May 16
Over/Unders:
88 wins for the Rays, as predicted by PECOTA in the preseason:
The Rays as of today, sit at 24-17. In order to win 88 games, they need to only go 64-57. In other words, they have played 7-over .500 in the first quarter of the season and need only play 7-over over the last 121 games. Also keep in mind that the Rays have already played 10 of their 18 games against the Yankees but have only played 6 of their 18 games versus the Sox. That leaves 20 games against those two monsters. If they only win 5 of those games, they will have to go 59-42 against the rest of the league. Not impossible, but not easy either. So the key is splitting those games against the two-headed AL East monster. The Yankees games don’t scare us. Those 12 against the Sox do. UNDER
.340 batting average for Dioner Navarro:
Entering the weekend series Navi is hitting .387. His line drive percentage sits at a strong 22.4% but his EqA is only .311 and he has almost twice as many strikeouts as walks (9 to 5). What Navi does have going for him is he only has 75 at bats so far, which means he is rested (although he was stronger in the second half of ’07) and individual hits will add more to his average. And, he has a 47 point cushion right now. But Navi’s biggest problem is his speed. He just isn’t going to benefit from the occasional infield single. He will hit .300 and he might even hit .320. But he will not hit .340. UNDER
17 wins for Andy Sonnanstine:
We are 1/4 the way through the season and Duke has 5 wins and is on pace to win 20 and he is on the hill tonight. So far this season, in 8 starts, Sonny has allowed 4 runs or more 5 times. He has W’s in 2 of those starts. His Expected wins and losses are 2.4 and 2.9, meaning Sonny has been very lucky so far. A more likely win total for Duke is 12-13. UNDER
25 home runs for Evan Longoria:
So far Longoria has 4 long balls in 31 games and is hitting a home run about once every 30 at bats. If he plays everyday and gets another 520 plate appearances over the course of the regular season, that would be another 17 home runs, which would give him 21. Dirtbag has looked lost at times and has not hit lefties at all. We have to assume that he will start to get more comfortable as the season progresses and that rate will pick up. Even if it is just a little, he should be good for 27-28 home runs. OVER
2 errors for Akinori Iwamura at second base:
This has been an amazing run. Aki has ZERO errors in the first 40 games he has played. And it is not for an absence of error opportunities. We have seen Aki range up the middle and make tough throws after spinning back towards first. Those are easy to throw away. He has been a part of 35 double-plays so far and is yet to make an errant toss to Bartlett or make a wild throw throw to first base. It has been said better by others, but outside of catcher, second base is the hardest position to learn, because so much of it is “feel” because the player often has his back to the runner or to the base he is throwing to. Last year Placido Palanco won the gold glove and did not commit a single error. So it is possible. But we have to think that eventually Aki is going to boot a couple, probably more than a couple. OVER
1.5 Wins for the Rays in this series against the Cardinals:
The Cardinals are 24-19 and 15-9 at home. Also, the Rays will play this series without their top 2 starters and without their DH (Cliff Floyd). We feel that a little luster of the season will come off this weekend. UNDER
May 16
THE GOOD: Scott Kazmir. In the first 5 innings, Kazmir only allowed 1 hit. He went 6, giving up 3 hits and 3 walks. He struck out 3…Right off the bat, we get yet another gold glove play by Evan Longoria at third base, diving to his left to rob Jonny Damon of a basehit…We actually are not that big a fan of the shift that Joe Maddon uses on Jason Giambi and David Ortiz. We have seen stats that show that it really doesn’t make a difference, but it did yesterday. With Akinori Iwamura playing rover in shallow right, Giambi lined right to Aki in the 2nd inning. That was a basehit otherwise…Shawn Riggans made the most of his first start in almost 2 weeks. Diesel went 2-3, but the big hit was the 2-run, no-doubt-about-it, home run in the 4th that made the score 4-0.
THE BAD: Scott Kazmir’s fastball. In his first start of the season, Kaz struggled as his fastball topped out at 88-90. In his last start, his confidence seemed to come back as his fastball was back up in the mid-90s. But last night, he was once again topping at 88-90…Scott Kazmir’s pitch count. Once again, Kaz was at 100 pitches after 6 innings and could not come out for the 7th. Some pitchers have personal catchers. Kazmir needs a personal bullpen caddy to get him to the back end of the bullpen…Ben Zobrist was hit by a pitch in his first plate appearance of the season…Later on in that 3rd inning, the Rays would load the bases with no outs but only scored 1 run on a sac fly by Carl Crawford. That situation with the meat of the order up should be at least 2 runs. No excuse…When are the bad calls going to stop? Scott Kazmir had the runner picked off in the 4th inning, but called safe.
THE TELLING: The words “Gary Glover is in to pitch” scares us…Dioner Navarro got the day off for the day-game-after-the-night-game. He had started 9 games in a row…Jason Batlett was a late scratch for “personal reasons”…The Rays are now a full 2 games up in the loss column on the Sox in the East and the A’s and O’s in the Wild Card…
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
- Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
- This past week has been a Rays Love-Fest in the New York Times. “Rays Provide Yanks Glimpse of What Could Be”. Nice. [New York Times]
- The Rays pitched their financing plan for the proposed waterfront stadium to the St. Pete City Council. Aaron Sharockman, who is to the new stadium what Pedro Gomez is to Barry Bonds, outlines the plan. [St. Pete Times]
- DRays Bay has an interview with Aaron Sharockman. [DRays Bay]
- Fangraphs takes a closer look at how much better the Rays bullpen has been in ’08. [Fangraphs]
- One site compares the Rays ’08 numbers to the AL playoff teams of the past two seasons. The pitching ranks near the top of the group but they don’t see the bullpen maintaining their dominance and so far the offense is not playoff-caliber. [Freedom, Glory, America]
- Rob Neyer predicts that the Rays will have BJ Upton signed to a long-term extension by the all-star break. He also, notes that after that, there will be no more excuses for the fans to not support a first-place team with all their young talent locked up. [ESPN]
Really, other than perhaps Matt Garza, the only remaining Ray who’s worth locking up is B.J. Upton. No, he’s probably not as good as his little brother. But he’s 23 and his best years are ahead of him, and he’s going to play in at least a few All-Star games.
Speaking of All-Star games, I’m guessing B.J. Upton’s locked up before this year’s Classic. At which point — assuming the Rays are still playing well — the locals will have no remaining excuse for not showing up to watch their team. At the moment, though, Tampa Bay ranks 13th in the American League in attendance. Not real good for a first-place team that’s locked up nearly all of its good young players.
- Her Rays has a picture of Scott Kazmir that is RI-diculous. [Her Rays]
- Sports Talk makes a comparison that we have screamed about in the past when naysayers say that the Tampa-St. Pete area won’t support baseball. They compare the ’08 Rays to the ’97 Bucs. We vividly remember a time when we would go see the Bucs play the Packers and seeing more Packers fans than Bucs fans. [Sports Talk]
May 16
Toledo 6, Durham 5. Chris Mason has yet to put together back-to-back strong outings. After throwing 5 shutout innings, his last time out, he was touched for 6 runs in 5.2 innings last night. He looked decent until the 6th inning, when he gave up 2 home runs…With runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 9th inning, Jon Weber went down looking to end the game…Dan Johnson continues to swing a hot stick. Last night he was 3-4 with 2 doubles and his 6th home run to go with 4 RBI. His 2-run home run in the 8th made it a 1-run game. Johnson has 6 home runs in just 70 AAA at bats as well as a 1.131 OPS…Reid Brignac was 2-4 with his 3rd stolen base.
Montgomery 8, Tennessee 7. Patrick Cotrell won it in the bottom of the 9th with a single that plated 2…Jake McGee allowed 4 runs (1 earned) in 5.1 innings. He struck out 3 and walked 1…Chris Nowak was 3-5 with his 3rd home run and 2 RBI…Rhyne Hughes added 2 singles and 2 RBI and Ronnie Merrill also added 2 hits in 4 at bats.
Palm Beach 5, Vero Beach 4. Ryan Morse allowed only 1 unearned run in 5 innings on 6 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 3…Cesar Suarez and JT Hall provided 2 hits and an RBI apiece.
Hickory 10, Columbus 2. Jason Ragan was pulled after allowing 7 runs (all unearned) in just 1.2 innings. He did allow 8 hits, but 3 errors in those 2 innings didn’t help…Henry Wrigley was 2-3 with his 3rd home run, a solo shot.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- Wade Townsend has been demoted to high-A Vero Beach…Townsend, who has adjusted his mechanics to avoid further injuries, had just been inserted into the Montgomery rotation, but was knocked around in his last start. On the season, he had posted a 7.66 ERA in 13 appearances with a 17-to-17 strike out to walk ratio. [Biscuits Batter]
