FIRST INNING… Yesterday the Rays won the rubber-match against the Pirates and Andy Sonnanstine picked up his 9th win…Has The Duke secured himself a spot in the ’09 rotation?
We are not sure about “secure” but he definitely has a leg up on Edwin Jackson even if Sonny’s peripheral numbers are not as good as his record would indicate. Still, a 4.60 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, to go along with a 3.5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio are good numbers for a #4/5 starter. And with the loss of Jake McGee to Tommy John surgery, there is one less pitcher that could potentially jump and claim a spot in the rotation. Wade Davis hasn’t shown any sign that he could be ready in ’09. It appears as though Niemann is destined for the bullpen or another organization and Jeremy Hellickson is still at least a year away. That leaves David Price as the only prospect that could compete for a spot in Spring Training next season, and we have to think that Jackson would be the first to go…YES
SECOND INNING… Yesterday’s win was the Rays’ 49th in 81 games. They are on pace for 98 wins. Most are accepting the Rays as a good team…but can they keep up this pace?
First let’s do the math. The Rays have 43 of their remaining 81 games on the road where they are 19-19 so far this season. If the Rays go 22-21 on the road, they would have to go 27-9 in their 38 home games to win 98. That seems like a tall order. Certainly the Rays could do a game or two better on the road, but will they? And of the remaining 81 games, 9 are against the Sox against whom they are 3-6 so far and 8 are against the Yankees (5-5 in ’08). 90 wins is almost guaranteed at this point. The Rays need only go 41-40 in the second half, but 98 is a very tall order. Then again they really only need 94 or 95 wins for the playoffs…NO BUT THEY DON’T NEED TO
THIRD INNING… The Rays two best players in ’07 were Carlos Pena and James Shields, both of whom have struggled in the first 81 games…Who is the Rays’ first half MVP?
There are two obvious candidates and one not so obvious. Troy Percival has meant the world to the squad on and off the field ever since he joined the team in spring training. On the field he solidified a bullpen, slotting everybody else down one rung on the ladder, effectively making spots 2-7 in the bullpen better. In addition, all reports indicate that his presence in the clubhouse has been immeasurable. There is also Evan Longoria. The Rays were 5-5 when Dirtbag made his big league debut. They haven’t looked back since going 44-27. As Percival helped slot everybody better in the bullpen, Longoria has done the same with the lineup. His numbers are MVP worthy, .270/.342/.529 and he is just now in the midst of his first hot streak. Finally there is The Fat Catcher, Dioner Navarro. His contribution to the improved pitching staff cannot be overlooked. With improved performance across the board, at least some credit needs to go to the guy behind the plate. In addition, his defense has been outstanding. He is one of only 2 catchers with 50 starts and no errors. He is 7th in baseball with 14 runners thrown out, despite missing time on the DL and his range factor is 8th amongst catchers with 50 starts. And oh by the way he is hitting .317/.368/.444…DIONER NAVARRO
FOURTH INNING… A rumor was floating around this weekend that the Rays were set to send Jeff Niemann and Reid Brignac to Pittsburgh for Jason Bay…Does this trade make sense for the Rays?
First of all, we presented this rumor to somebody with the right connections. This person told us that the Rays and Pirates have never discussed these specific players. But that doesn’t mean that the trade is a bad one. We get the feeling that the Rays have soured a bit on Niemann and Brignac. And Bay would be a signifact upgrade in right field. This is a guy who has posted OPS+ seasons of 145, 132, 150, 138 and 145. He is 29 and is signed through next season with $7.5MM coming to him next season. We would do this deal in a heartbeat, and we have to think that if the Pirates want to move Bay, getting the top shortstop prospect in baseball and a major league ready starting pitcher would be a good bounty…YES
FIFTH INNING… Troy Percival looked solid last night in his first outing since his near-nuclear meltdown, but he did it on 5 days rest…Can the Rays count on Percy in the 9th inning for the rest of the season?
In a word. No. We have to wonder if Papa Joe will let Percy pitch on back-to-back days in the near future and a return the DL at some point seems like a safe bet. Luckily the Rays do have depth in the bullpen this season and they can live with Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler in the 9th inning, but on those days the Rays are much weaker in the 6th, 7th and 8th inning. This is a lot like the situation with Cliff Floyd. The Rays have their hands tied and are just going to have to be very careful and hope for the best…NO
SIXTH INNING… With Aki Iwamura serving his suspension, BJ Upton is serving as the Rays leadoff hitter. Some think this move should be permanent. Are they right?
Cetainly one can argue that Upton would be a great leadoff hitter. He has a .399 OBP and 23 steals. He also sees a very solid 4.0 pitches per plate appearance. And with his lack of home runs this season, he does not appear to be the RBI guy that he was last season. Aki on the other hand isn’t a terrible leadoff hitter. His .346 OBP is not shabby and while he only has 5 steals, he is a solid baserunner. And surprisingly, Aki is seeing 4.1 pitches per plate appearance and is second only to Grady Sizemmore in the AL for pitches seen this season. If we thought Upton’s home runs would never return then we would be more open to the idea. But his doubles and triples are still there so we have to think the home runs will come soon and he is more valuable in the 3-hole…NO
SEVENTH INNING (over/unders)… Starts for Shawn Riggans in this series: 0.5
Shawn Riggans had a huge game offensively last night and there is no doubt that he is a threat at the plate. But more interesting is his work with Matt Garza. Outs Per Swing posted some interesting numbers recently that showed Garza is much more effective with Diesel behind the plate (.731 opp OPS with Navi, .474 opp OPS with Riggans). Riggans normally gets the call on day games after night games, and all 3 of these are at night. We are not sure if Joe Maddon is ready to make Riggans the personal catcher for Garza, but if Garza struggles tomorrow night it could happen soon…UNDER
Lead in the AL East at the all-star break: 0.5
The Rays have 13 games left before the break. Including this 3-game set with the Sox, they have 4 at home against KC, 2 at Yankee Stadium and 4 at the Indians. Considering the Royals series, 8 wins seems realistic. The Sox also have 13, with 4 at Yankee Stadium, 3 at home with the Twinkies and 3 at home versus the O’s. 7 seems realistic and 8 seems hopeful…OVER
Wins in this series versus the Red Sox: 1.5
The Rays are 3-0 against the Sox at the Trop, but the Sox might have not been taking the Rays seriously in that first series. Since then the Sox have swept the Rays twice in Boston. You have to love the pitching matchups if you are Rays fan. The Rays get their Big 3 while they will miss the Sox Ace, Josh Beckett. The Rays still have to deal with Dice-K and the Rays Killer, Tim Wakefield, although they did get to him in the earlier series at the Trop. The Rays should win at least 1, and 2 seems likely with how well the team is playing right now…OVER
EIGHTH INNING… Earlier this season you called the Rays-Red Sox series the biggest series in the history of the franchise. The Rays swept that series. Now the Rays have inched back into first place…Is this now the biggest series in the history of the franchise?
Actually, no. The Rays needed that earlier series to show they were not a fluke. Sweeping that series gave the Rays some legitimacy that has been reinforced by their continued good play. Most now believe the Rays are at least a good team if not yet a playoff team. A sweep in this series might really open some eyes, but it won’t change any perceptions that the Sox are still the team to beat. And if the Rays lose 2 or 3, they will still lead the wild card by at least a game and a half. The Rays have officially separated themselves from the bottom-dwellers of baseball. And most believe they are at least close to the top tier. Losing this series won’t do anything to change that and their playoff hopes will still be very much intact…NO
NINTH INNING (putting out the fire)… A couple of weeks ago, Jonathon Papplebon said that the feud with the Rays was not over, saying: “All I got to say is what comes around goes around. Payback is a bitch.”…Should we expect more fistacuffs this series?
Immediately after that Terry Francona dragged Pappleboner into his office like a schoolboy and gave him a talking-to. Both teams paid a heavy price in terms of suspensions and the league is only going to get tougher on any further shenanigans…NO
Geez. There have been a lot of great races. How about ’78 between the Sox and Yankees. Everybody knows the Bucky Dent home run, but that was only after the Yankees stormed back from 14 games down in July. Still, there is a little “Rocky” feel to this race. But it is only June. If the Rays and Sox stay neck-and-neck the entire way, then maybe. But now?…YES, TOO MUCH DOOBIE
Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!
Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…
The Rays are 49-32, a half of a game ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East and and 4.5 games ahead of the Twins in the wild card race. In the past week the Rays swept 3 games at the Marlins and then won 2 of 3 at the Buccos.
Matt Silverman may prefer a future in St. Pete but he would not commit in a recent interview.
THE GOOD: Andy Sonnanstine worked into the 7th inning for the first time since May 16 in St. Louis, a span of 8 starts…Shawn Riggans was 3-4 and broke a 0-0 tie with a lonnnnggggg home run in the 4th inning…Troy Percival did walk a batter and needed 22 pitches, but otherwise looked good in his first appearance since walking 4 batters, 5 days ago.
THE BAD: Another day having to listen to the Pirates TV crew. They make us want to shove chopsticks in our ears. On Willy Aybar’s home run in the 6th the call did not even start until the ball had landed and went like this: “It is 2-1 Tampa Bay, Aybar’s 3rd home run of the year.” That was the entire home run call…The Rays have a lot of trouble scoring men from third with less than 2 outs, a sign of youth and inexperience. Top of 2nd inning, the Rays had bases loaded with 1 out and the top of the order up. That should be a guaranteed run or two and the Rays scored none. A veteran team finds a way to drive a run home. This seems to happen to the Rays on an almost nightly basis…Another misplay by BJ Upton, playing a single/double into a runner on 3rd base, by kicking a ball to left field. Literally. He kicked the ball into left field. That runner would later score on a sac fly…How about more youth and inexperience? Shawn Riggans forgetting a runner was on third base and going after a dribbler to the mound that Andy Sonnanstine was clearly going to field. The runner on third broke for home and scored without a throw. The Rays can get away with stupid mistakes against the Pirates, but a team like the Sox or the Yankees will eat them alive.
THE TELLING: The Rays now have their rotation set up perfectly for the Red Sox series with James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza scheduled to start games…The Rays finished the first half of the season with 49 wins and are on pace to finish 98-64. Since 2004, the wild card team has finished with 94 or 95 wins each season.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
Troy Percival had not pitched in 5 days and he appeared to feel better. [St. Pete Times]
There will be extra security at the Trop for the Red Sox the next three days and it has nothing to do with the recent tensions for the 2 teams. Somebody has apparently made a very specific threat against black and latin american members of the Red Sox. The Red Sox and Major League Baseball appear to be taking the threat seriously. [Boston Herald]
We are still not sold yet that the Rays will bring in a veteran starting pitcher, but BrewersNation breaks down the pitchers that may be available. [Brewers Nation]
Seems a little extreme to call the Rays and Red Sox the “Best baseball race ever” but it has the makings of being a good one. [Bugs and Cranks]
Durham 5, Richmond 1. Jeremy Cummings continues to impress with his 7th win in 9 decisions. This time he allowed 1 run in 7 innings. He struck out 6 and walked 2…Joel Guzman and Reid Brignac were each 2-4…Jon Weber led off and finished 2-4 with 2 doubles and 4 RBI.
Mobile 5, Montgomery 4. Wade Davis fell to 7-6 after giving up 5 runs in 7 innings, including 2 home runs. He did strike out 7 and walk only 1, but threw a wild pitch…Gaby Martinez finished 3-4 with an RBI and Rhyne Hugheswas 2-5 with a solo home run in the top of the 9th that made it a 1-run game.
Sarasota 2, Vero Beach 1. Heath Rollins dropped to 4-7 after giving up 2 runs in 6 innings…Rocco Baldelli drove in the run with one of the D-Rays 2 hits.
Columbus 11, Rome 2. Brian Flores allowed only 1 unearned run in 7 innings. He struck out 5 and walked none and improved to 7-3.
Princeton 5, Greeneville 4 (10). Jeremy Beckham scored on an Elias Otero single with 2 outs in the 10th for the game-winner…Tim Beckham started at short and went 0-2 with a sac fly.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
Rocco Baldelli concluded his rehab assignment with Vero Beach. The Rays have yet to decide where Rocco will go next. [MLB]
Rays Digest takes a look at the Rays’ preseason top prospects and see how each is performing so far. [Rays Digest]
One year ago on Rays Index, The Professor visited Scott Kazmir at home to discuss his difficulty working deep in games. Kid K had a little trouble finishing the interview.
Strikeouts Are Fascist, Groundballs Are More Democratic [Rays Index]
The Tampa Bay Rays have averaged 26,613 fans for their 10 home dates in June. That nearly doubles the 13,999 that the Devil Rays averaged in June of 2007.
Unfortunately, as far as we can tell, none of the 836,453 fans that have attended Rays games at the Trop this season were Jenn Sterger.
WHERE IS JENN STERGER?!?!
For all the new fans jumping on the Tampa Bay Rays bandwagon this season, it is disturbing that the fanbase appears to have lost one of their more recognizable bodies faces.
Besides, we need an updated photo of miss Sterger in the new Rays colors.
THE GOOD: The Bullpen in general and Gary Glover and Jason Hammel specifically. Yes Hammel gave up the walk-off home run, but we thought the game was over when both Glover entered the game in the 9th and when Hammel came on in the 12th. The two combined for 4.2 innings with only 1 run on 3 hits and no walks. At some point they were going to give up a run and they did a great job of holding the Pirates at bay as long as they could.
THE BAD: The offense. From the 9th inning on, the Rays were 1-14 with 4 strike outs and no walks. Only two batters reached base: Evan Longoria with a 2-out single in the 9th and James Shields who reached on an error while pinch-hitting with 2 outs in the 12th.
THE TELLING: With Aki Iwamura starting his 3-game suspension, BJ Upton batted leadoff, Evan Longoria moved up to the 3-hole and Willy Aybar started at second base for the first time since 2006. Upton finished 1-5 with a walk…The Rays missed an opportunity to move back into first place as the Red Sox lost to the Astros.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
Aaron Sharockman spoke with Matthew Silverman about the Rays stadium proposal and the future of baseball in the bay area. [St. Pete Times]
Marc Topkin writes about the Rays and all the trade rumors circulating recently. [St. Pete Times]
Durham 6, Norfolk 3. Mitch Talbot improved to 7-6 after holding Norfolk to 1 run in 6.2 innings. He struck out 4 and walked none…Chris Richard (15) and Joel Guzman (15) homered for the Bulls. Guzman finished 3-4 with 3 RBI. Fernando Perez was 2-5 and Justin Ruggiano added 2 hits in 4 at bats…Reid Brignac did not play.
Mobile 5, Montgomery 3. Jino Gonzalez started but was pulled after 2 innings. He had not allowed a run…John Jaso went 2-4 with a walk. He is hitting .254.
Sarasota 6, Vero Beach 0. Brandon Mann dropped to 3-9 after giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 11 hits in 5 innings…The D-Rays managed only 4 hits.
Columbus 5, Rome 4. Alex Cobb gave up 3 runs in 6.1 innings, all on solo home runs…Greg Sexton was 3-5 with 2 RBI, including the walk-off single with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th.
Princeton 8, Burlington 7 (11). Tim Beckham went 1-4 with 2 walks and 2 strike outs. He played shortstop for the first time and did make a throwing error on his first fielding chance. He later handle two ground balls, a pop up and a line drive. In 3 games he is 2-11 (both singles).
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
Josh Kalk of The Hardball Times was in attendance for Tim Beckham’s debut and gives us his impressions. [The Hardball Times]
While he only went one for four with an infield hit Tim Beckham showed some of the tools that made him the first overall pick in the draft. By signing early he is only helping himself getting a jump on other high draft picks that have yet to sign. I would be very surprised if rookie ball gave Beckham much of a challenge and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was promoted to Single-A ball late in the year. The Rays could also leave him partnered with his brother Jeremy in rookie ball all year to aid his comfort level. I’ll be checking in with the Beckhams throughout the year so look for more updates as the season goes on.
“Obviously they’ve been picking at the top part of the draft for the better part of a decade now and they haven’t missed with those picks. When you draft number one overall, you have to get a franchise-type player and they have. They’ve got plenty of them and they’ve done a great job drafting lower down as well and developing their players…”
There is only one small problem with that assessment:
Number of “number one overall” players on the Rays’ roster: 0
Prior to David Price, last season and Tim Beckham this season, the Rays have only drafted #1 two times, one of which was Josh Hamilton in 1999, whom the Rays lost in the Rule 5 draft.
Certainly one can say that the other top pick (Delmon Young in 2003) helped shape this roster as Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were acquired in an off-season trade for Young. But that is still only one “number one overall” player that has led to the Rays success this season and Andrew Friedman and Co. deserve a little more credit for that trade than just “they have sucked for 10 years.”
Also, the Rays are far from the only team that has consistently drafted near the top of the draft for the last 10 years (Pirates, Royals, etc.) and yet the Rays are the only team that consistently drafts and develops top-rate players.
And while the Red Sox may not draft near the top, they have become experts in the art form of hording compensation picks for lost free agents. In the last four drafts alone, the Red Sox have selected 13 players before the second round.
Let’s reword Epstein’s statement to reflect why the Red Sox have been so successful…
“Obviously they’ve been picking tons of players in the first round of the draft for the better part of a decade now and they haven’t missed with those picks. When you draft 13 first round players in four years, a team is bound to hit the bullseye a couple of times even if their eyes are shut. They’ve got plenty of them and they’ve done a great job hording compensation picks as well as copying the organizational philosophy of the Evil Empire by throwing $100 million at a pitcher that might win 16 games…”
We are not sure if this video has made the rounds before. Certainly it is the first time we have seen it. But it is interesting to see Scott Kazmir pitching at the Trop while still in high school. It is also a little funny to see Kid K introduce himself as a pitcher and outfielder.
Maybe it wasn’t Jim Duquette’s fault afterall. Maybe it was fate.
