Archive for June 4th, 2008

Jun 04

[2008 DRAFT] If All Else Fails, Draft The ‘Hot’ One

Uncategorized Cork Gaines No Comments »

10 posts in one day? Hoochie mamma!

We thought (hoped?) we were done for the day, but this just came across our desk and it is too good to pass up. Three of our favorite bloggers and regular commenters of this site, David Chalk (Bugs and Cranks), Jessica (Her Rays) and Katie (Oh, it’s those Twins girls) made an appearance over at Yahoo! Sports’ Big League Stew, along with Andrea Reiher (Bugs and Cranks and fellow University of Iowa alum) and Rachel W (So Much Sound and Fury).

Their goal was to…ummm?…well, we will just let Chalk tell you…

I love baseball, but I realize the MLB Draft is never going to be as interesting as the NBA or NFL draft. We’ve never seen or heard of any of these people and it’s going to be a year or two before any of them make it to the big leagues…So why not turn it into an entertaining and educational journey with some of the finest female baseball writing minds on the Internets? And why not sprinkle in some information about the prospective top picks with a little analysis of my own.

In other words, if the Rays are having trouble picking amongst the best available players…why not draft the hottest of the bunch.

Sweet Fancy Moses! What has Chalk done? We have no idea what he has started, but one can’t read that piece and not think that Chalk sounds an awful lot like Charlie Townsend…Lucky bastard.

Baseball ladies turn the Rays draft into a meat market [Big League Stew]

Jun 04

[HINDSIGHT IS WHAT IT IS] The 2007 Draft: A Look Back

Cody Cipriano, David Newmann, David Price, Dustin Biell, Emeel Salem, Greg Sexton, Matt Moore, Nick Barnese, Reid Fronk, Will Kline Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

With the 2008 MLB draft tomorrow, the Tampa Bay Rays front office is busy preparing for their third rodeo. Now is a good time to take a look back and gauge the early returns from players selected in last year’s draft. We all know about David Price, but what about the rest of the picks.

While analyzing each pick we took a look at the next 10 players picked and how they are performing to see if there are any gems the Rays missed. Once you get past that mark, we start looking at players that many teams missed out on, not just the Rays. One of our biggest draft analysis pet-peeves it to give too much credit to teams that get a superstar in a later round. For example, the New England Patriots are always credited for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. That pick should not be used to show their drafting prowess. They got lucky. If they knew how good Brady would turn out to be, they would not have risked waiting until the 6th round to select him.

Without further ado, we present you the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2007 top 10 draft picks recap…

  1. David Price, LHP: It took him almost a year to make his professional debut, but so far he is everything the Rays hoped for. In 3 starts he has yet to allow a run and has been touched for only 8 hits and 2 walks in 18 innings. He has struck out 19. Some are beginning to wonder if Price could make a late-season appearance for the Rays. This will only happen if the Rays are in the pennant race and one of Troy Percival, Al Reyes or Dan Wheeler is lost for the rest of the year and there is an obvious need for a 7th or 8th inning pitcher. With his late start to the season, there will still be plenty of bullets left in his arm and the Rays will not have to worry about over-extending him…Player missed: It is hard to argue with Price, but some suggested before the draft that the Rays should take catcher Matt Wieters (4 picks later). Early on, it looks like they would have been justified in that selection also. Weiters is with the O’s high-A affiliate and is hitting .324/.420/.566 with 12 home runs. Would Buster Posey even be on the radar this season if the Rays had selected Wieters?
  2. Will Kline, RHP: After making 9 starts in ’07 and going 0-4 with a 4.97 ERA, Kline was shutdown this spring and will miss the entire ’08 season due to an arm injury…Player missed: The Rays deserve a pass on this one as there doesn’t appear to be a single legit prospect in the next 10 players selected after Kline. The closest is Brian Rike (6 picks later), a lefty-swinging outfielder in the Rockies organization. In low-A Rike is hitting .274/.392/.487 with 11 home runs and 10 steals.
  3. Nick Barnese, RHP: Made 8 starts for Princeton last season going 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 37 Ks with only 4 walks in 36.1 innings. He has yet to make his debut in ’08. At 19, he will likely be on the opening day roster for Hudson Valley…Player missed: Jonathan Lucroy (6 picks later). We are glad that the Rays passed on Wieters, but Lucroy, another college catcher, might be a mistake. He dominated the rookie league in ’07 with a .342/.383/.487 line and he is off to a good start this season, hitting .318/.389/.518 in the SAL with above-average defensive skills.
  4. David Newmann, LHP: Newmann did make an appearance in ’07 and was shut down in the spring this year with an arm injury that will sideline him all season. Two of the top 4 picks shut down for an entire year already? That’s not good…Player missed: Eric Farris (6 picks later). Farris, a second baseman, had a strong rookie campaign, hitting .326/.369/.423 with 21 steals in 63 games, but he has struggled so far in his sophomore season, with a .198/.241/.259 line. Still, like catchers, the Rays have a dearth of second basemen in the system and this one could have been had in the 4th round. Instead the Rays got Bubkis.

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  5. Dustin Biell, OF: Hit .218/.279/.279 and 7 of 12 steals in 49 games for Princeton last year and will likely make his ’08 debut with Hudson Valley…Player missed: Jacob Arrieta (4 picks later). Arrieta is a college right-handed pitcher that is already in high-A in the O’s organization. This season he is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings.
  6. Emeel Salem, OF: Salem was leading all of professional baseball with 25 steals when he broke his elbow on a slide in May and will now be out for the rest of the season. He was hitting .301/.357/.366 and looks like a legit prospect…Player missed: None
  7. Reid Fronk, OF: Fronk had a solid debut in ’07 hitting .311/.396/.566 for Hudson Valley. He has struggled a bit early on this season for Columbus in the SAL, hitting .241/.333/.429. He does have 24 extra-base hits and 6 steals…Player missed: Bryan Augenstein (9 picks later). The big (6’5″, 225) right-hander out of the University of Florida is overpowering the Midwest League with a 3-1 record and a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts. He has 61 strikeouts and only 9 walks.
  8. Matt Moore, LHP: Moore, only 17 when he was drafted, made 8 appearances and 3 starts for Princeton, striking out 29 and walking 16 in 20.1 innings. He posted a 2.66 ERA. He is expected to pitch for Hudson Valley in ’08…Player missed: Adrian Alaniz (5 picks later). So far Moore looks legit and he is a lefty, so no fault with this pick but if we were to suggest another player it would be Alaniz. The right-handed college pitcher is already in high-A and pitching well with 49 strikeouts in 53 innings and a 2.72 ERA. He is 7-0 in 10 starts.
  9. Cody Cipriano, 2B: Cipriano is struggling in single-A Columbus hitting .194/.296/.361. He is 7-7 in steals and does have 13 walks, but strikes out too much with 26 in 29 games…Player missed: Aaron Brown (10 picks later). Brown is a tall (6’6″) righty college relief pitcher that is overpowering the Northwest League. In 37 innings this season he has a 1.95 ERA and 49 strikeouts and only 15 walks.
  10. Greg Sexton, 3B: Sexton is having a solid if unspectacular season for Columbus hitting .307/.348/.443. He has actually greatly improved his numbers over his pro debut last season in Hudson Valley which is a good sign of adjusting to the wood bats…Player missed: Joe Patterson (9 picks later). Patterson, a lefty relief pitcher, drafted out of college has already advanced to high-A in the Giants organization. He started the year in single-A and struck out 37 in 31.1 innings with a 2.30 ERA and only 13 walks.
Jun 04

[DIONER NAVARRO] Defending ‘The Fat Catcher’

Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Navi Is The Fat Catcher, Tampa Bay Sports Blog Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

Yesterday, we ran two posts defending Dioner Navarro against the suggestion from one writer that Navi is a “middling” catcher and that if the Rays want to win now, they should draft Buster Posey.

Tampa Bay Sports Blog thinks we went too far…

This is getting out of control now. I know everyone out there is happy with the production of the fat catcher so far this year, but let’s all relax and just appreciate what he’s done. I’m not going to try to lie and say that he hasn’t improved or performed beyond expectations, he has. I’m not going to buy into people making him out to be some sort of godsend that has finally arrived either though. We all have our own opinions of how players perform and project, but to think this guy is going to become one of the best at his position is quite absurd.

Now, in our defense, we didn’t mean to suggest that we think TFC is the next Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk or Mike Piazza. When we ran those two tables, we were merely showing that those are the only players that have had better seasons as a catcher at such a young age. For anybody to compare TFC to those hall of famers would be absurd and an injustice to those guys and it is not fair to TFC.

However, our point still stands. TFC is a very good hitter. We go into much greater detail in the comments section of TBSB, much of which has been stated on this site in the past. But we will note that the biggest indicator for futures sustained success from TFC is that he is producing in the major leagues as a 24 year old catcher. To be an everyday catcher in the major leagues at such a young age is rare. Jorgie Posada had ONE game in the big leagues prior to his age-24 season. TFC had 255. Catchers are notoriously slow developers, and TFC has the advantage of having the development occur at the major league level.

He will never hit for power. But TFC has a very good swing and develops a lot of line drives. He is hurt by his speed, so he will never be the beneficiary of cheap infield singles or stretching singles into doubles, but there is no reason TFC shouldn’t hit .320 every year.

In fact, TBSB proposed a friendly little wager and we accepted. If TFC finishes the year below .300, we will invite TBSB over to Rays Index to write a post on any subject of their choosing. On the other hand, if TFC hits .300 or better, they have promised to write a post on their site listing 10 positive things about TFC and an additional 5 positive points about Jason Bartlett, whom they were critical of early in the season.

Dioner Navarro Is Heading For A Historic Season [Rays Index]
MLB first-round projections [Yahoo! Sports]
Let’s relax with the praise of ‘the fat catcher’ [Tampa Bay Sports Blog]

Jun 04

[PINK HAT NATION] Red Sox Fans Talking Smack? It Couldn’t Be

Pink Hat Nation Cork Gaines 8 Comments »

Entering this series with the Red Sox we wondered how important this 3-game set was to Red Sox fans and whether they still considered the Yankees more of a threat. It is easy to think that 2 championships in the last 4 years is still not enough to erase 85 years of beat-downs at the hands of the men in pinstripes. That sort of humilation can lead to some serious PTSD and excessive drinking habits.

Still, entering this series the Red Sox were looking up at the Rays and with a 1.5 game lead, the Red Sox would have to sweep the series to grab first place.

Well, at least one Sox fan is taking this series seriously. In fact Sully Baseball (yelling “Sully” in Fenway Park is like yelling “Mom” in a Toys-R-Us) thinks the Red Sox and the Rays are on the verge of developing a mini-rivalry…a “subrivalry”, if you will.

I for one am one pumped up Red Sox fan saying BRING IT RAYS!

But does anyone in Tampa Bay care?…The crowds are just now starting to crack 20,000 a game.

COME ON RAYS FANS!!!

For the first time in your teams history you are going into June with a winning record…hell you are the best team in the AL. You can stick it to the big bad defending champs who have treated your team with less dignity than a pinata…You want your fan base to not be considered a joke?
Then show up… cheer… and talk a little smack.

That’s cute. We can just picture Mr. Sullivan typing that out on his computer while wearing his girlfriend’s pink Red Sox hat, while she is in the bathroom praying to the porcelain gods.

Like we have said a million times…The only way anybody will be sure that we are dead, is parade a Red Sox fan in front of us…If we don’t extend our middle finger, it is time to start planning the wake.

SHOWDOWN! [SULLY BASEBALL]

Jun 04

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Index Confidence Graph: Week 10

Confidence graph Cork Gaines No Comments »

The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

  • The most common response for “Confidence in 2008 Rays” was 8 (They will be in playoff contention all season) with 53.6%.
  • The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 10 with 52.4%.
  • 94.0% of respondents feel the Rays have a shot at the playoffs in 2008. That number is down from 97.3% a week ago.
  • 98.7% of respondents feel the Rays should be at least a .500 team in 2008. Last week that number was 100%.
Jun 04

[WATERFRONT STADIUM] Bud Selig Promises St. Pete An All-Star Game If New Stadium Is Approved

Bud Selig, New Stadium Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

Aaron Sharockman of The St. Pete Times spoke with MLB Commissioner Bud Selig about the Tampa Bay Rays’ proposed stadium to be built along the downtown St. Pete waterfront. Selig was emphatic that the Rays needed a new stadium and that they need one “expeditiously”.

“There’s no question that the Rays need a new stadium. There’s just no question,” Selig said by phone from his offices in Milwaukee. “Look, and I’ve said this in a lot of other places, I’m grateful they’re having a wonderful year this year.

“But their stadium now just can’t produce the revenue you need to be competitive on a year-in and year-out basis,” Selig said.

More importantly, the Commisioner promised a future all-star game for the new stadium if it is built. This should not come as a surprise, as this is standard practice with new stadiums. But the timing of the comments are important as the city of St. Pete stands to benefit greatly from having an event such as the All-Star game in their city and such a windfall could sway influence over local business leaders.

Previously, we speculated that if the new stadium opened in 2012, St. Pete could host an All-Star game as early as 2014 based on current and past commitments to other stadiums.

Baseball commisioner says Rays must have new ballpark [St. Pete Times]
All-Star Game Could Come To St. Pete As Early As 2014 [Rays Index]

Jun 04

[BRIAN GILES] Jeff Moore Doesn’t Understand Why The Rays Are Successful

Brian Giles, Desmond Jennings, Eric Hinske, Jeff Niemann Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Jeff Moore thinks the San Diego Padres should trade Brian Giles to a team that needs a right fielder and a leadoff hitter. Jeff Moore thinks that the Tampa Bay Rays make a perfect trade partner.

Now 37, Giles is no longer a power threat, but he has emerged as an excellent leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, he is still paid like a power hitter, with his 2008 salary sitting at $9 million, and another $3 million required to buy him out after the season to avoid another $9M for 2009…The Rays’ current right-field situation consists primarily of the recently acquired Gabe Gross (2008 OPS of .688), Eric Hinske and Johnny Gomes (who should be a DH) [RI-Gomes has only started 3 games in RF in '08]. Their leadoff hitter in all but two games this season has been second baseman Akinori Iwamura (2008 OBP of .339). The Rays could use help in both spots.

Interesting. you got our attention. Now what does Mr. Moore think the Rays should give up for Giles?

Rays get: Brian Giles. His 2008 buyout paid by Padres if activated by the Rays ($3 million).

Padres get: Jeff Niemann, Eric Hinske and Desmond Jennings.

This is the kind of crap that is generated when somebody knows very little about the team he is writing about.

Would the Rays trade for a player and add payroll if they thought it would improve the club and help in a playoff push? YES.

Are they going to add $6 million in prorated salary for a player (Eric Hinske) that actually has a lower OPS (.831) than Eric Hinske (.847) this season (not to mention Hinske is only being paid $800K this season)? NO

Are they also going to mortgage part of the future by trading TWO Top-100 prospects (Jeff Niemann and Desmond Jennings) for a player that is a free agent at the end of the season? NO

Giles is an interesting player. The Rays might actually be a better team with him at the top of the order. But this is the type of move that other teams make and then regret 96.4% of the time. Andrew Friedman and Co. have gotten the Rays to their current position by NOT making silly desperation moves like this. Just because the Rays are suddenly one of the better teams in baseball, does not mean they are going to deviate from the plan that got them there.

Padres Giles could cure what ails Rays [Fox Sports]

Jun 04

[THE ARCHIVES] One Year Ago On Rays Index

The Archives Cork Gaines 4 Comments »

One year ago on Rays Index we conducted a mock draft and correctly predicted every pick of the first round.

We’re Going Mock Drafting! The Baseball Mock Draft To End All Mock Drafts [Rays Index]

Jun 04

[THE HANGOVER] Sox Dared Garza To Throw Strike-One; Garza Doesn’t Deliver

Buster Posey, Carl Crawford, David Ortiz, Joe Maddon, Matt Garza, Tim Beckham Cork Gaines 5 Comments »



THE GOOD: Say what you will about Aki Iwamura, but this guy was born to hit in Fenway Park. His first at bat of the game was a typical Aki flyball to left field, only in Fenway that is a leadoff home run. Aki would hit 50 doubles if he played for the Sox. Let’s hope he doesn’t figure that out after his playing days with the Rays ends…Carlos Pena had 10 home runs at the end of May in ’07. He had 10 home runs after May in ’08. He got his first of June last night on a ball that looked like it was off the end of the bat and yet kept going for a 2-run shot that gave the Rays a 4-3 lead in the 6th…Grant Balfour and Gary Glover who may be battling for a roster spot over the next week-plus, both pitched and pitched well. They combined for 2.2 scoreless innings of relief with 1 hit and 1 walk. Balfour did allow one inherited runner to score on a sac fly.

THE BAD: Matt Garza. It is all about command in the strike zone for Garza and last night he did not have it. Of his 96 pitches, only 55 were strikes. And amazingly he only threw 8 first-pitch strikes to the 26 batters he faced (31%). In his last start in which he struck out 10, he was strike-one to 23 of 30 batters (77%). This is especially important against a patient veteran team like the Sox. They are just going to sit back and wait for Garza to throw a strike, knowing there is a good chance he won’t. Of the 26 batters that Garza faced, only 3 swung at the first pitch, and one of those was JD Drew’s 4th inning home run. They were just begging The Garza Complex to get ahead 0-1 and he couldn’t do it.

THE TELLING: With Carl Crawford on the bench, Papa Joe Maddon had Dioner Navarro batting in the 2-hole, and Eric Hinske in left field.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • This weeks Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo will indeed be held tomorrow (Thursday) night. And don’t forget that it is an early 6:05 start time, so be sure to make your beer run early.
  • Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • Carl Crawford was not in the starting lineup as he flew to Birmingham, AL to visit Dr. James Andrews to have an MRI on his sore hamstring. There was no structural damage, and CC flew back and was used as a pinch-hitter later in the game. [MLB]
  • With no David Ortiz in the lineup it would be tempting to just walk Manny Ramirez every at bat. But Joe Maddon says he will wait and see how the rest of the Sox lineup is hitting before making any decisions. [Boston Herald]
  • Another power ranking has the Rays rated #1. This one is a bit different in that it is statistically driven, which seems like a good way of revealing the teams that have been lucky or unlucky so far this season. [WhatIfSports]
  • Some blogger apparently stopped playing World of Warcraft long enough to comment on the Rays having better odds to win the AL East than the Yankees. [Sports Crackle Pop]
  • The Rays just started a rather tough stretch of games. [St. Pete Times]
  • Saber Scouting is split on whether the Rays will take Buster Posey or Tim Beckham with the first pick tomorrow. [Saber Scouting]
Jun 04

[DOWN ON THE FARM] Jeremy Hellickson Named One Of Hottest Prospects Of ’08

Jeremy Hellickson Cork Gaines No Comments »

Richmond 7, Durham 0. Ben Hendrickson dropped to 4-4 after giving up 5 runs in 5 innings on 9 hits and 3 walks…The Bulls managed only 2 hits, singles by Nathan Haynes and Justin Ruggiano.

Montgomery 10, Carolina 5. Kevin Lynn gave up 5 runs (3 earned) in 4.1 innings on 6 hits and 2 walks…Rashad Eldridge was 4-4 with 3 RBI and a walk to raise his average to .305…Ronnie Merrill also drove in 3 on 2-4 hitting. Gabby Martinez was 3-4 and hit his 9th home run.

Jupiter 12, Vero Beach 1. Heath Rollins gave up 6 runs in5.2 innings to fall to 2-5 on the year…Neil Walton had 2 of the D-Rays 5 hits and Ryan Royster had the only RBI.

Savannah 7, Columbus 4. Glenn Gibson gave up 7 runs, including 5 (not a typo) home run in the first inning and yet somehow he managed to survive to pitch 4 innings. He struck out 6 and walked 2…Omar Luna hit his 1st home run of the season.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

  • Jeremy Hellickson comes in at #7 on Baseball America’s “Prospect Hot Sheet” for the first one-third of the season. [Baseball America]