Archive for April 14th, 2008

Apr 14

[ROTATION] Rays Could Choose To Keep All The Starting Pitchers Once Healthy

Rotation Battle Royal Cork Gaines 20 Comments »

The following is not a typo…

The Rays are being carried by their pitching staff, one of the best in baseball.

After 12 games the Rays are 6-6 but it could be a lot worse if not for a team ERA of 3.86 good for 4th in the AL. In 2007 the Rays’ team ERA was 5.33. While the improved defense has ceraintly been a factor, the biggest difference may be the ability to throw strikes, walking 22.2% fewer batters this season. In 2007 the Rays walked 3.6 batters per 9 innings. So far in 2008, the Rays are walking 2.8 per 9 innings, good for 3rd in the AL. And this has been accomplished with staff ace Scott Kazmir on the shelf.

Despite strong early-season performances from Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann, the Rays will be forced to make a series of moves that will shake up the pitching staff sometime in May once Kazmir and Matt Garza reclaim their spots in the rotation.

Here is the projected rotation once everybody is healthy…

  1. Scott Kazmir
  2. James Shields
  3. Matt Garza
  4. Andy Sonnanstine
  5. Edwin Jackson

That means both Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann are out. If (and that’s a 6’9″ *if*) Niemann continues to pitch as well as he looked yesterday, it will be hard to justify sending him back to Durham. And there is the issue of Hammel’s minor league options. He has none.

The obvious play is for the Rays to trade either Hammel or Jackson. DRays Bay throws out some numbers that show Jackson has been lucky so far, and suggest that the Rays would be better off selling high on Jackson and keeping Hammel. The Rays will also certainly consider service time when deciding whom to trade. Jackson will be arbitration eligible at the end of the season and will be due a big pay raise, especially if he can continue to pitch well.

While we are certain that Andrew Firedman will be working the Blackberry in the next few weeks, a trade is far from a forgone conclusion, especially early in the season. So the question becomes: What do the Rays do with the surplus of pitching if they are unable to find a trade partner?

Keep ‘em all, of course.

If the Rays cannot trade Hammel or Jackson, Hammel would have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the minors (not likely). The only other option is to send Hammel to the bullpen. JP Howell made the bullpen as a long reliever out of spring training, but Joe Maddon has not been afraid to use him in shorter stints in meaningful games early in the season. That leaves an opening for Hammel to assume the role of long reliever. The Rays would then have to DFA Scott Dohmann who would be the 8th man in a 7-man bullpen.

That leaves Niemann. The most likely scenario has Niemann heading back to Durham as insurance for the rotation against any further injuries. However, there is a scenario that keeps him a Rays uniform.

During spring training, pitching coach Jim Hickey expressed that he would not be afraid to use Andy Sonnanstine in the bullpen. In fact, he seemed to prefer Sonnanstine in the bullpen over other options…

According to Hickey, it’s rare that [Sonnanstine or Howell] reports soreness in his arm the day after starting, neither takes particularly long to get warmed up, and both can be relied upon to come in and throw strikes even if they haven’t pitched in a few days…”You kind of target those guys,” Hickey said. “You don’t just take anybody and say ‘This guy’s capable of being a relief pitcher.’”

This suggests that Hickey, Madden and Friedman consider Sonnanstine to be a relief pitcher in the long run. If Niemann stayed in the rotation and Sonny was moved to the bullpen, the Rays would have to DFA a second relief pitcher. Anybody have a problem with Gary Glover being pushed out the door? Neither do we.

With or without a trade, here is what the Rays pitching staff could look like at the end of May…

Rotation:

  1. Kazmir
  2. Shields
  3. Garza
  4. Jackson
  5. Niemann

Bullpen:

  1. Percival
  2. Reyes
  3. Wheeler
  4. Miller
  5. Howell
  6. Sonnanstine
  7. Hammel (or relief pitcher acquired via trade for Hammel)

DFA:

  1. Dohmann
  2. Glover

If this is how the pitching staff shakes out, it would be our contention that for the first time in the 11 year history of the franchise, the Rays would have 12 major league pitchers on the staff…and our 12th Raysmas wish would come true.

Apr 14

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Tampa Bay Rays Confidence Survey

Confidence graph Cork Gaines No Comments »

Last week’s Rays Confidence Graph results.

Below you will see two polls that ask about your confidence in the Tampa Bay Rays. Please take a moment to answer each question. We will present these same polls every Monday. The results will be presented in graphical form on Wednesday, and will be displayed permanently in the sidebar. The goal of the Confidence Graph is to get a feeling of how Rays fans feel about the team and the franchise and track how that level of confidence changes through time. Thanks!

Raysiverse events of the past week that could impact confidence levels…

  • The Rays are 6-6, 1 game behind Baltimore and Toronto in the AL East. During the week, the Rays lost 2 of 3 to the Mariners and won 2 of 3 from the Orioles.
  • As a team, the Rays are hitting .248 (10th in the AL), .330 OBP (6th), .401 SLG (7th) with 15 home runs (T-3rd) and 13 stolen bases (2nd).
  • As a team the Rays pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA (7th in the AL) with 72 strikeouts (7th) and 33 walks (3rd).
  • Cliff Floyd and Matt Garza both went down with injuries and could be out 4-6 weeks.
  • The Rays may, or may not have been, cursed by a certain 90s boy band.
  • Not sure what the big deal is about Al Reyes birthday celebration. Sounds like every birthday we have had since we turned 4. Of course that is what happens when nobody has to work on your birthday or on the day after. We are blessed like that.
  • Evan Longoria made his major league debut.
  • The successfully pushed Evan Longoria’s free agency clock back one year.
  • And then Jeff Niemann made his major league debut a memorable one.

Apr 14

[DOWN ON THE FARM] Jeremy Hellickson Is Better Prepared In 2008

Chris Richard, Jeremy Hellickson Cork Gaines No Comments »

Durham 2, Scranton WB 0. With Jeff Niemann getting the call to Tampa Bay, Kevin Lynn made his first start for the Bulls and posted a strange line. In 4.2 innings, he only allowed 1 hit and no runs, but he did walk 4…Grant Balfour pitched the final 3 innings for the save. He did not give up a hit, only walking 1…Fernando Perez drove in both runs with a double in the 5th…Reid Brignac did not play.

Carolina 9, Montgomery 2. Mike Wlodarczyk got knocked around for 5 runs in 4.1 innings…Wade Townsend pitched a perfect 8th with a strikeout…The Biscuits had 11 hits and 3 walks but managed only 2 runs, with 1 coming from Erold Andrus with a solo home run as the first batter of the game.

Savannah 11, Columbus 7. Jeremy Hall struck out 5 in 5 innings, allowing 2 runs but the bullpen would allow 9 runs in the final 2 innings…4 Catfish had 2 hits apiece including Stephen Vogt who had a double and a triple and drove in 3.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

  • Baseball America talks to Rays pitching coordinator Dick Bosman about Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson is the Rays 8th best prospect on our Meta-Analysis of top prospects. Bosman says that Hellickson came to camp bettered prepared than he did in years past, noting that Hellian is at a point this year that he did not reach until June or July a year ago. [Baseball America]


“He’s starting to figure out what spring training is about,” Rays pitching coordinator Dick Bosman said. “He’s finally figuring out that winter time is when you get stronger and you prepare for spring training, so that when you go to spring training, you prepare for the season. And the last couple years before this one, he kind of used spring training and extended spring to get ready for the year. This year he has responded very well.”

  • The Herald-Sun interviews the Bulls’ Chris Richard who is in his 14th pro season. [Herald-Sun]
Apr 14

[THE HANGOVER] Jeff Niemann Dominates In Debut

Akinori Iwamura, Brendan Harris, Jason Bartlett, Jeff Niemann Cork Gaines 3 Comments »


THE GOOD: Jeff Niemann. After barely surviving a first inning in which he loaded the bases with only one out, he got out of it without allowing a run. He followed that up by facing only 2 over the minimum until he gave up a lead off home run in the 6th. Even the home run was a good sign. The Rays had just put a 6-spot on the board in the bottom of the 5th. A lot of pitchers would still try to be too fancy at that point. That is when a pitcher will start walking batters which leads to big innings. Not Niemann. He started going right after the batters in the 6th. Letting them put the ball in play. Funny, but that is one time when a home run does not bother us…How much bat speed and strength does BJ Upton have? He hit his 3-run HR without even getting his arms extended. The ball was up and in on him and he still hit a no-doubter…Great slide by Mike DiFelice to score the Rays’ third run on a single by Carl Crawford. DiFelice slid towards the infield-side of the plate to avoid the tag…Trever Miller came on with the bases loaded and the tying run at the plate in the 7th and got Rays killer, Aubrey Huff to strike out. Miller, Al Reyes and Troy Percival retired the final 7 batters of the game. So this is what a major league bullpen looks like.

THE BAD: JP Howell could not get an out (3 batters) and Dan Wheeler relieved him and ended up walking in a run…The Rays have been not-so-good on the basepaths early in the season. With the bases loaded and 1 out in the 5th, Carl Crawford roped a single scoring 2. For some reason Akinori Iwamura does not advance to third on the throw home. Ironic that his brain fart occurred on the same play that had Mike DiFelice making a great base running play. And it did not hurt the Rays as Aki would later score on BJ Upton’s home run, but still a surprising lack of aggressiveness on the base paths…Jason Bartlett made his second error of the season, only the second error all year for the Rays’ infielders.

THE TELLING: Like any tall pitcher, you will always know when Jeff Niemann is on when he is hitting spots LOW in the strike zone. All pitchers struggle keeping the ball down. But when your 6’9″ it is that much harder…JP Howell is now starting to be used as a short-inning guy. Might Jason Hammel move to the pen (once everybody is healthy) and become the long reliever, with Scott Dohmann being sent packing?…The Yankees had a night game in Boston that did not end until after midnight. They were lucky if they were in their hotel in Tampa by 7am.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • The “Rays Index Live BLOG-A-BALOO of the week” will be tomorrow night and it will be held at the RAYSHEAD Facebook Group. So be sure to stop by and take part in the shenanigans as Edwin Jackson mows down the Yankees…or takes a dump on the mound reminding us that he is still Edwin Jackson. [RAYSHEAD Facebook Group]
  • Her Rays is excited about yesterday’s win. She uses an exclamation point seven times. [Her Rays]
  • Joe Maddon was very impressed with Jeff Niemann’s major league debut. Then again, Papa Joe thought the Titanic had a solid debut, so forgive us if we just go on our own observations. Yep. Niemann was impressive. [MLB]

“Jeff was very impressive today,” manager Joe Maddon said. “Being able to throw a strike with a breaking ball when you’re down in the count in the American League is huge…He had a good look about him,” Maddon said. “He was very confident going into the game.”

  • Next up for the Rays is a 2-game set versus the Yankees at the Trop. [MLB]
  • Tampa Bay Sports Blog is not impressed with what they have seen from the Rays so far even going so far as to say that the defense “is not improved, it’s possibly worse” and “swapping Brendan Harris for Jason Bartlett was a huge mistake.”…Yikes. Yes…Jason Bartlett has two errors. He had almost 30 in 2007. He is going to throw a ball away every once and a while. But what does not show up in box scores and doesn’t translate very well to TV is that Bartlett will field many, many, MANY more balls than Brendan Harris can. We saw on numerous occasions last year, ground balls that should have been routine, scoot into the outfield. We remember seeing Harris dive for balls after taking only one step. His range is AWFUL. And Akinori Iwamura has been nothing short of amazing at second base. He is turning double plays like he has played the position his entire life. And outside of catcher, second base is the hardest position to learn because half the time you have your back to the runners. It is much more than catch-and-throw. The defense is better. The Rays are 4th in the AL with a .728 Defensive Efficiency Rating after being last in 2007. [Tampa Bay Sports Blog]
  • Oh, and look what we have here. Brittany Ghiroli praising the Rays infield defense. That’s why we love Ms. Ghiroli. She’s always got our backs. [MLB]

With the offense looking sluggish, particularly during a four-game losing skid last week, the dazzling infield play has helped steer the Rays toward greener pastures.