Archive for August 4th, 2008

[SHOWER-SHOE FUNGUS] Playing A Little Pepper: Cleveland Indians

Pepper 13 Comments »

FIRST INNING

A look back…
On Sunday, Troy Percival blew a save for the third time this season…Can Percival be trusted right now with a 1-run lead?

The Rays are 3-0 in games in which Percival has blown a save. Still, it was the 3rd time since coming off the DL, in which he has allowed a run. In those 7 appearances, only once did he get through his appearance without allowing a baserunner. He has also been touched for 3 home runs, and a couple of near-misses, after only allowing 4 home runs in his first 29 appearances. To us, it just doesn’t look like he has the same swagger he had in the first-half of the season. But we also know we wouldn’t want to be the one to try and tell Percival he should make a couple of non-save appearances to get his timing back. So, Percy will remain the Rays closer, but the 9th inning is no longer a sure-thing, and eventually it is going to bite the Rays in the ass…NO

SECOND INNING

Headlines
After sweeping the Tigers this weekend, the Rays have extended their lead in the AL East to 3 games. More importantly, the distance between the Rays and out-of-the-playoffs is now 5 games over the White Sox (5.5 games over the Yankees)…Can the Rays start printing playoff tickets?

Don’t look now, but the Rays only have 52 games remaining (51 for NYY and 52 for CHW). The Rays are up 5 in the loss column on the White Sox and 6 over the Yankees. It may not seem like much, but with only ~50 games remaining, we are quickly getting to the point where it is going to be very difficult to overcome that deficit. If the Rays only play .500 the rest of the season (26-26), the Yankees would still have to go 31-20 just to tie. That is a .608 winning percentage, and only one team in baseball has posted better than a .608 winning percentage this season. The Angels (.622). And let’s say the Rays go 28-24, a very reasonable mark. The Yankees would then need a 33-18 finish (.647). In other words, the Rays truly hold their destiny in their own hands. It would require a nose-dive over the final 2 months to keep the Rays from the playoffs. We don’t see that happening…NOT YET. MAYBE NEXT WEEK.

THIRD INNING

Headlines
Rocco Baldelli could be activated as early as today. Earlier this year, many, us included, wondered aloud if Rocco’s career was over after he was diagnosed with a mitochondrial disorder that left him fatigued after even moderate exercise…Now that his return appears imminent, should this be a bigger comeback story than even Josh Hamilton?

We are on record as one website that has openly rooted for Hamilton all along. We truly wanted to see him succeed and make his way back, even after he was no longer a member of the Rays’ organization. Still, the love-fest that is now the Josh Hamilton Story, is a little disturbing. We are still talking about somebody that pissed away his talent, millions of dollars and several years of his life, so he could do every drug under the sun. We should help people like Hamilton and we should root for them to straighten their lives out. But while he may be a hero to people addicted to drugs, he should not be treated as a hero to everybody, especially children. It is a fine-line to be crossed before we are saying it is better to do drugs and do what Hamilton did than to stay clean your entire life. Then we have Rocco who is coming back from something not of his choosing and unlike Hamilton, it appeared his career was over. Unfortunately, it still appears Rocco will never return to being an everyday player. But we will stand and cheer when he steps to the plate for the first time, and to us this is a bigger story…IT SHOULD BE

FOURTH INNING

Headlines
John Jaso continues to tear through the IL’s pitching since his promotion to triple-A Durham…With the emergence of Dioner Navarro and the solid bat of Shawn Riggans on the bench, what is Jaso’s future with the Rays?

Jaso was the Rays’ 12th round pick in ’03. Few have doubted Jaso’s ability to hit. He has hit at least .300 each of the past 4 seasons, and after hitting .271/.408/.405 with double-A Montgomery and making his second consecutive SL All-Star team, Jaso was promoted to Durham. Since he arrived he has cranked it up a notch, hitting .370 (17-46) in 12 games. The question still remains whether or not Jaso can step-up defensively. Reports from Montgomery are that Jaso has improved behind the plate but he still has a ways to go. Also keep in mind that both of the Rays catchers are young. Dioner Navarro will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this off-season, and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the ’11 season. Riggans on the other hand has one more season before he is even arbitration-eligible. Jaso will likely spend ’09 at Durham and the Rays will have to make a decision at the end of that season what move to make. Then again, Jaso could be a gigantic trade piece next year when the trading deadline approaches…DURHAM IN ’09, AND THEN TRADE BAIT

FIFTH INNING

Headlines
Mark Cuban is one of the finalists to purchase the Chicago Cubs from The Tribune Co…If the Cubs are sold to Cuban, how does this affect the Rays?

Even though the Cubs are in the NL, this deal could have a huge impact on the Rays and every other small- to -mid-market team in baseball. The feeling is Cuban will turn the Cubs into the Yankees-West. That is, he could run the payroll up to the $200-250 million mark without hesitation. With another team bidding on free agents, prices will go through the roof. This could effectively eliminate most of the league from ever even considering upper-echelon free agents. And the next tier of free agents will base their values on what that group is making. The trickle-down affect could be catastrophic…IMMENSELY

SIXTH INNING

A look outside the box
What other series in baseball should RAYSHEADS keep on eye on the next few days?

With the Red Sox in Kansas City, we can only hope the Royals win one game and we would be stoked if they could take 2, but we are not getting our hopes up. Rather, the series we will pay close attention to is the Yankees at the Rangers for 4 games. With about 50 games to go, the Yankees are getting dangerously close to becoming an afterthought in the race for first in the East. If the Rays can win 2 or 3 against the Indians, the Rangers could do the Rays a huge favor with 2 or 3 wins against the Yankees…YANKEES @ RANGERS

SEVENTH INNING

Over/Unders
Games for Rocco Baldelli in this series: 0.5

The Rays face 2 lefties in this series, with Cliff Lee on the hill tonight and Jeremy Sowers on Wednesday. If he is not activated today, we do expect him to be activated for Wednesday’s tilt, which will be a huge boost for our Live Blog-A-Baloo ratings…OVER

Wins for the Rays in this 3-game series with the Indians: 2.5

Cliff Lee versus Matt Garza will obviously be tough and we still are not to the point where we can trust Edwin Jackson or even Scott Kazmir. Will he pitch 5 innings, or 7? Too many question marks in this series. Not to mention, in at least the first two game, the pitchers will not have the benefit of Jason Bartlett behind them…UNDER

EIGHTH INNING

On deck
The last time the Rays played the Indians, it was the last series prior to the All-Star break and the Rays were swept in a 4-game series in Cleveland that concluded a 7-game skid…Do the Indians just have the Rays’ number, or will we see a different Rays ballclub this time around?

As we mentioned above, the pitching match-ups make us nervous in this series. We think the offense will be fine as we have seen signs of life. And after getting swept in Cleveland, we think the Rays will be fired up. Winning or losing in this series won’t have anything to do with Cleveland “having the Rays’ number”, but will have everything to do with how the Rays pitch…DIFFERENT

NINTH INNING

Putting out the fire
With the sweep of the Tigers, Detroit has now fallen 7 games back in the division and 8.5 games in the wild card race…Did the Rays just eliminate a potential foe for a playoff spot?

We showed you already how difficult it will be for a team to come back from just 5 games. 8.5 games at this point in the season is like being 6-feet under with the first scoop of dirt already in place…YES

Victor Zambrano has signed with the Yankees and is working out in Tampa…Should RAYSHEADS be worried about Zambrano being too close to the Rays when the going is good?

Are you kidding? RAYSHEADS should be ecstatic. This guy, along with Jim Duquette, Al Leiter and John Franco are the 4 people most responsible for starting the turn around of the franchise. And since he was signed by the Yankees and started working out in Tampa, the Rays are undefeated…THE RAYS SHOULD RETIRE HIS NUMBER

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Tampa Bay Rays Confidence Survey

Confidence graph 1 Comment »

Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.

Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!

Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…


[THE HANGOVER] Rocco Baldelli Could Be Activated As Early As Today

Andrew Friedman, Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, Eric Hinske, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Joe Maddon, Jonny Gomes, Rocco Baldelli, Shawn Riggans, Trever Miller 5 Comments »



THE GOOD: Rally Time. The Rays are now 3-0 in games in which Troy Percival blew a save and are 27-0 in games in which he has appeared.

THE BAD: The offense for the first 6 innings. Prior to the 7th inning, the Rays only hit was an infield single by Evan Longoria in which he beat out a routine ground ball to third. Prior to BJ Upton’s grond-rule double to lead off the 7th, Fernando Galarraga had retired 14 in a row…

THE TELLING: After Jason Bartlett was removed from the game and Shawn Riggans was used as a pinch-hitter and was the Rays’ last player off the bench, meaning he would have stayed in the game had Rays not won the game in the bottom of the 10th. The question then becomes: What would the defense have looked like had the Rays taken the field in the top of the 11th (We were on the Detroit feed, so not sure if Dwayne and Joe discussed this) [Ed. note: See second bullet below]? Our guess is Riggans would have been in right field, with Willy Aybar coming in to play third and Evan Longoria shifting over to play short. Riggans has never played a position other than catcher in his major or minor league career…The Rays are 16-1 at the Trop this season when the crowd is more than 30,000. Bodes well for any potential playoff hopes.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

  • Jason Bartlett will need a couple of days off after taking a pitch off the index finger of his throwing hand, but there is no break and he will not need a trip to the DL. This likely means that Evan Longoria will be the starting shortstop for the next few days, unless the Rays recall Ben Zobrist and demote Jonny Gomes…Also, Shawn Riggans has a significant bruise on his chest, but is otherwise OK, after taking a 97mph fastball to the middle of his chest. [St. Pete Times]
  • Marc Topkin says that Shawn Riggans would have come out of the game, with Jonny Gomes moving from DH to right field had the Rays needed to play the 11th inning. That would have elimnated the DH spot forcing the pitcher to bat in Riggans’ spot (#9). Therefore, whoever pitched the top of the 11th, would have been the 4th batter in the bottom of the 11th. We are not sure if this is Topkin’s speculation or if this came from Joe Maddon, but we are not sure that scenario is better than Riggans playing right field. How much worse than Gomes could he be? [The Heater]
  • Rocco Baldelli is back with the Rays and is set to meet with Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman today to discuss the next step in his return…That next step is likely to be activation from the DL, and we are hearing that could be as soon as today. Of course that could be altered if the Rays need to recall Ben Zobrist and demote Jonny Gomes. [MLB]
  • If and when Rocco Baldelli returns, the Rays are asking that he not give 100% all the time. [St. Pete Times]
  • Brant James does a Q&A with Rocco Baldelli. The biggest revelation is that Rocco does not sound optimistic that he will ever be able to be an everyday player again. [The Heater]

“It’s a weird thing to say to an athlete. Rocco would sprint after balls 110 percent, no matter what the scoreboard (said),” Friedman said. “That’s how he played the game, or plays the game. We’re trying to get him to pick situations and understand situations on the scoreboard, different things to conserve his bullets, for lack of a better word.”

  • Trever Miller got the win, ending his record streak of 121 straight apearances without a decision. [Bradenton Herald]
  • In Ted Flemming’s blog, he ponders Eric Hinske and Dioner Navarro for Comeback Player of the Year…Hinske, sure. But Navi? Not sure where he came back from. [Speaking of Sports]
  • The Rays are up to 3rd in the latest Chicago Tribune power rankings, behind only the Angels and the Cubs (of course). [Chicago Tribune]

[DOWN ON THE FARM] John Jaso Homers And Drives In 6 For Bulls

David Price, James Houser 2 Comments »

Charlotte 12, Durham 7. Jeff Niemann gave up 2 home runs and 4 runs (3 earned) in 5.1 innings. He struck out 3 and walked 2…John Jaso was 2-4 with a grand slam, his first triple-A home run. He drove in 6 for the game and is 17-46 (.370) in 12 games since being promoted.

West Tenn 6, Montgomery 5 (10). Jeremy Hellickson pitched 6 innings, allowing only 2 runs and left with the lead. However the bullpen blew the game. Hellboy struck out 6 and walked 2…Gaby Martinez hit his 17th home run and drove in 2 while Chris Nowak hit his 15th and finished 3-5. He is hitting .308…Rashad Eldridge went 2-5 with a walk and his 18th stolen base.

St. Lucie 5, Vero Beach 3. Ryan Morse dropped to 2-9 after giving up 4 runs in 6 innings…The D-Rays had 10 hits, but all were singles.

Columbus 9, Asheville 2. Jeremy Hall improved to 7-3 after striking out 7 in 5 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk…Greg Sexton keyed a 7-run 4th inning with a grand slam, His 5th home run…Chase Fontaine was 2-5 and is now hitting .256/.371/.353 in 38 low-A games.

Hudson Valley 6, Aberdeen 4.

Bluefield @ Princeton (ppd. rain)

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

  • On Saturday, David Price improved to 10-0 as a pro (14 starts), striking out a career-high 10 in 7 innings. [MLB]
  • James Houser is closer to his return from knee surgery, with simulated games scheduled this week and next. [Biscuits' Crumbs]