88 wins for the Rays, as predicted by PECOTA in the preseason:

The Rays as of today, sit at 24-17. In order to win 88 games, they need to only go 64-57. In other words, they have played 7-over .500 in the first quarter of the season and need only play 7-over over the last 121 games. Also keep in mind that the Rays have already played 10 of their 18 games against the Yankees but have only played 6 of their 18 games versus the Sox. That leaves 20 games against those two monsters. If they only win 5 of those games, they will have to go 59-42 against the rest of the league. Not impossible, but not easy either. So the key is splitting those games against the two-headed AL East monster. The Yankees games don’t scare us. Those 12 against the Sox do. UNDER

.340 batting average for Dioner Navarro:

Entering the weekend series Navi is hitting .387. His line drive percentage sits at a strong 22.4% but his EqA is only .311 and he has almost twice as many strikeouts as walks (9 to 5). What Navi does have going for him is he only has 75 at bats so far, which means he is rested (although he was stronger in the second half of ’07) and individual hits will add more to his average. And, he has a 47 point cushion right now. But Navi’s biggest problem is his speed. He just isn’t going to benefit from the occasional infield single. He will hit .300 and he might even hit .320. But he will not hit .340. UNDER

17 wins for Andy Sonnanstine:

We are 1/4 the way through the season and Duke has 5 wins and is on pace to win 20 and he is on the hill tonight. So far this season, in 8 starts, Sonny has allowed 4 runs or more 5 times. He has W’s in 2 of those starts. His Expected wins and losses are 2.4 and 2.9, meaning Sonny has been very lucky so far. A more likely win total for Duke is 12-13. UNDER

25 home runs for Evan Longoria:

So far Longoria has 4 long balls in 31 games and is hitting a home run about once every 30 at bats. If he plays everyday and gets another 520 plate appearances over the course of the regular season, that would be another 17 home runs, which would give him 21. Dirtbag has looked lost at times and has not hit lefties at all. We have to assume that he will start to get more comfortable as the season progresses and that rate will pick up. Even if it is just a little, he should be good for 27-28 home runs. OVER

2 errors for Akinori Iwamura at second base:

This has been an amazing run. Aki has ZERO errors in the first 40 games he has played. And it is not for an absence of error opportunities. We have seen Aki range up the middle and make tough throws after spinning back towards first. Those are easy to throw away. He has been a part of 35 double-plays so far and is yet to make an errant toss to Bartlett or make a wild throw throw to first base. It has been said better by others, but outside of catcher, second base is the hardest position to learn, because so much of it is “feel” because the player often has his back to the runner or to the base he is throwing to. Last year Placido Palanco won the gold glove and did not commit a single error. So it is possible. But we have to think that eventually Aki is going to boot a couple, probably more than a couple. OVER

1.5 Wins for the Rays in this series against the Cardinals:

The Cardinals are 24-19 and 15-9 at home. Also, the Rays will play this series without their top 2 starters and without their DH (Cliff Floyd). We feel that a little luster of the season will come off this weekend. UNDER



  1. kyle says:

    Must be Burst My Bubble Day.....thanks Cork.

  2. DirtbagFan says:

    Way to ruin the mood... geez!

  3. Possum Avenger says:

    You really don't think this team will win 88 games? Jeez.

  4. The Professor says:

    remember. my choices were MORE than 88 or LESS than 88. if I have to choose between let's say, 86 or 90...I think 86 is more likely.

  5. SaberToothedPie says:

    PECOTA updated their predictions in late april and gave us 90 wins.

  6. Chalk says:

    Professor Pessimism returns....

    I think you're hyping the Cards a little too much. Their records are good at home and overall -- but they've had like 6 games against the Giants and the rest against the NL Central. And they were like 3-7 in their last 10 coming into this series....

    Have a little faith (says the guy who waited until we won the opener to point all this out....)


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