Archive for September 17th, 2008

Sep 17

[LATE NIGHT HAPPY HOUR] The Hunt For Rays October

Magic Number, Playoffs?, Schadenfreude Cork Gaines 6 Comments »

Lots of goodness tonight…No walk-off heroics. An easy win despite David Ortiz hitting a ball that may or may not be floating in the Bay right now. And in case they didn’t notice, grab the nearest Pink Sox fan and remind them that the Rays have now won 4 of the last 5 between the two teams. And with the Twins loss in Cleveland, two more notches come off the magic number to clinch at least a Wild Card.

Yes RAYSHEADS, the Magic Number is now 3 to clinch a playoff spot.

In other words, even if the Twins win their last 10 games, the Rays would only have to finish 3-9 in their last 12 games to clinch a playoff spot.

On top of that, tonight’s win won the season series with the Red Sox 10-8. Now, if the Rays and Red Sox tie for the division lead at the end of the season, the Rays win the tie-breaker. So, in essence, tonight’s win took 3 off the magic number to win the division, which is now 9.

The Rays can clinch at least a Wild Card spot as early as this Friday.

Sep 17

[KID K] Trading Kazmir Goes Against The Rays’ Business Model

Andy Sonnanstine, Dan Haren, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Scott Kazmir Cork Gaines 12 Comments »

Outs Per Swing takes a look at Scott Kazmir’s numbers and notes that almost all are regressing this season. This leads to the question: “Should The Rays Trade Scott Kazmir?”

So why would you consider trading a 24 year old flame throwing left hander? Because his trade value has never been higher than it is this season. His last start aside, he’s been having a good season and people still see Kazmir as a player who’s not yet reached his full potential. But who’s to say this isn’t as good as Kazmir gets? What if he’s just a good, but not great, lefty who continues to have injury problems?

OPS goes on to note that the Rays have a stockpile of young pitching and have an immediate need for offense, particularly in the outfield. They specifically point to the package the A’s received this year for Dan Haren, and note that a package for Kazmir would be equal to, or greater in value.

Back in February, we predicted that Kid K would be traded this off-season. That was before Kazmir signed a 4-year contract extension. Now our position is that, unless the Rays want to be the A’s, that is “always the bridesmaid and never the bride”, they absolutely cannot trade Kazmir.

There are several reasons…

  1. Kazmir is still young at 24, the youngest pitcher in the rotation. OPS wonders if “this isn’t as good as Kazmir gets?” Rarely do players peak at age 23. Not even Barry Zito peaked that early. Most 23 year old pitchers are still in the minors and yet Kazmir has 122 career starts and 46 career wins.
  2. Yes, Kazmir’s numbers have regressed this season. But it is just one season and he missed Spring Training. This could just be a case where Kid K never got his feet under him this season. And yet Kazmir still has an ERA+ of 124.
  3. Young, power lefties do not grow on trees. Most GMs and managers would give their left cajone for just one, and the Rays will have two next season, with Kazmir and David Price.
  4. Kazmir is signed to a below-market contract for the next 4 seasons. He will make $14 million over the next two seasons ($6MM in ’09 and $8MM in ’10). Kazmir would be worth double that amount on the open market.
  5. Why not trade Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson? Both are young (25) and both have shown considerable improvement this season. Neither player would bring back a Haren-like bounty, but teams will pay handsomely for a young pitcher entering their prime with an upward trend in their stat line.
  6. If the Rays trade Kazmir, both Jackson and Sonny are in the rotation next season. In what is arguably a bad year for Kazmir, his numbers are still better than Jackson and Sonnanstine. Kazmir gives the Rays a better chance to win the World Series. Which is more likely: Kazmir winning 20 games and the Cy Young award in ’09? Or Sonnanstine or Jackson doing the same…ever?
  7. Winning is about 3 things…Pitching, Pitching and Pitching. You can never have too much pitching, especially when that pitching is a known commodity. Kazmir is not a prospect that may one day be a good pitcher. He is a good pitcher with the ability to be a great pitcher.

Nobody trades a pitcher like Scott Kazmir, unless their name is Billy Beane (and maybe the Marlins). Beane has done a great job stockpiling talent, but he is rolling the dice every season hoping a roster full of 24-26 year old players will blossom at the same time. That doesn’t happen very often. And once a player hits arbitration they are traded. The down-side is a roster that is constantly in flux.

The Rays on the other hand are stockpiling talent and signing young players to extensions that keep them with the team into their peak seasons. Trading Scott Kazmir goes against what the Rays are trying to do. That is, build a team that can compete every season.

OPS does note that the Rays should only consider trading Kazmir “if the right situation arises.”

If the Rays had failed in their efforts to sign Kazmir to a long-term contract then we would be on board. But building a core of young talented players that have a known price tag over several seasons is the goal of this franchise and why they will not only be successful this season, but for seasons to come. To make a short story, long…Trading Kazmir goes against the Tampa Bay Rays business model.

Trading Aces; The Rays $40 Million Dollar Question…. [Outs Per Swing]

Sep 17

[ANTI-PENNANT RACE] 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes

Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, The Anti-Pennant Race, The David Price Sweepstakes, Washington Nationals Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

It is time for one of our favorite annual features, the Anti-Pennant Race, the race for the worst record in baseball. The reward for the “winner” is the first pick in next year’s amateur draft. This year is extra special as this marks the first time the Tampa Bay Rays are not in contention to win. In fact, last season the Rays became the first team to ever be awarded with the top pick in consecutive seasons (until recently, the top pick alternated between leagues), winning the Anti-Pennant in 2006 and 2007.

The first year this feature ran (2006), the top pick was not a sure thing, but David Price was the clear favorite. Last year, without an obvious favorite for the 2008 draft, we decided to name this feature after the inaugural namesake.

Without further ado, we present the 3rd Annual David Price Sweepstakes and the race for the top pick in the 2008 draft!

Notes on the Anti-Pennant Race…

  • 10 teams are still alive, but this looks like a 3-team race with Seattle 1-game up in the all-important win column with 12 to play. Not so great for a team that many predicted would be in the playoffs this season.
  • 3 teams could be eliminated tonight, including the Giants, Colorado and Cincinnati.
  • Obviously a lot can happen between now and next season (a player could sign with Scott Boras or lose a limb or Michael Phelps could declare for the baseball draft) but here is a list of potential top picks. Back in February, Baseball America projected Kyle Gibson from Missouri to be the top pick next summer.
Sep 17

[WE GOT YOUR COIN FLIP RIGHT HERE] With Win Tonight, Rays Clinch Tie-Breaker Versus Red Sox

Uncategorized Cork Gaines No Comments »

After last night’s victory, the Rays now lead the season series with the Red Sox 9-8. A win tonight clinches the season series for the Rays. This is significant because head-to-head record is the first tie-breaker should the Rays and Red Sox finish tied atop of the AL East standings at the end of the season (and both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot because of the wild card).

If the Rays lose tonight’s matchup, and both teams finish the regular season tied, the second tie-breaker is divisional record. With a loss tonight, the Rays divisional record will be 38-30, one game better than the Red Sox (36-30). The Rays have 4 games remaining with the Orioles in Baltimore while the Red Sox have 3 at Toronto and then finish the regular season with 3 against the Yankees in Boston.

[Hat tip to David Chalk over at Bugs and Cranks]

Sep 17

[THE HANGOVER] The Fat Catcher Leads Rays With Bat And Arm

Dioner Navarro, Joe Maddon Cork Gaines 10 Comments »



Click on above images to be taken to full standings, boxscores or schedule…

THE GOOD: Andy Sonnanstine vs Josh Beckett. If Beckett faced off against Sonnanstine 10 times, what would the over/under be for Rays wins? 3? 3.5? And yet in his last 2 starts when the Rays needed him most, The Duke delivered against Beckett and the Red Sox. When Sonny is bad, he can be very bad. But when The Duke is on, he can be very, very good…Carlos Pena. Anybody still think that 2007 was a fluke? And last year when everybody was making such a big deal about Pena “using the whole field”, he still never truly went opposite field. He hit a lot of home runs to straight away center or just left of center, something he never did in the past. Well, this season, especially in the second-half, he is using the whole field. Both of his home runs against the Sox in the past week were truly opposite field shots…Dioner Navarro. Of course The Fat Catcher came through with the walk-off ground-rule single, but throwing out Jacoby Ellsbury trying to steal with 1 out in the 8th may have been even bigger. Ellsbury was 48-57 entering the game and if he gets into scoring position at that point, there is a good chance he scores…Finally catching a break. The umpires called time during a swing-and-miss by Carlos Pena in the 9th inning when a ball came out of the Red Sox dugout. It was ruled no-pitch and the next pitch ended up being a ball. Pena would eventually walk on a full-count pitch to make it first and second with no outs….The Yankees tragic number is now 3.

THE BAD: Tonight’s matchup is tilted towards the Red Sox. Matt Garza is coming in on 3-days rest, although he only threw 87 pitches in his last start. He will go head-to-head against Tim Wakefield who is 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 22 appearances/16 career starts at the Trop. However, this season he has faced the Rays twice (both at the Trop) and is 0-1 allowing 6 runs (4 earned) in 13 innings.

THE TELLING: The odds of making the playoffs is now 99.96% according to Baseball Prospectus and 64.8% to win the division.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Brant James notes that a lot of things had to go right in the 9th before Dioner Navarro was even given a chance to win the game. [St. Pete Times]
  • Bugs and Cranks says these games are more about making statements than about making the playoffs and they feel the Rays are making bigger statements than the Red Sox recently. [Bugs and Cranks]
  • Tony Fabrizio says the Rays don’t have a “true ace” but says they have 5 guys that are capable of pitching like one. [Tampa Tribune]
  • OK, this mohawk business is starting to spread. Now half-a-dozen players and Joe Maddon?…And we are all for keeping things loose in the locker room, let’s just hope things don’t get too loose? [MLB] Tampa Bay’s 10 has a picture. [Tampa Bay's 10]
  • Brittany Ghiroli notes that the locker and the bullpen are extremely crowded nowadays, but the extra arms in the bullpen have come in handy. [MLB]