Sep 02
This is a repost from the “Pepper” series earlier today, but it is just too good not to have its own forum…
Those of you that are regulars in this little corner of the interwebs know we never bitch about payroll. Almost exactly two years ago, we did one of our only posts on the subject, in which we compared the salaries of the starting lineups for a late-season Devil Rays-Yankees matchup. At the time, the Rays were 30.5 games behind the first-place Yankees. The payrolls for the starting lineups on that night were $7.6 million for the Rays and $127.7 million for the Yankees, for a difference of $120.1 million.
Two years later, the Rays are now 12 games in front of the Yankees. Certainly the payroll discrepancy is less these days…right?
A 42.5 game swing in the standings and the payroll difference is still $125.7 million, $5 milion more than what it was two years ago. That is $174,000 per win for the Rays and $1.9 million per win for the Yankees.
Karma is a bitch and the Yankees are ours.
Sep 02
FIRST INNING
A look back…
The Rays called up Fernando Perez and John Jaso now that the rosters can be expanded…Where is David Price?
Right now, Price is getting ready to pitch the opening game of the IL playoffs for the Bulls. But more importantly, the Rays do not have an immediate need for Price. The starting rotation is 5-deep and the bullpen is about to get an extra arm in the form of Troy Percival. In addition, there is a nice gap between the Rays and the Red Sox and the Yankees are roadkill. So King David is not necessarily needed to slay Goliath. And with two players on the DL, the Rays still have the option of adding 2 players to the roster and still be eligible for the post-season. Joe Maddon did say call-ups would happen in two waves, with the second batch coming after Durham concludes their season. So we could see Price in a week or two, but we are still not convinced that will happen…NOT NEEDED
SECOND INNING
Headlines…
With the Rays calling up Fernando Perez, John Jaso and Juan Salas…Are you surprised nobody else was called up?
Even though the Rays could have added as many as 15 players, nobody ever expected more than 4 or 5. Still, we are not sure anybody thought it would be as few as 3. Even though his numbers were awful, we were surprised Kurt Birkins did not get the call to add a third lefty to the ‘pen, especially with JP Howell being scaled back to give his arm rest. And if not Birkins, why not another reliever? It was only a couple of weeks ago when Maddon had to use all 7 relievers in 1 game, leaving the bullpen depleted the next night…ONE MORE RELIEVER WOULD HAVE HELPED US SLEEP BETTER AT NIGHT
THIRD INNING
Headlines…
The Rays decided to promote John Jaso instead of Mike DiFelice despite having an open slot on the 40-man roster. The Rays then decided to release DiFelice…Was this the right decision?
We said all along that our preference was to have DiFelice on the playoff roster in place of Shawn Riggans. But Maddon has confidence in Riggans, even though the only runner he has thrown out this season came on a missed hit-and-run. The Rays say they chose Jaso because they do not plan to use the 3rd catcher as anything other than a late-inning pinch-hitter. DiFelice was released so that he would have a chance to hook up with another club for the last month. Noble, but worrisome. What happens if Riggans or Dioner Navarro goes down with an injury? Jaso is all of the sudden the Rays backup catcher. What if Navi is the one to go down? The two catchers on the playoff roster would be Riggans and Jaso, both of whom are below-average defensively…NO
FOURTH INNING
Headlines…
It has long been hoped that Evan Longoria would be back in time for the Yankees series. He will not play in this series and there is no word when he will return…Should we be worried?
With the lead in the East and the comfortable lead over the teams in the Central, the Rays may just be holding off a few more days to make sure he is 100% and to make sure he does not aggravate the injury. On the other hand, wrist injuries are particularly fickle and there is a little worry the break is not healing as fast as the team originally hoped. If we do not see Longoria taking batting practice in the next couple of days, then he might not be back until the Rays next home stand which begins with the Red Sox on the 15th. And even then, this injury may leave Dirtbag with less power for the rest of the season…YES
FIFTH INNING
Headlines…
[RAIN DELAY...Queue episodes of The Baseball Bunch]
SIXTH INNING
A look outside the box…
With the Rays facing the roadkill Yankees…what other series this weekend should RAYSHEADS watch closely?
There is no easy answer this week. First you have the Red Sox at home against Baltimore. Any win by the O’s in that series is bonus. So let’s look to the wild card. The Rays magic number to clinch at least a wild card berth is now 19. The Twins are in Toronto and the White Sox are in Cleveland. We still think the White Sox will put away the division at some point, so any loss by the Twins is a game closer to clinching for the Rays…TWINS @ TORONTO
SEVENTH INNING
Over/Unders…
100 wins for the Rays…
The Rays are now on pace to win 101 games and have a good shot to become the first team to ever have the worst record in baseball one season and then the best record in baseball the next season. Only one other team went from worst record to first place, the ’91 Twins, and only one team has ever gone from 95 losses to 95 wins, the D-Backs in ’99. However, the schedule will not be kind to the Rays. Looking at the schedule, which includes 12 with the Red Sox and Yankees and 4 with the Twins, our best unbiased guess is 15-12 down the stretch. That is 99 wins…UNDER
0.5 starts for John Jaso in September…
If and when the Rays clinch the division (not just a playoff spot), look for many of the regulars to get a day off. And with Riggans playing a lot recently, that means Jaso could get a start that day, with Riggans splitting time with Dioner Navarro with the remaining games…OVER
1.5 wins for the Rays against the Yankees…
This is not going to be easy. We don’t trust the Rays young lineup against Mike Mussina tonight. Matt Garza might have to throw another shutout. Carl Pavano goes to the mound tomorrow and he has pitched well in his first two starts after missing nearly 4 years. Still, a toss-up with the suddenly ace-like Edwin Jackson going for the Rays. We feel better about Sunday. The key to us is tonight. If the Rays can get a win tonight, with a likely Red Sox win at home against the Orioles, that will be the final nail in the Yankees coffin. That would deflate the Yankees for the rest of the series. A win tonight and the Rays will sweep the series…OVER
EIGHTH INNING
On deck…
Almost two years ago, you did a comparison of the payrolls of just the starting lineups in a game versus the Yankees. The starting 10 of each team was $7.6MM for the Rays and $127.7MM for the Yankees…With the Rays now sitting 12 games in front of the Evil Empire in the standings, how do the starting lineups compare now?
NINTH INNING
Putting out the fire…
The Yankees will field a starting lineup tonight with a combined salary of $140MM…What happened to all the injuries Hank Steinbrenner was complaining about?
In the Yankees defense, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Lou Gehrig are unavailable tonight…WE REALLY HAVE NO IDEA
The Red Sox schedule looks easier than the Rays…Will the Red Sox catch the Rays before the end of the season?
The only way this happens is if the Red Sox win at least 5 of the head-to-head matchups. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. The Twins and the White Sox are worried about each other. If the Red Sox put a few games between themselves and the wild card runner-up, we think they will ease up on the gas a bit…NO
Sep 02
Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.
Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!
Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…
Sep 02
THE GOOD: Admit it. You rolled your eyes like we did when
Stuart Sternberg predicted 50 home wins for the Rays this season. The Rays are now 52-19 at home after sweeping the O’s.
THE BAD: The Rays are only 5-7 against the Yankees this season, and 3-3 at home.
THE TELLING: The Rays lead the AL with 17 bases loaded walks this season. And that does not count being hit by pitch with the bases loaded which we think has happened a couple of times. Carlos Pena has been walked with the bases loaded 7 times, most in baseball…BJ Upton is the first player in franchise history, not named Carl Crawford, to steal 40 bases in a season.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
- Yesterday we indicated that the biggest loss this off-season could be Gerry Hunsicker, with rumors swirling that he could be headed to the Rangers. Now Bill Conlin thinks the Phillies should consider hiring Hunsicker for their upcoming GM opening. [Philadelphia Daily-News]
- It is September and the Rays are in first place…so brace yourself for all of the stories about playing “one game at a time”, treating games like it is “May 2nd” and how the Rays are still trying to “prove people wrong”…First up, Bradenton Herald, then the Sarasota Herald-Tribune, MLB.com.
- Apparently Martin Fennelly thinks the pressure of the pennant race doesn’t start until the arbitrary date of Sept. 2. [WARNING: Numerous incomprehensible sentence fragments ahead] [Tampa Tribune]
- Marc Topkin also says pressure of pennant race suddenly starts today…At least his is readable. [St. Pete Times]
- A Tribune columnist knocking the Yankees? Say it ain’t so! [Tampa Tribune]
These Yankees are just about the biggest mess you can buy for $209 million. The clutch hits that always used to be there have been harder to find. The pitching has been generally miserable once you get past Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte.
- Yesterday we mockingly asked if anybody would write stories about how good attendance was this past weekend…Well, we actually found one, sorta. [Sports Biz By Senno]
- The September schedule is not an easy one. [Baseball in Tampa Bay]
- One Red Sox blogger thinks the Pink Hats will win the AL East. Why? Apparently it is a “hunch”. [Sox and Pinstripes]
Sep 02
Charlotte 6, Durham 1. Ben Hendrickson struck out 8 and walked none, but gave up 3 runs in 6 innings for the loss…The Bulls managed only 6 hits, with the only run coming off a first inning, solo home run from Chris Richard…The Bulls finished the regular season 74-70, 8.5 games up in the IL South division. They will face Louisville in the first round of the Governor’s Cup playoffs.
Jacksonville 7, Montgomery 6 (10). Mike Prochaska gave up 5 runs in 6.2 innings…Rhyne Hughes and Matt Spring homered for the Biscuits in the season finale…The Biscuits finished the second half 35-34, 8 games back, tied for second place in the Southern League’s South division. Anybody else find it strange that the Southern League has a South Division and a North Division? No. Ok, nevermind.
Columbus 5, Rome 2. Jason Ragan picked up his 8th win in the Catfish’ season finale. He gave up 2 runs in 5 innings on 5 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 6…Henry Wrigley had a 3-run home run.
Staten Island 6, Hudson Valley 3. Tim Beckham was 0-2 with 2 walks and a strike out.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- The Governor’s Cup playoffs begin on Wednesday with David Price going in game 1 for the Bulls against the Red’s triple-A affiliate, in Louisville. Price will be followed by Mitch Talbot on Thursday, Jeff Niemann at home on Friday and Wade Davis on Saturday in Durham. The Red’s top prospect, Homer Bailey, will throw game 2. [Our Sports Central]
- Mike Prochaska mixed in some knuckleballs in the final start of his career. He is expected to retire following the season. [Biscuits' Batter]
