for the Rays?
If the playoffs started today, it would not be Troy Percival. But would it be Dan Wheeler? Wheeler has been awful in the 9th inning. Wheeler’s OPS allowed is .480 in the 7th inning, .421 in the 8th inning and .814 in the 9th inning. And we are not talking about 10 appearances. That is 75 plate appearances spanning 24 games. If not Wheeler, then who? Our best guess is Joe Maddon will treat each situation differently. We could even see 2 or 3 guys on the same night in the 9th inning…BULLPEN BY COMMITTEE
SIXTH INNING
A look outside the box…
With the Rays in Baltimore…what other series should RAYSHEADS watch closely?
There are actually two series that matter. Obviously the Red Sox series at home against the Indians is huge, but we also need to keep on eye on the Yankees in Toronto. The Red Sox finish the regular season with 3 games at home against the Yankees. While the players will take that series seriously, we are not sure yet if Joe Girardi and the front office will take it seriously. We also need Mike Mussina to get a win tomorrow night. That would be #19 on the season. If he does, he and the team will go all out for win #20 (the first of his career) on the final day of the season. If he loses tomorrow night, there is a chance he won’t even start that final day. But for now…INDIANS @ RED SOX
SEVENTH INNING
Over/Unders…
7 hits allowed for David Price tonight?:
The Orioles have lost 5 in a row and have averaged 6.5 hits per game over the last 4. Price looked great against the Yankees and then he looked good against the Twins. His arm looks fresh. The only question will be how much he has to dial it back in order to work 6+ innings…UNDER
4.5 wins in the final week for the Rays:
The Orioles have given up on the season and the Rays have a good chance to get 4 in this series alone. Traveling to Detroit will be tough, but the Tigers have also given up on the season, losers of 9 of their last 10…OVER
4.5 wins in the final week for the Red Sox:
The schedule definitely favors the Rays over the last week. The Red Sox should win 2 or 3 against the Indians, but one of these 4 games is against the likely Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, who is 22-2. But the real boost will be the Yankees series. Andy Pettite is scheduled for game 1 and Mike Mussina could be going for win #20 in the finale. And if the Rays can put just one more game between them and the Sox over the next couple of days, the Red Sox will start preparing for the Angels…UNDER
2.5 wins for the Rays in this 4-game set with the O’s:
The O’s have been just awful recently. The Rays had there one-day hiccup on Sunday. Joe Maddon will have them ready for this series. We would not be surprised if the Rays score 27 runs in this series…OVER
EIGHTH INNING
On deck…
David Price will make his first major league start tonight in Baltimore…What does Price have to do to earn a spot in the post-season rotation?
If Price goes out tonight and can go 8 innings (under 100 pitches) with 9+ strikeouts and no more than 6 hits and walks combined, it will force Joe Maddon to at least consider the option. But even then, we are not sure it will happen. Remember, one starter is already going to be out of the rotation. If Maddon inserts Price, that means both Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine would be out. If this was 2007 that would not be a problem. But both pitchers have pitched well enough to start in the playoffs. We think Price is more likely to turn in a dominating performance. But considering his inexperience, he may also be more likely to not get out of the first inning…THROW A NO-HITTER
NINTH INNING
Putting out the fire…
Jason Bartlett was named the Rays’ MVP by the local media…Got a problem with that?
Bleh. If we were going to go with one guy, we probably would have voted for Carlos Pena. When the Rays suffered a number of injuries, Pena placed the Rays on his back and carried the offense the last two months. But Bartlett is a decent choice. His defense solidified the pitching staff and his offense has been better than advertised…WE WOULD HAVE GONE WITH CARLOS PENA OR EVAN LONGORIA OR…
David Chalk over at Bugs and Cranks has joined the ranks of fans sporting mohawks…Thoughts?
We admire his bravery and are grateful that he went mohawk so we don’t have to…EXCELLENT WORK
Obviously, it is a little early to think about the World Series…But what team should THE RAYSHEAD ARMY be rooting for in the NL?
Part of us wants to root for the Cubs and Lou Piniella knowing cosmic forces will be on the side of the Rays. But then if the Rays win the Series, people will only remember it as the Series lost because of a series of inexplicable events that would only occur in a Cubs World Series. Of course it would also be fun to win the World Series with Scott Kazmir on the mound against the Mets…CUBS?
The Yankees tragic number is 1…Any last words for the franchise once known as an Empire?
It is fitting that the Rays clinched their first playoff spot on the same weekend as the Yankees played the final game in Yankee Stadium. It was like a passing of the torch in the AL East…DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU IN THE ASS ON THE WAY OUT
With four big games in three days…What is the drink of choice for the Orioles series?
We couldn’t come up with a good anti-Baltimore beer, so we are going back to Boddington’s, which served us well in the Red Sox series…BODDINGTON’S
Sep 22
[ANTI-PENNANT RACE] 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes
San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, The Anti-Pennant Race, The David Price Sweepstakes, Washington Nationals No Comments »It is time for one of our favorite annual features, the Anti-Pennant Race, the race for the worst record in baseball. The reward for the “winner” is the first pick in next year’s amateur draft. This year is extra special as this marks the first time the Tampa Bay Rays are not in contention to win. In fact, last season the Rays became the first team to ever be awarded with the top pick in consecutive seasons (until recently, the top pick alternated between leagues), winning the Anti-Pennant in 2006 and 2007.
The first year this feature ran (2006), the top pick was not a sure thing, but David Price was the clear favorite. Last year, without an obvious favorite for the 2008 draft, we decided to name this feature after the inaugural namesake.
Without further ado, we present the 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes and the race for the top pick in the 2008 draft!
Notes on the Anti-Pennant Race…
- Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore were all eliminated this weekend.
- Only 3 teams are still alive, but right now it appears to be a 2-team race between Seattle and Washington. San Diego is playing better for some reason, winners of 3 in a row, and are falling off the pace. We just assume the top pick go to the NL, so we are rooting for Washington. Seattle is doing their best tank-job, losers of 11 straight.
- Obviously a lot can happen between now and next season (a player could sign with Scott Boras or lose a limb or Michael Phelps could declare for the baseball draft) but here is a list of potential top picks. Back in February, Baseball America projected Kyle Gibson from Missouri to be the top pick next summer.
Sep 22
Postseason Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection (changes can be made prior to each round of the playoffs)…
- Lineup: BJ Upton appears to be healthy. The only real question is left field. Carl Crawford won’t be ready to start any games for at least the first round. Has Fernando Perez left enough of an impression on Joe Maddon to be the starting left fielder? We say Yes, but won’t be surprised if Eric Hinske gets a start or two. Hinske could also spell Gabe Gross in right one game. Look for Rocco Baldelli or Willy Aybar to be in right field against lefties, with the other at DH.
- Bench: The Rays will most likely go with a 11-man pitching staff, giving Joe Maddon one extra player on the bench. Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar and Rocco Baldelli are locks. That leaves two spots. One must be a backup catcher and it looks like Joe Maddon trusts Michel Hernandez, based on his defensive skills. For the final spot, Eric Hinske has struggled in the second-half, but is Maddon ready to give a roster spot to a guy (Carl Crawford) that will be limited to pinch-running and late-inning defense? Maybe, but Maddon loves flexibility and Crawford makes the bench less-flexible. Of course, this all means that Justin Ruggiano, Jonny Gomes and Dan Johnson will be left off the roster. We might understand an argument for Ruggiano in place of Hinske and Crawford, or in place of Fernando Perez, but neither scenario seems likely.
- Rotation: The Rays will only need 4 starters in the playoffs. And if the Rays play game 1 on Wednesday*, they would have 2 days off in the first 3 games and could conceivably bring the game 1 starter back for game 4. But with the depth of the rotation, we don’t see Joe Maddon going with a 3-man rotation. The top 3 are locks. Who is #4? Edwin Jackson has pitched very well in the second half. Andy Sonnanstine is capable of a dominating performance. What if David Price throws a 3-hit, 11 strikeout, shutout tonight? We give the edge to Jackson, but either of the others would not surprise us. The other question is who goes in game 1. As it stands now, James Shields is scheduled to pitch the final game of the regular season. And if the Rays need that game for the AL East title, he likely makes the start. If the Rays have clinched by Sunday, we suspect Jeff Niemann or Mitch Talbot makes the Sunday start and Shields will go in game 1, followed by Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza.
- Bullpen: Only 2 spots are question marks. Will Troy Percival be healthy enough to pitch? Joe Maddon will not hesitate to keep Percy off if Maddon does not think he is healthy enough. That leaves 1 spot which most likely goes to David Price. We just can’t make an argument for Juan Salas, Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann.
*The team with the best overall record in the AL gets to choose if they play game 1 on Wednesday or Thursday. The teams that start on Wednesday get a day off after game 1 and game 2, while the teams that start on Thursday only get 1 off-day in the first 3 games. A team with only 3 good starters would choose to start on Wednesday so they can utilize a 3-man rotation. The Angels would likely make the Rays start on Wednesday if the Rays are the Wild Card team. The benefit to the Angels is the quick turn-around leveled on the Rays going from Detroit to home to Anaheim in 3 days. If the Rays have the best record they would likely prefer to start on Thursday for the extra day of rest and knowing that the rotation is at least 4-deep.
Sep 22
[THE HANGOVER] Rays Give Away Game With Division Still On Line
Andrew Friedman, David Price, Joe Maddon, Joe Torre, Matt Garza, Matt Silverman, Mitch Talbot, Troy Percival 1 Comment »
Click on above images to be taken to full standings, boxscores or schedule…
THE GOOD: Even though the lead in the East is down to 1.5, the Rays are still very much in the driver’s seat. The lead in the loss column is 2 and the Rays hold the tie-breaker. In order for the Rays to lose the division, they need to lose 3 more games than the Red Sox this week and their last 3 games are at home against the Yankees. In other words, if the Rays go 4-4, the Red Sox have to go 6-1. And don’t think the Yankees won’t enjoy playing spoiler against the Sox…The odds of the Rays winning the Division according to Baseball Prospectus is now 72.3%…The Yankees Tragic number is 1.
THE BAD: We sure hope the Rays don’t lose the division by 1 game as the Rays just gave away a game yesterday. We thought the afternoon clinching game on Saturday would help a little. Let the Rays celebrate for a few hours and they could still get a decent night’s sleep prior to getaway day. After all, there is still a division to win with only a week to play. Every game is important. But apparently they went too far as the team played as if they were hungover yesterday, managing only 5 hits and committing 2 errors. And keep in mind the difference between winning the division and being the Wild Card. The Wild Card team starts on the road and likely has to beat both the Angels and the Red Sox without home field advatage in order to get to the World Series. Also, the Rays finish the season this week with 8 games in 7 days on the road. If they are the Wild Card, they will come home next Sunday and have to fly out to Anaheim the next morning…The Red Sox magic number to clinch at least a wild card is 1.
THE TELLING: The Rays finished the regular season with an attendance of 1,811,986, second only to the inaugural season in 1998 (2.5 million). Over the course of the season the Rays had 8 sellouts (including Sunday), matching the total number of sellouts from the first 10 years.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Oops. We all know the Tampa Tribune is in bed with the Yankees and barely knew the Rays existed prior to this season. But if Joe Henderson is going to write a piece on how the success of the team starts with Andrew Friedman, then they probably should make sure that the picture running with the story is actually of Friedman, and not Matt Silverman (that is Silverman on the left in the photo, not Friedman). [Update: The picture has since been removed. Here is the picture] [Tampa Tribune]
- We are going to try and get in a Live Blog-A-Baloo for David Price’s first major league start tonight. No promises as the calendar is pretty full. But by 7:00 we will probably need a drink or 10 anyhow. So be sure to check back. [Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo Of The Week]
- Et tu, Chalk? Yes! David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks goes Mohawk, with video! We love that he does this while decked out in Devil Rays gear at a Supercuts. [Bugs and Cranks]
- David Price will make his first major league start on today in Baltimore and Mitch Talbot will make his first start tomorrow in the second game of the double-header. Matt Garza will be skipped in the rotation this time through to give his arm some extra rest. He will next pitch on Saturday. [Rays Report]
- Troy Percival will not be available tonight or tomorrow after receiving another shot for his back. [St. Pete Times]
- David Price hopes tonight’s start will convince the Rays to include him on the postseason roster. [Lakeland Ledger]
- Covering All The Bases isn’t ready to sing the Rays praises just yet, saying that “enough is enough.” Then again, she might just be taking out her frustration of losing Nomah to Mia. [Covering the Bases]
- The Big Lead, after poo-pooing the Rays all season, has finally decided that they will “officially exclude [himself] from the people that continue to doubt this team.” [The Big Lead]
- Joe Torre sent Joe Maddon a fax congratulating him on “winning a tough division.” [Tampa Tribune]
- The Sports Frappe gives their “Sports Douche of the Week” award to Tampa Bay Rays fans, slamming their lack of support, saying: “Their soft fans showed their excitement for this year’s Cinderella season by attending in lackluster numbers, somewhere around 13,000 per game.”…Of course the Rays actually drew more 22,000 per game. But hey, who wants to be bothered by actual facts. The only thing Douchy about that post is the background color on the The Sports Frappe. [The Sports Frappe]
