Apr 21
Payroll to be at least $54 million and Andrew Friedman will have several tough decisions to make
It is an off-day in the Raysiverse, and with all the recent roster moves and contract extensions, we thought today would be a good day to look ahead to 2009. Roster projections are based only on players currently in the organization, lest we get fined for tampering from the league for talking about players in other organizations.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today and shaded players do not project to be on the opening day roster.
- The biggest shake-up will come from that great draft class of 2004 as several of those players will have to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Players that have to be added to the roster include Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Chris Mason, Eduardo Morlan, Ryan Royster and Mike Wlodarczyk. The only player in that group that might be left exposed is Royster.
- The Rays have 8 players that will be arbitration eligible following this season. Salaries for those players are guestimations at this point and will be heavily influenced by how they perform this season.
- The opening day payroll projects to be $54.4 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Kazmir, Garza). Look for the 2009 opening day payroll to be $60-65 million which is well within the range of playoff-caliber teams.
- This leaves 9 players in the current organization that will not be with the team in 2009. Three of these players are free agents and Al Reyes and Eric Hinske could both certainly be traded this season. Rocco Baldelli will almost certainly be back in the organization on an incentive-laiden minor league contract and thus not on the 40-man roster. Scott Dohmann, Joel Guzman, Nathan Haynes, Kurt Birkins and JK Ryu will be out of options and will either be traded or cut loose.
Now let’s take a look at what this means for the 25-man opening day roster (notes can be found following the roster)…
- There are 3 big question marks, right field, short stop and the starting rotation.
- We could see any of Jonny Gomes, Justin Ruggiano or Fernando Perez in right field. But most likely this is the one position that is likely to be filled from outside the organization.
- Jason Bartlett will most likely start the year at shortstop, but look for Reid Brignac to get similar treatment in ’09 as Evan Longoria got this year.
- The bench is completely up in the air. Ben Zobrist and Shawn Riggans might be locks.
- The top three spots in the rotation are safe. We know how much the team loves Edwin Jackson, and Jeff Niemann will be out of options. If Niemann is not in the rotation in ’09 then we can write him off as ever being a significant contributor.
- The bullpen is surprisingly set. Al Reyes will be gone and JP Howell will almost certainly be back. Andy Sonnanstine is in the bullpen if Jeff Niemann or Edwin Jackson is out. He is in the rotation if not with the final bullpen spot likely going to Scott Dohmann.
Apr 21
Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.
Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!
Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…
Apr 21
Barack Obama, Dan Johnson, Dioner Navarro, Edwin Jackson, Evan Longoria, Frank Thomas, Jeff Niemann, Jonny Gomes, Justin Ruggiano, Matt Garza, Mike DiFelice, Stuart Sternberg Cork Gaines
THE GOOD: The Bullpen? Are we the only ones that think a huge bullpen implosion is just waiting to happen? Yesterday, four relievers combined for 4.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk and no runs, while striking out 5. The bullpen now has an ERA of 2.70, a number that is unfathomable for a Tampa Bay relief corps.
THE BAD: Edwin Jackson’s last two starts. Since pitching shutout ball for 8, 2-hit innings against the M’s, Nuke has allowed 11 runs on 11 hits and 7 walks in 9.1 innings. That line looks an awful lot like the ’07 Jackson…The offense. 9 strikeouts and ZERO walks. After Sunday’s shutout, their second of the year, the Rays have now been held to 2 runs or less in 6 games.
THE TELLING: Since the 4th game of the year the Rays are averaging only 4.2 runs per game. The offense is supposed to be catching up to the pitchers not losing ground…The Rays are now 2-5 in their last 7 and 5-10 in their last 15…The Rays have used 5 people in right field but so far they haven’t been too terrible. So far Rays right fielders have hit .281-4-9 with an .854 OPS. Delmon Young is hitting .236-0-6 with an .559 OPS…Jonny Gomes is hitting .304/.429/.565 versus right handed pitchers.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
- The Rays finally added Dan Johnson to the 25-man roster with Jeff Niemann being optioned to Durham giving Justin Ruggiano a stay of demotion until Matt Garza is promoted on Friday to start that night. With the off-day, Andy Sonnanstine will move a spot and make the start on Thursday. Marc Topkin also suggested that Mike DiFelice will be DFA’d on Tuesday to make room for Dioner Navarro. [The Heater]
- Rays of Light questions the move of adding Dan Johnson, noting that he adds less flexibility to the roster, not more…We have to agree that the Rays won’t be printing any Dan Johnson jerseys as his tenure with the Rays is likely to be a short one. Look for Johnson to be DFA’d once people start returning from injuries. [Rays of Light]
- MLB Trade Rumors has a bunch of links and discussion on the Evan Longoria deal. [MLB Trade Rumors]
- Fanhouse thinks the new deal for Evan Longoria is a bad deal for the Rays because of the risk that Longoria will be a bust. We don’t have a link, but if you go back and look at the top hitting prospects in Baseball America’s annual lists you will see that hitting prospects almost never bust. The worst they become is usually an average player. Pitching prospects on the other hand bust all the time. This is a great deal for the Rays. [Fanhouse]
- Portfolio.com wonders if the Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki deals signal an end to baseball’s mega-deals…That may be a little extreme considering the Mets just gave Johan Santana $137.5 million. [Portfolio.com]
- Rays Digest wonders if the Rays would be interested in Frank Thomas…Thomas is angry and he would very likely welcome another AL East suitor for a chance to play the Jays 18-19 times this season. And he is sufficiently motivated to resume his role as the “Big Hurt”. He would also certainly be cheap as the Jays are still paying his $8 million salary this year. Still, we have to wonder how Thomas fits with the Rays who already have Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes at DH. Thomas is less of a fielder than Barry Bonds. And is Thomas really that much better than Floyd? [Rays Digest]
- Beyond the Boxscore also takes a look at the Rays as one of several potential suitors for Frank Thomas. [Beyond the Boxscore]
- We love that the Yankees super-duo of Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes is struggling so far this year. As much time as we spend in New York, it was starting to reach ludicrous levels this off-season with Yankees fans and Red Sox fans fighting over which team had the best rotation in baseball. And time after time, Yankees fans would talk about Kennedy and Hughes as if they were locks to win 17-20 games this season. [Baseball Musings]
- Our new friends at Hugging Harold Reynolds are having a fundraiser to try and get enough money to “hire” the real Harold Reynolds to blog at their site. [Hugging Harold Reynolds]
- One blogger compares Stuart Sternberg to Barack Obama, both beacons of change. [The Year Is Coming]
Now, if Obama could be as successful turning our country around as Sternberg and Matthew Silverman (president/GM) has been turning the Devil Rays around, I wouldn’t be surprised if within three years, we all have global health care and Iraq has a settled, stable government.
Apr 21
Durham @ Norfolk ppd (rain).
Jacksonville 10, Montgomery 4. In a battle of top pitching prospects Clayton Kershaw outdueled Wade Davis. The game was tied at 2 after 6 innings. Davis gave up a walk and 2 singles to start the 7th before being pulled. All three runners would score. In all, Davis allowed 7 hits, 3 walks and 5 runs (4 earned). He struck out 1. The Biscuits managed only 2 hits and 2 unearned runs in 5.2 innings off of Kershaw…Four Biscuits had 2 hits apiece including Matt Spring who hit his 2nd home run.
Vero Beach 12, Brevard Co. 4. Matt Garza cruised through the first 2 innings on 20 pitches. However a walk followed by 3 hits in the 3rd led to 3 runs…Dioner Navarro was 3-5 with a 3-run home run…Quinn Stewart was 3-5 with a pair of 3-run home runs and drove in a 7th run when he was hit with the bases loaded…Matt Fields was 4-4 with a home run.
Charleston 11, Columbus 7. Alex Cobb gave up 5 runs (3 earned) in 5.1 innings and dropped to 2-2. He did not allow a run until 2 outs in the 5th when he surrendered a solo home run and then the flood gates opened in the 6th…Cody Cipriano and Henry Wrigley each homered for the Catfish.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- Matt Garza only threw 39 of his 70 pitches for strikes in his rehab start, but afterwards said he felt fine. [MLB]
“I felt good. I got some good work in,” said Garza. “The best part is I’m pain-free.”
- Quinn Stewart’s 2 home runs and 7 RBI helped pull him out of his early season slump in a big way. [MiLB]
Subscribe
RECENT COMMENTS